[Tanada]

I have seen a lot of contradictory predictions for the coming winter, some say the Polar Vortex will dominate again this winter making North America cold and snowy. Others say El Nino will build in intensity until it swamps us with conditions like 1998.

Place your best guess here, is it time to top off the Propane tank, or save money on future heating?

[Subjectivist]

I dunno, but I sure hope the retailers have completely filled their propane storage so we don't run into the same issue we had last winter.

[Subjectivist]

The weather here in Ohio has been exceedingly odd the last two weeks. We went from November blizzards and arctic blasts to very mild. The ten day forecasts every day from now to Christmas Eve will be at or above freezing, which might even make this a contender as a record warm December.

I wish winter would act like winter and summer like summer, this unstable situation is unsettling.

[Tanada]

So far Polar Vortex is winning.

This first week of January might be giving you a strong feeling of deja vu. No, not just because you’re back at the gym as part of your New Year’s resolution or have sworn off champagne. Icy temperatures have descended once again on the Midwest and East Coast, almost exactly a year after the first popular mention of the weather pattern that spawned a thousand tweets, the polar vortex.

The current blast of cold air has forced Minneapolis to close its schools, given rise to #Chiberia 2.0 and sent wind chill values tumbling to minus-54 in Grand Marais, Minn. Major East Coast cities are expected to see wind chill values in negative territory Wednesday night and the Southeast will be getting a dose of the big chill in the latter half of the week.

But lest you forget, it’s a big world out there. The current cold outbreak is one week of weather affecting a fraction of a percent of the Earth’s area. Take the long view and it’s a bump in the road of an otherwise long string of ever-warmer months and years for the planet, with record setting heat in 2014 being the most recent signpost.

More at the link,
http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather ... 150108.htm

[Timo]

The temps in Fairbanks are unseasonably warm again this winter. They're on avg about 15 degrees above normal. It's still 0 or slightly below, but not the 25 to 30 below that they're used to. That tells me the cold has moved further south.

What do you suppose would happen if El Nino collided with the polar vortex? A Mediterranean Death Valley?

[Subjectivist]

Past experience suggests the polar vortex coincides with the California drought and the Triple-R, the ridiculously resilient high-pressure ridge in the north Pacific. It sends the jet stream askew. Anyone seen proof of the ridge's existence?

I think the meteorologists are afraid to call it that yet, but if it sticks around much longer they won't have any choice but admit we are repeating last winter.