[JackRussell]

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-30047096

Early last week, an Arabic hashtag that translates to 'Your job after oil runs out...' begun to trend mostly in Saudi Arabia but also in neighbouring Kuwait. Citizens of these countries used it to make jokes, but there was also serious contemplation of a future without their once abundant oil wealth. Some Saudis contemplated returning to a simpler life style and perhaps becoming shepherds. Others were a bit more pessimistic about their nation's future. "I'm unemployed and there are another million like me, so how much worse will it get when oil runs out?" one man commented on Twitter. Despite being the largest oil producer in the region, Saudi Arabia has had a longstanding issue with unemployment.

[GHung]

The entire Arabian Peninsula had a population of under 10 million in 1950; now somewhere around 100 million; this growth largely enabled by oil. Without the income, imigration, imports, and energy injections provided by petroleum, most of the area will revert to its carrying capacity (whatever's left of it) one way or another.

They're going to need more camels.

[SILENTTODD]

Camel races?

[ROCKMAN]

Obviously the KSA will have severe problems long before "the oil runs out". The KSA basically mothers much of its citizenship with oil revenue. Long before their production gets too low they'll have to create another revenue producer or face very significant internal strife.

[dashster]

http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-30047096

Despite being the largest oil producer in the region, Saudi Arabia has had a longstanding issue with unemployment.

A longstanding issue with unemployment hasn't stopped them from worker importation to the tune of 9 million in 2013.

[dashster]

The entire Arabian Peninsula had a population of under 10 million in 1950; now somewhere around 100 million; this growth largely enabled by oil.

That area has a high birth rate relative to the West. If it can support 100 million people in poverty (without any oil wealth), then I think that their growth rate, plus time would have had them at 100 million anyway. Birth rate goes down with increases in wealth, so without oil wealth it would have been even higher. That area could see an immediate decline in population of at least 10% if they kicked out their foreign workers.

[Kylon]

If I were Saudi Arabia I would focus on nuclear fission technology. It would provide the means to create weapons to protect themselves once they no longer have the protection of the United States (once their oil runs out so does their usefulness).

The Saudis could also take the nuclear technology were on perfecting it, and use breeder reactors to produce more fuel from things like thorium and U-238. This would give Saudi Arabia a large supply of energy.

The energy could be used to desalinate ocean water for farming, and also to create large amounts of electricity which could take the water, extract the hydrogen, and then use the hydrogen as a substitute in the Haber-Bosch process for the production of ammonia.

The ammonia could then be sold off to other countries as a fertilizer, chemical feedstock, as a fuel, and as an energy source.

This would effectively allow Saudi Arabia to have a thriving economy based off of fission technology, if they invested in it properly.

Plus they could be self-sufficient when it comes to water production, and have the ability to grow most of their own food.

It would also create a lot of jobs.

An added bonus is that since that part of the world is Muslim, and allows polygamy, all their brightest engineers, scientist, administrators and all the other people involved in creating this kind of society could have 4 wives with like 10-20 kids a piece. In a few generations they could have an entire sub-population of geniuses, who could then provide the intellectual power to keep the whole society going and growing, whereas in the West the least intelligent breed the most, and the most intelligent breed the least. They could use their religion and polygamy to the advantage of their whole society.


This of course would require long term foresight, if they could manage it though, their future could be quite prosperous.

[SILENTTODD]

If I were Saudi Arabia I would focus on nuclear fission technology. It would provide the means to create weapons to protect themselves once they no longer have the protection of the United States (once their oil runs out so does their usefulness).

Israel would not want a Nuclear capable Saudi Arabia any more than it would an Iranian one, and would prevail on the United States to prevent it.

If that is not possible, they'll do it themselves.

[DesuMaiden]

The entire Arabian Peninsula had a population of under 10 million in 1950; now somewhere around 100 million; this growth largely enabled by oil. Without the income, imigration, imports, and energy injections provided by petroleum, most of the area will revert to its carrying capacity (whatever's left of it) one way or another.

They're going to need more camels.

So you are saying there might be a population crash in the Arabian Pennisula.?..it is a good thing I don't live there.

[dashster]

If I were Saudi Arabia I would focus on nuclear fission technology. It would provide the means to create weapons to protect themselves once they no longer have the protection of the United States (once their oil runs out so does their usefulness).

Israel would not want a Nuclear capable Saudi Arabia any more than it would an Iranian one, and would prevail on the United States to prevent it.

If that is not possible, they'll do it themselves.

So they should start it now while they still have much needed oil. Force the United States to choose between the 51st state and a major liner of US politician pockets, and the oil-rich state.

[westexas]

Normalized values, 1995 to 2002, for Six Country Case History (major net oil exporters, excluding China, that hit or approached zero net exports from 1980 to 2010) follows. Note that as production increased slightly from 1995 to 1999, remaining post-1995 CNE (Cumulative Net Exports) fell by more than half. Empirically, a declining ECI Ratio (ratio of production to consumption) corresponded to a rapid rate of depletion in post-1995 CNE.



Normalized values, 2005 to 2012, for Saudi Arabia follows (the post-2005 CNE value is estimated). Note the decline in the ECI Ratio, which corresponded to a rapid rate of depletion in post-1995 CNE for the Six Country Case History. Also, note that the Six Country Case History showed an accelerating rate of depletion in remaining post-1995 CNE. In a similar fashion, we are seeing an accelerating rate of depletion in estimated remaining post-2005 CNE for Saudi Arabia.

[vox_mundi]

If I were Saudi Arabia I would focus on nuclear fission technology. It would provide the means to create weapons to protect themselves once they no longer have the protection of the United States (once their oil runs out so does their usefulness).

This might be practical advice for a nation with an educated population in science and technology, but 85% of PhDs in SA are in theology (comparative Wahhabism and such). Importing your nuclear engineers in this neighborhood seems a tad risky.

Analysts generally conclude that Saudi Arabia lacks the natural resources, technological capability, and scientific community necessary to develop an advanced nuclear weapons program.( "Saudi Arabia Country Profile: Nuclear Facilities Profiles," SIPRI, July 2004, http://www.sipri.org ; Lippman 2008.) Saudi scientists do not have experience in many integral facets of the nuclear fuel cycle that must be mastered to develop nuclear weapons. For example, Saudi Arabia does not have uranium deposits on its territory, so it lacks experience in uranium mining. Since the country does not have nuclear power facilities, its scientists also lack experience in enriching uranium for reactor fuel, nuclear fuel conversion, nuclear fuel fabrication, and operating nuclear reactors.(Yana Feldman, "Country Profile 8: Saudi Arabia," SIPRI, July 2004, http://www.sipri.org )

Why not use solar energy? It's free, and they have plenty of it. No nasty waste to clean up either.

The Saudis could also take the nuclear technology were on perfecting it, and use breeder reactors to produce more fuel from things like thorium and U-238. This would give Saudi Arabia a large supply of energy.

This is like suggesting they build a 'fusion' reactor. Several prototype Fast Breeder Reactors have been built, ranging in electrical output from a few light bulbs' equivalent (EBR-I, 1951) to over 1,000 MWe. As of 2006, the technology is not economically competitive to thermal reactor technology. The SNR-300 fast breeder reactor was finished after 19 years despite cost overruns summing up to a total of 3.6 billion Euros, only to then be abandoned. link The International Panel on Fissile Materials said "After six decades and the expenditure of the equivalent of tens of billions of dollars, the promise of breeder reactors remains largely unfulfilled and efforts to commercialize them have been steadily cut back in most countries".

It would also create a lot of jobs.

It would produce less than 5,000 permanent jobs in a country of 29,000,000. IMF indicates that the unemployment rate among Saudi nationals is 12%. The youth (30%) and females (35%). Saudi workers represented only 10.9% of the total number of workers in the private sector. link

An added bonus is that since that part of the world is Muslim, and allows polygamy, all their brightest engineers, scientist, administrators and all the other people involved in creating this kind of society could have 4 wives with like 10-20 kids a piece. In a few generations they could have an entire sub-population of geniuses, who could then provide the intellectual power to keep the whole society going and growing, whereas in the West the least intelligent breed the most, and the most intelligent breed the least. They could use their religion and polygamy to the advantage of their whole society.

Name 2 countries where the 'best and brightest' have risen to the top? Ever?

How, again, are they going to convince the least educated not to breed when their religion tells them otherwise? People don't stay in power too long on a platform like that. (they usually lose their heads - mobs are funny like that)

Anyway ...

The future will be 'bumpy' regardless ...

Saudi Arabia: Why succession could become a princely tussle
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29792691

[Tikib]

Sa talks about a solar future and given their huge deserts it's not impossible but like every other nation they will leave it for too late. That and their r Legion basically commands them to breed themselves out of existence.

[DesuMaiden]

They will have to start riding on camels again.

[SeaGypsy]

Some nutso ideas in here. Firstly the idea that rich intelligent Saudis want 4 wives & umpteen kids. There is nothing to suggest this is the case. Currently the biggest breeders in Saudi are simply sucking at the government's teat. There are millions of huge families with no other income. Also they pay less than half of local unemployment benefits to the slaves they bring from India, Pakistan & the Philippines. Why work when you can have 4 wives & 20 kids all bludging the system & have servants meanwhile?

Made me laugh, the comment 85% of Saudi PhD are in Theology. What a joke. A PhD in rape, beheading, amputation, lying to non Muslims etc. Islam is an evil crock of shit & their moon god is not going to save them.

I look forward to Saudi Arabia becoming the hell hole it deserves to be.

[ROCKMAN]

Gypsy - It might take a while but it's easy to see life in the KSA becoming truly miserable. Energy problems will damage every country to different degrees...including the US. But the survival of the KSA population is singularly tied to oil production.

BTW, speaking of multiple wives long ago I used to hang out with a group of Mormons. At one point the prospect of having two wives seemed possible but eventually I rejected the idea for good reason: dealing with one disappointed woman is bad enough. But two! Hell no.

[Tanada]

They will muddle on through like the rest of us. Oil will not suddenly stop, there will be a period of decline and severe adjustment. Really if they can not import Twinkies and coca-cola will it be the end of their civilization? They might have a sharp population adjustment but the odds are extremely high in 50 years the people living there will still call themselves Saudi and they will still in all likelihood be Islamic in faith.

[ROCKMAN]

"They will muddle on through like the rest of us." I have serious doubts about that. The KSA oil wealth has kept it population relative docile and protected from its enemies...of which it has a number.

And a more subtle point: what is a "Saudi Arabian"?

"The area of modern-day Saudi Arabia formerly consisted of four distinct regions: Hejaz, Najd, and parts of Eastern Arabia (Al-Ahsa) and Southern Arabia ('Asir). The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was founded in 1932 by Ibn Saud. He united the four regions into a single state through a series of conquests beginning in 1902 with the capture of Riyadh, the ancestral home of his family, the House of Saud. Saudi Arabia has since been an absolute monarchy, effectively a hereditary dictatorship governed along Islamic lines. The ultra-conservative Wahhabism religious movement within Sunni Islam has been called "the predominant feature of Saudi culture", with its global spreading largely financed by the oil and gas trade. Saudi Arabia is sometimes called "the Land of the Two Holy Mosques" in reference to Al-Masjid al-Haram (in Mecca), and Al-Masjid an-Nabawi (in Medina), the two holiest places in Islam. Petroleum was discovered in 1938 and followed up by several other finds in the Shia-majority Eastern Province."

So as long as the oil wealth allows one fanatic religious group to dominate another matters are relatively stable. And when there isn't enough revenue...what then?