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Funny U.S oil import numbers reported by the media

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Funny U.S oil import numbers reported by the media

Unread postby Poordogabone » Mon 12 Jan 2015, 02:14:02

I am confused by some data floating in the media with astounding claims.
My stupid logic tells me that if the US consumes ∼19Mb/d and produces ∼9Mb/d, that would translate to a net import of ∼10Mb/d, over 50% of US consumption but I stumble on articles like this and have to scratch my head. Anyone can enlighten me. Thx

“Rising monthly crude oil production, which will approach 10 million barrels a day in late 2015, will help cut U.S. fuel imports to just 21 percent of domestic demand, the lowest since 1968,” Sieminski said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-10/45-year-high-u-s-oil-output-may-cut-pump-price-imports.html
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Re: Funny U.S oil import numbers reported by the media

Unread postby toolpush » Mon 12 Jan 2015, 03:40:39

Poordogabone wrote:I am confused by some data floating in the media with astounding claims.
My stupid logic tells me that if the US consumes ∼19Mb/d and produces ∼9Mb/d, that would translate to a net import of ∼10Mb/d, over 50% of US consumption but I stumble on articles like this and have to scratch my head. Anyone can enlighten me. Thx

“Rising monthly crude oil production, which will approach 10 million barrels a day in late 2015, will help cut U.S. fuel imports to just 21 percent of domestic demand, the lowest since 1968,” Sieminski said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-10/45-year-high-u-s-oil-output-may-cut-pump-price-imports.html


Strangely enough, inputs don't equal outputs. Oil going into a refinery and what comes out. It is called refinery gain, basically, long carbon chains get broken up, H2 is added to these shorter chains and the volume increases.

This shows up on the EiA weekly petroleum highlights
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/wee ... lights.pdf

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 16.4 million barrels per
day during the week ending January 2, 2015, 43,000 barrels per day
more than the previous week’s average.


U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 6.9 million barrels per day last
week, down by 205,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over
the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.3 million barrels
per day, 4.6% below the same four-week period last year


U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 6.9 million barrels per day last
week, down by 205,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over
the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.3 million barrels
per day, 4.6% below the same four-week period last year


Net Imports (Thousand Barrels per Day)
Four Weeks Ending
........................... 1/2/15....12/26/14....1/3/14
Crude Oil................. 6,944...... 7,150 ......7,623
Petroleum Products.... -1,001......-1,288 .....-1,943
Total....................... 5,943.......5,863.......5,680


You should be able to do the math from there, but the refinery gain, some how get counted as US production, whether it is made from imported or locally produced oil.
Note, the crude oil number is an import, and the petroleum products are exports.
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Re: Funny U.S oil import numbers reported by the media

Unread postby Paulo1 » Mon 12 Jan 2015, 11:29:52

That's a bit of shenanigans, isn't it? I am trying to think of any industry that does something similar, but can't...at least not in volume, only in value-added.
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Re: Funny U.S oil import numbers reported by the media

Unread postby westexas » Mon 12 Jan 2015, 11:34:35

Based on the most recent four week running average data, the US was reliant on net crude oil imports for 42% of the crude oil processed in US refineries (net crude oil imports of 6.9 mbpd and crude oil inputs of 16.4 mbpd).

Again based on the most recent four week running average data, on a total liquids basis US net imports were 5.9 mbpd, which was 29% of total product supplied (20.2 mbpd). The total liquids calculation takes into account gross imports and exports, biofuels production and refinery gains.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_4.htm
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Re: Funny U.S oil import numbers reported by the media

Unread postby Pops » Mon 12 Jan 2015, 11:45:45

US refiners don't sell all their product to the US consumer, they export a lot, so if you credit all imports to all exports first it is kinda disingenuous but probably factually true.
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Re: Funny U.S oil import numbers reported by the media

Unread postby Poordogabone » Mon 12 Jan 2015, 13:56:04

toolpush wrote: Strangely enough, inputs don't equal outputs. Oil going into a refinery and what comes out. It is called refinery gain, basically, long carbon chains get broken up, H2 is added to these shorter chains and the volume increases.

Thanks for all this info.
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Re: Funny U.S oil import numbers reported by the media

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Mon 12 Jan 2015, 14:35:11

toolpush wrote:Strangely enough, inputs don't equal outputs. Oil going into a refinery and what comes out. It is called refinery gain, basically, long carbon chains get broken up, H2 is added to these shorter chains and the volume increases.
The H2 must come from NG.

I wonder if the NG used for this is also counted in the NG production figures?
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