[DesuMaiden]

I believe doomerism is a much more valid position to take than Cornucopism. First of all, the evidence for the collapse of industrial civilization is overwhelming. Denying the collapse of industrial civilization, after all of the evidence is presented to you, is akin to denying the world is round. I don't want to go into the specifics of why industrial civilization is going to collapse, but the evidence for the collapse is just overwhelming.

When you look at alternative energies, they simply cannot fully substitute fossil fuels, unless you are unrealistically optimistic. Doomers like Michael Ruppert OBVIOUSLY considered the alternatives to fossil fuels, such as wind, solar, geothermal, tidal, hydro, nuclear and etc with much optimism at first. They were obviously optimistic at first when evaluating the peak oil situation, but they eventually realized, through vigorous analysis, that the alternatives to oil cannot fully replace oil. That's why they believe the end of oil means the end of industrial civilization; there is simply nothing to replace the edifice left by oil.

Someone on Youtube once mentioned that Richard Heinberg was being pessimistic about our energy crisis, but then someone else replied by saying "are you joking? Richard Heinberg is one of the most optimistic peak oilers. If you want negative, look at Collapse by Michael Ruppert". He is right. Richard Heinberg is one of the most optimistic peak oilers, and his optimism is in many ways unfounded because he thinks the transition to a post-fossil fuel world will be more peaceful than it will probably be. Michael Ruppert is obviously one of the more negative peak oilers, and he is a textbook example of a doomer. However, even Michael Ruppert said he has some faith in humanity, and he believes we can survive the collapse of industrial civilization if we do the right things. Of course, according to Michael Ruppert, most people will die as a result of the collapse of industrial civilization because they are ill-prepared to survive the collapse.

Overall, I think Michael Ruppert is the most realistic peak oiler. He may be negative at times, but his negative outlook is supported by overwhelming empirical evidence. Michael Ruppert is not 100% right all of the time (for example, he said that ethanol takes more energy to make than you get from burning it, when in fact, you get a small net energy gain from burning ethanol compared to producing it), but he is overall correct. The collapse of industrial civilization is eminent and inevitable.

Basically, the bottom line is the cornucopians have no good evidence to support their claims of infinite human progress. Nothing progresses forever. There is no way technology can progress forever. What the cornucopians forget is that technology is dependent on natural resources. You cannot have any technology without any natural resources to build the technology with. For example, as amazing as computer technology is, the number of computers we can manufacture is limited by the amount of rare earth metals we have because computers are made of rare earth metals (REMs). But rare earth metals are finite and nonrenewable, and we are already running out of them. So it is entirely possible that in the future we cannot make anymore computers and other electronic devices because of running out of REMs. Cornucopians obviously haven't studied history, because if you look at history, there have been other societies that have collapsed because of resource shortages (i.e. the islanders on Easter Island running out of trees, and therefore couldn't make anymore canoes to catch fish and porpoises with).

All economic collapses are not caused by problems with the money, but are actually caused by resource shortages. Money DOES NOT run the world because our economy is not founded upon money. Money is just a medium for the exchange of natural resources. What the economy is dependent on is natural resources and energy.

Cornuopians believe that mankind can overturn the laws of nature with technology and ingenuity. That's the most silly and fallacious belief possible because NO AMOUNT OF TECHNOLOGY AND INGENUITY can possibly overturn the laws of nature. The laws that govern this planet. Those laws are immutable and real. And science has never been able to do that. The greatest arrogance of mankind is his belief that he can use technology and ingenuity to overturn the laws of nature. That can't happen. For example, if you run out of rare earth metals, you can't make computers. There is nothing you can do about that.

And I find it laughable that some people propose that we could go onto the Moon and asteroids in space to mine for rare metals. Have you considered how much resources it will require to send people to those places and back? It is already overwhelmingly difficult to send a handful of people to the Moon, so what makes you think it is possible to send people to places that are even further from the Moon and in much larger numbers? Think of this. It required an unimaginable amount of resources to send a handful of people to the Moon. Imagine how difficult (more like impossible) it would be to send people to places further than the Moon in much larger quantities. Leaving the Earth to colonize other planets in this solar system or even other solar systems is just an unrealistic fantasy cornucopians have for solving our resource problems on Earth. Cornucopians need to realize that the Earth is the only planet we have, and if we mess up the Earth so badly that nobody can live on it, we are doomed as a species.

Anyways, without getting too side-tracked, doomerism is correct, and cornucopian beliefs are false. That's all I'm getting at. That's all I have to say. Good night.

[kublikhan]

All I can say is try and enjoy life DesuMaiden. Too much doom in your life will make you miserable. I don't want to see you blow your brains out like Rubbert did. Peak oil is real, but there is more to life than running around screaming the sky is falling.

I rarely comment on these boards anymore- but now is the time.

I will put it bluntly: living in doom-land 24/7 is not mentally wise. The constant hyped-up of horrors of doomers slowly erode away the pleasure that life affords. Mornings become a nightmare of collapse- so do afternoons, evenings, holidays. Being a doomer is risking mental illness.

We all will die individually- collapse or not- nothing will change that. But living with horror movies constantly self broadcast to the brain is slow suicide. You live, but there is little pleasure in life. You meet people, but see them all as cancer, or stupid fools, and can't really enjoy them. Hanging out with people who constantly predict, or wish for, a massive die-off is dangerous to the will to live, happiness, and mental health. Comments on this thread indicating Mr. Ruppert's death was part of a conspiracy show how much paranoia and mental damage can result from constant exposure to the ideas of Doomers. it is a world of mistrust, fear, and a loathing of the human race.

Many Doomers have already killed their happiness years ago.

And for what? Most of the fears, like the predicted oil collapse of 2010, didn't happen anyway. Killer asteroids never came, AIDS or Avian Flu did not runaway mutate into a world killer. Financial collapse did not lead to social breakdown- the problems were dealt with. Most doomer "truths" turned out to be bad predictions and wound up scaring the life out of many people for nothing.

This is not to say that there are not problems in the world or that things can't still go bad. But all life is risky- and that fact hasn't changed since the Roman days. Even if collapse did happen, it really doesn't change the fact that we will all die individually. Nothing really earth shattering has changed.

I feel sorry for this guy. I feel sorry that he fell into a social group that only amplified the dark side of the psyche. I feel bad for all those who fall into doomer camps and get their life sucked out of them. Life is actually fun and exciting. People are very fascinating and can be a source of great joy. There is good in people as well as bad. There is fun in life as well as danger. You were meant to live a happy life- to be responsible and mature but also to care for yourself as well.

Mr. Ruppert's outcome could be in the future of many who comment and read here regularly.

Don't hang around in dark places that are dangerous to your soul. Don't throw away your life on somebody's theory. I was once a doomer and have found that over most of it was not just wrong but a complete waste of life. I am much happier now and wish that for others.

You only get one life- don't throw it away. Recognize that "doomerism" is a powerful form of mental illness that convinces its followers that it holds all the truth. It is an inherently suicidal belief system- a less extreme example of a cult but dangerous nevertheless. There are many who have made the change and stepped back into a mentally healthy world.

RIP Michael Ruppert

[ralfy]

FWIW, most people worldwide, who earn only a few dollars a day, lack access to one or more basic needs, and face crises ranging from high prices to natural disasters to collateral damage from conflict, have been experiencing the equivalent of doom for some time.

[kublikhan]

I wonder how many of those people run around screaming the sky is falling and end up eating their own gun.

The report found that about seven in 10 adults worldwide experience enjoyment; they laugh and smile a lot, feel well-rested, and feel as though they’re being treated with respect. This shows that the majority of people in the world actually do feel pretty optimistic about things. “Despite the conflict and unrest that dominates much of the news, people around the world are experiencing a lot of positive emotions.”

For the third year, Paraguay tops the list as the most optimistic country, followed by Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Ecuador. The U.S. is in 24th place.

Don't Worry, Be Happy: The Most Optimistic Countries In The World

A year ago, a Gallup poll revealed that Nigerians were the most optimistic people on the planet. This year, we have topped the poll yet again: when considering economic prosperity, Nigerians have only the sunniest of dispositions.

Nigerians are still the most optimistic people in the world

"Europe leads in despair, followed by North America," it said. "The rest of the world, lead by Africa, remains mostly optimistic."

Among a list of 51 countries, Nigeria was found to be the most optimistic country, when considering economic prosperity, followed by Vietnam and Ghana.

France leads world as gloomiest over economy

[DesuMaiden]

All I can say is try and enjoy life DesuMaiden. Too much doom in your life will make you miserable. I don't want to see you blow your brains out like Rubbert did. Peak oil is real, but there is more to life than running around screaming the sky is falling.

I rarely comment on these boards anymore- but now is the time.

I will put it bluntly: living in doom-land 24/7 is not mentally wise. The constant hyped-up of horrors of doomers slowly erode away the pleasure that life affords. Mornings become a nightmare of collapse- so do afternoons, evenings, holidays. Being a doomer is risking mental illness.

We all will die individually- collapse or not- nothing will change that. But living with horror movies constantly self broadcast to the brain is slow suicide. You live, but there is little pleasure in life. You meet people, but see them all as cancer, or stupid fools, and can't really enjoy them. Hanging out with people who constantly predict, or wish for, a massive die-off is dangerous to the will to live, happiness, and mental health. Comments on this thread indicating Mr. Ruppert's death was part of a conspiracy show how much paranoia and mental damage can result from constant exposure to the ideas of Doomers. it is a world of mistrust, fear, and a loathing of the human race.

Many Doomers have already killed their happiness years ago.

And for what? Most of the fears, like the predicted oil collapse of 2010, didn't happen anyway. Killer asteroids never came, AIDS or Avian Flu did not runaway mutate into a world killer. Financial collapse did not lead to social breakdown- the problems were dealt with. Most doomer "truths" turned out to be bad predictions and wound up scaring the life out of many people for nothing.

This is not to say that there are not problems in the world or that things can't still go bad. But all life is risky- and that fact hasn't changed since the Roman days. Even if collapse did happen, it really doesn't change the fact that we will all die individually. Nothing really earth shattering has changed.

I feel sorry for this guy. I feel sorry that he fell into a social group that only amplified the dark side of the psyche. I feel bad for all those who fall into doomer camps and get their life sucked out of them. Life is actually fun and exciting. People are very fascinating and can be a source of great joy. There is good in people as well as bad. There is fun in life as well as danger. You were meant to live a happy life- to be responsible and mature but also to care for yourself as well.

Mr. Ruppert's outcome could be in the future of many who comment and read here regularly.

Don't hang around in dark places that are dangerous to your soul. Don't throw away your life on somebody's theory. I was once a doomer and have found that over most of it was not just wrong but a complete waste of life. I am much happier now and wish that for others.

You only get one life- don't throw it away. Recognize that "doomerism" is a powerful form of mental illness that convinces its followers that it holds all the truth. It is an inherently suicidal belief system- a less extreme example of a cult but dangerous nevertheless. There are many who have made the change and stepped back into a mentally healthy world.

RIP Michael Ruppert

I still do other things. I don't spend all day thinking of the collapse of industrial civilization although I spend a lot of time thinking about it. The collapse of industrial civilization and a possible die-off of the majority of humanity is real. But you still have to have a positive outlook at life.

But I generally have a pessimistic view point of life because I think the average person is stupid. The average person knows more about the personal habits of celebrities like Brad Pitt or Britney Spears than they do about peak oil, like Richard Heinberg once said. The average person is too focused on unimportant things. That's because the mainstream media makes people focus on unimportant things. The mainstream media is complete and utter trash.

But the problem is most people know too much about useless sh1t like celebrity paparazzi and not about important things like peak oil. For example, there isn't a single video about peak oil on Youtube with more than 1 million views. Yet certain videos about stupid celebrity bullsh1t has over 100 million views. It should be the exact opposite in an ideal world. Videos about important sh1t like peak oil should be getting hundreds of millions of views, and videos about stupid sh1t like celebrity paparazzi should be getting very few views. The whole world is so unenlightened and delusional that it isn't even funny. I have completely lost hope with our society at large.

The fact that the USA is overwhelming religious is more proof of how delusional the average person is. The fact that there are over 3 billion Muslims and Christians in the world proves how delusional the whole world is because Islam and Christianity are just mass delusions. The sheer popularity of celebrity paparazzi crap and organized religions just shows how delusional and out-of-touch with reality the average person is. As a result, I have completely lost all hope with humanity.

If there were more atheists and doomers, the world would actually be a better place, because more people would be focusing on important issues rather than unimportant nonsense. Also it is because more people would be in touch with reality rather than believing in delusional nonsense like religion and celebrity nonsense if there were more doomers and atheists.

[ralfy]

Repost:

"Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

[Sixstrings]

[dolanbaker]

I wonder how many of those people run around screaming the sky is falling and end up eating their own gun.

The report found that about seven in 10 adults worldwide experience enjoyment; they laugh and smile a lot, feel well-rested, and feel as though they’re being treated with respect. This shows that the majority of people in the world actually do feel pretty optimistic about things. “Despite the conflict and unrest that dominates much of the news, people around the world are experiencing a lot of positive emotions.”

For the third year, Paraguay tops the list as the most optimistic country, followed by Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Ecuador. The U.S. is in 24th place.

Don't Worry, Be Happy: The Most Optimistic Countries In The World

A year ago, a Gallup poll revealed that Nigerians were the most optimistic people on the planet. This year, we have topped the poll yet again: when considering economic prosperity, Nigerians have only the sunniest of dispositions.

Nigerians are still the most optimistic people in the world

"Europe leads in despair, followed by North America," it said. "The rest of the world, lead by Africa, remains mostly optimistic."

Among a list of 51 countries, Nigeria was found to be the most optimistic country, when considering economic prosperity, followed by Vietnam and Ghana.

France leads world as gloomiest over economy

It seems to me that we're in the process of "global equalisation" where the wealth of the average citizen (excluding the top 0.01% and the bottom 30%) is being equalised.

IOW the average Chinese skilled worker will at some point in the not too distant future be earning a similar wage to his US or EU counterpart, this will be achieved by the western workers becoming poorer and the Chinese worker becoming richer.

The figures in optimism above appear to bear that out.

[DesuMaiden]

Repost:

"Limits to Growth was right. New research shows we're nearing collapse"

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

See I was right the whole time?

[dolanbaker]

oops, just realised that I posted this in the wrong thread, it should be here.

Desu, it is important to remember that the world isn't Black & white as you are implying by saying doomer or cornie. There is in reality (at least) 50 shades of grey and the vast majority of people are "grey", peak oil means that the way most of the population lives will change as they have to work around a diminishing fuel supply. For many, this will mean that they'll have to move to a city from the suburbs, just like millions have already done so in developing countries (sometimes with disastrous results like the impending unfolding water crisis in Sao Paulo). A badly managed post peak oil landscape could be a very dangerous place to be, but most places should be able to transition with relatively little trouble apart from the feeling that many people will feel as they take a "drop in living standard".

[KaiserJeep]

-snip-
I still do other things. I don't spend all day thinking of the collapse of industrial civilization although I spend a lot of time thinking about it. The collapse of industrial civilization and a possible die-off of the majority of humanity is real. But you still have to have a positive outlook at life.

But I generally have a pessimistic view point of life because I think the average person is stupid. The average person knows more about the personal habits of celebrities like Brad Pitt or Britney Spears than they do about peak oil, like Richard Heinberg once said. The average person is too focused on unimportant things. That's because the mainstream media makes people focus on unimportant things. The mainstream media is complete and utter trash.

But the problem is most people know too much about useless sh1t like celebrity paparazzi and not about important things like peak oil. For example, there isn't a single video about peak oil on Youtube with more than 1 million views. Yet certain videos about stupid celebrity bullsh1t has over 100 million views. It should be the exact opposite in an ideal world. Videos about important sh1t like peak oil should be getting hundreds of millions of views, and videos about stupid sh1t like celebrity paparazzi should be getting very few views. The whole world is so unenlightened and delusional that it isn't even funny. I have completely lost hope with our society at large.

The fact that the USA is overwhelming religious is more proof of how delusional the average person is. The fact that there are over 3 billion Muslims and Christians in the world proves how delusional the whole world is because Islam and Christianity are just mass delusions. The sheer popularity of celebrity paparazzi crap and organized religions just shows how delusional and out-of-touch with reality the average person is. As a result, I have completely lost all hope with humanity.

If there were more atheists and doomers, the world would actually be a better place, because more people would be focusing on important issues rather than unimportant nonsense. Also it is because more people would be in touch with reality rather than believing in delusional nonsense like religion and celebrity nonsense if there were more doomers and atheists.

hu·bris
ˈ(h)yo͞obrəs/

noun

1. excessive pride or self-confidence.
synonyms: arrogance, conceit, haughtiness, hauteur, pride, self-importance, egotism, pomposity, superciliousness, superiority;

More

antonyms: humility

2. (in Greek tragedy) excessive pride toward or defiance of the gods, leading to nemesis.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I believe doomerism is a much more valid position to take than Cornucopism.

If you don't try to use the hyper-doomer mode of believing (and acting like) "Collapse is imminent!" each and EVERY year, then fine. (The track record for that mode of belief is objectively BAD).

Meanwhile, for the perhaps one to many decades you have left with a hopefully good life, I hope you get plenty of enjoyment out of it.

OTOH as a moderate, I just am amazed at over the longer run how human societies tend to live near the edge of disaster as far as population vs. resources -- and manage to stumble along without too much trouble or too much collective success either -- growing population roughly as fast as it can be fed. There are plenty of problems, crises, and certainly stupidity to observe in all this, but if and until "the big oops" causes "a major industrial collapse", the lesson of history is that (even if they don't like it), people are generally quite adaptable when push comes to shove.

As one example, as a moderate I am certain that $20 oil in a decade would NOT bring about "collapse" as so many doomers assert. Lots of changes, yes. Doing without lots of luxuries, yes. Lots of complaining and forecasts of doom, yes. But more cars like Priuses, less driving, a lot less flying, and more caution about optional spending are all far more likely than "collapse".

This book, which I read years ago, explains in far more detail why this might be so: http://www.amazon.com/20-Per-Gallon-Ine ... B005HKMWXQ

[ralfy]

I believe doomerism is a much more valid position to take than Cornucopism.

If you don't try to use the hyper-doomer mode of believing (and acting like) "Collapse is imminent!" each and EVERY year, then fine. (The track record for that mode of belief is objectively BAD).

Meanwhile, for the perhaps one to many decades you have left with a hopefully good life, I hope you get plenty of enjoyment out of it.

OTOH as a moderate, I just am amazed at over the longer run how human societies tend to live near the edge of disaster as far as population vs. resources -- and manage to stumble along without too much trouble or too much collective success either -- growing population roughly as fast as it can be fed. There are plenty of problems, crises, and certainly stupidity to observe in all this, but if and until "the big oops" causes "a major industrial collapse", the lesson of history is that (even if they don't like it), people are generally quite adaptable when push comes to shove.

As one example, as a moderate I am certain that $20 oil in a decade would NOT bring about "collapse" as so many doomers assert. Lots of changes, yes. Doing without lots of luxuries, yes. Lots of complaining and forecasts of doom, yes. But more cars like Priuses, less driving, a lot less flying, and more caution about optional spending are all far more likely than "collapse".

This book, which I read years ago, explains in far more detail why this might be so: http://www.amazon.com/20-Per-Gallon-Ine ... B005HKMWXQ

Cars, together with many manufactured goods, require fossil fuels for mining, manufacturing, and shipping.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Cars, together with many manufactured goods, require fossil fuels for mining, manufacturing, and shipping.

And?

So such things will cost more with $20 oil, so people will have to do with less things, especially luxuries. Like I said.

If you're trying to convince me that $20 oil equals doom (i.e. complete industrial collapse), sorry, but it's not working.

[Quinny]

I'm almost certainly the most doomerish person I know in real life. Most of my friends would probably describe me as the most optimistic. I am not at all optimistic, I just love living and enjoy the challenges of surviving with next to no income. People confuse this with optimism.

I had a serious accident in 1998 and very nearly died, and decided to have a positive approach to every day. I don't always succeed, but most days are good to great!

Things are definitely FUBAR though and limits to growth are starting to hit us. I have never been a conspiracy theorist, but I do believe that governments are aware of the difficult times we face and hide more than they disclose. I often think about the timescales involved and tend to think we simply face slipping into a less materially wealthy existence over decades rather than years. I do believe and fear though that war is the game changer.

[ralfy]

Cars, together with many manufactured goods, require fossil fuels for mining, manufacturing, and shipping.

And?

So such things will cost more with $20 oil, so people will have to do with less things, especially luxuries. Like I said.

If you're trying to convince me that $20 oil equals doom (i.e. complete industrial collapse), sorry, but it's not working.

Most human beings earn only a few dollars a day. How do you think they'll be able to afford various basic needs?

How do you think the population boomed to 7 billion today?

What happens if we face not only the effects of peak oil but that plus environmental damage plus global warming plus overpopulation? How about the effects of superbugs, arms proliferation, etc?

Finally, any details on what you think will show future trends going against forecasts discussed here?

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

[DesuMaiden]

I don't argue with people about peak oil and collapse. It is pretty much very evident that this civilization is about to collapse soon. And we can even predict when and how this collapse will happen. We don't know exactly how the collapse will happen, but we still have a pretty accurate picture of what this collapse will be like.

And no it will not be a painless and happy transition to a post-fossil fuel world. It will be a painful and frustrating transition with countless deaths. But it will happen. And the only thing you can do is become one of the handful of survivors. You can't expect to save everyone or even the majority of the human population because the majority of the people on Earth right now exist only because of oil. And if you take the oil away, the majority of people will disappear, and the population must go away. Peak oil (along with other factors like population overshoot, resource depletion of other resources, and climate change) will be the mortal blow to this civilization. This civilization will die, but humanity will live on. There will be survivors even though the majority of people will have to perish. Since the majority of people will deny the collapse, the majority of people will perish because you must first acknowledge this collapse is real and behave accordingly to survive. It is that simple.