[DesuMaiden]

I think it is for the most part. Yes, peak oil is important, but most people don't believe peak oil and its consequences are real. They go into denial about peak oil. Their typical excuses are as following:

"There is plenty of oil left, so what do we need to worry about?"
"Oil is abiotic, and we can never run out of it"
"We have plenty of substitutes for oil, so we have nothing to worry about oil depletion".
"Human ingenuity is endless, and we will find a substitute for oil"

Of course none of those statements are correct. We don't really have that much oil left. Yes, there is still about a trillion barrels of recoverable oil left in reserves around the world, but that isn't very much considering each day we consume 90 million barrels of oil. Also, there are currently no substitutes for oil, and it is very likely we may never discover any substitutes for oil.

People think I'm fear-mongering when I say the economy is going to collapse, food shortages are a decade or two away, and there will be a die-off of the human population all because of peak oil. But this isn't fear mongering. This is based on solid scientific evidence. All populations that go into overshoot experience a die off. And the primary reason there are over 7 billion humans on this planet is oil. Take the oil away, you take away the food, and by doing that, the population goes away. Since peak oil deniers have shown no evidence of any replacements for oil, my predictions will come true. The economic collapse, food shortages and reduction/crash in human population are on the way.

I believe it is a waste of time arguing with fools. I don't argue with fools. I don't think people, who deny peak oil, deserve to live. The only reason they exist on this planet is because of oil-based agriculture. Take the oil away, and they will cease to exist. If they don't want to believe me, then that's fine with them. Let them die when the oil and food shortages start to happen. I was warning them of the turmoil that lie ahead in order to help them survive in another decade or two. But they are idiots, who think business as usual can continue indefinitely. So they don't deserve to live. They are the idiots who need to be culled from this population. And since these idiots are the majority of the population, the majority of the population needs to be culled by the peak oil crisis.

Like Michael Ruppert said in the movie Collapse, there are three types of people you encounter when you tell them that a life-threatening crisis, like "the Titanic got hit by an ice berg and is about to sink", is about to happen:

a) People who are deer in the head light. They are too paralyzed in fear to do anything about the crisis.

b) People who are interested in learning about how to survive the crisis. These people want to learn how to create life boats in order to survive the Titanic sinking.

c) People who deny that the crisis is real, and they think the Titanic is unsinkable. These people say "the Titanic is unsinkable. So we are going back to the bar to have another drink, and you doomsayers can take a hike"

If you know how to build life-boats, which group are you going to help? I will help group b) obviously because they are the only group worth helping.

The majority of people I talk to are in group c). They think business as usual can continue indefinitely, and there is nothing to worry about when it comes to the upcoming peak oil crisis. These people will obviously not survive when the consequences of peak oil strike. They don't deserve to survive, and natural selection will eliminate these fools.

I think educating other people about peak oil is mostly a waste of time, because most people will just vehemently deny it unless oil and food shortages start to happen and there is no replacements for oil in sight. I think it is best to just prepare for peak oil yourself, and make sure your family and close friends survive. And let everyone else die because they are useless eaters who only exist on this planet because of oil. And they will cease to exist when oil is gone.

[Subjectivist]

Trying to help your neighbors understand today might pay huge dividends in the future when you all need to work together as a community.

[KaiserJeep]

Desu, I'm only going to say this once, and then I'm out of this thread. Some of the phrasing and subject matter in the post above is offensive, insensitive, and reflects a lack of cognition.

You should not say something in an online Forum that you would not say to that same person's face. There really is not anyone here who needs to be lectured by a 25-year-old newbie to PO.

This is at least the 10th time people have asked you to FIRST SEARCH and THEN POST a new thread. In fact there are multiple existing threads on this topic and others close to it. This is the second time I personally have asked you to Search 1st, Post 2nd.

If English is your second language, or you have some mental defect which prevents you from effectively using a search function, then I most humbly beg your pardon.

A subject line ending with a question mark is a request for information - but "lecture to inferiors" is more the tone of your post.

I read it all, and it irritated me, because once again you are not adhering to the conventions here. Would you please do so?

[americandream]

Trying to raise the consciousness of others is never easy.

[ROCKMAN]

Dreamer - Sorry...I missed that...what did you say? I was distracted along with many fellow citizens checking out the latest Kardashian hairdo. Oh never mind...I'm sure it wasn't important.

[Hawkcreek]

Yes, it is a waste of time.

Another bell curve says that 50 percent of the people in the world are below average IQ.
You probably won't get many people to agree with that either. They might worry a bit about which side of the curve they fit.
Don't worry about it. It will all shake out in the end.
Meanwhile, get the popcorn ready.

[Pops]

I used to think "education" was what this site was about. Turns out that folks like to spout about their opinion, find references to back it up so they can use the BIG type, posters who agree and ... that's about it. Our knee jerks in a certain direction and if someone tries to change the direction they get a black eye.

I'm no different, my knee jerks the direction it has been trained to do by my experiences, influences of my childhood, my folks attitudes and some little bit of whatever direction my innate aptitude might lead. So while I do amuse myself playing devil's advocate here from time to time I mainly just look for justification for my preconceived notions.

What you WILL NOT admit Desu is the title applies to you as well. Just on the Starving in a Week bit I've linked tons of stuff and made lots of unanswered arguments about why we aren't going to starve in a week, a decade or maybe ever due to lack of food but you appear not to have not moderated your preconceived fantasy in the least.

So yeah, it is definitely a waste of time.

[tom_s2]

Hi Desumaiden,

This peak oil collapse stuff is obviously totally wrong. This stuff is utterly crackpot. That's why no actual experts believe it.

There are hundreds of thousands of experts worldwide on topics such as transportation networks, electrical grids, infrastructure, and so on. None of them are here. In fact, they don't even bother to respond to this stuff, which is even worse than a refutation because it indicates that they don't even take it seriously.

I believe it is a waste of time arguing with fools. I don't argue with fools. I don't think people, who deny peak oil, deserve to live.

Desumaiden, I don't want to get into a nasty argument with you. However, you're the one who's being a fool here. You're the one who got suckered in to a crackpot doomsday movement.

You're failing to carry out even basic logical reasoning and critical thinking tasks. I'm not saying you're dumb; I'm sure you're a bright guy; however you need to crank up the critical thinking a lot.

You need to ask WHY the predictions keep failing, year after year, decade after decade. These are questions which other people would ask, and which you're not asking.

This is based on solid scientific evidence.

If you really believe that, then you have no idea what science is. Where are the journals? Peer review by actual experts? Experiments? Replication? Correct predictions? Falsifiable theories?

The last one (falsifiable theories) is important, because it indicates that this doomsday stuff does not meet even the most basic criteria of a valid scientific theory. If group members respond to constant severe failures of prediction by saying that the theories are right anyway, then those theories do not even meet the most basic criteria of science.

Bear in mind that ALL crackpot groups throw around terms like "thermodynamics" and so on. They ALL try to sound scientific. That is not what science is!

They go into denial about peak oil.

Desumaiden, you're the one joining a crackpot doomsday group, years or decades after all the predictions have already failed.

There have already been more than 30 major failed doomsday predictions within the peak oil collapse/energy doom community. That track record is disastrously worse than any other crackpot doomsday group I'm aware of. No other group, no matter how absurd, can compete with the peak oil collapse movement in terms of sheer number of failed predictions.

Apparently, you don't see any problem with that.

The reason the collapse predictions keep failing is because the doctrines underlying those predictions are wrong.

I fear that you're about to throw your life away on a crackpot doomsday group. I urge you to think about why nobody who understands these topics believes these things. DO NOT respond to this by using pop psychoanalysis. Think about why all the predictions keep failing, and what it means.

Best wishes,
-Tom S

[dinopello]

It's only a waste of time if you have something better you could be doing. And, if you do, then do that other thing, and stop wasting your time.

[dolanbaker]

Waste of time educating others... Yes,
Waste of time educating yourself... NO, this is critical, as there are so many different viewpoints and you need to form your own opinion and use the information gained to plan how you are going to mitigate the risks that you perceive in the future. These risks are going to differ depending on your circumstances and your location.

Waste of time informing others who want to listen, no, let them hear what you have to say, but don't lecture them!

Don't bother arguing with others who disagree as it may be you that's wrong.

Remember that many "peak oilers" have got it very wrong in recent years, the "fast crashers" for instance.
The consensus appears to be that many of us are expecting a long slow wind down in the use of fossil fuel as it is depleted and as the costs involved in its extraction outweigh its usefulness.

[DesuMaiden]

Trying to help your neighbors understand today might pay huge dividends in the future when you all need to work together as a community.

That's what I hope to do, but most people remain in denial of peak oil because they think everything is just going to be fine. They think business as usual can continue indefinitely. They forgot about the geological limits of our planet. There is only so much oil in the ground, and we are using it at an incredible rate. And the worst part is that there is currently no replacements for petroleum, and it is possible that we might not develop any replacements in the future. So yes, peak oil does mean that industrial civilization will likely cease to exist in another two decades. And it is impossible to save everyone because peak oil will result in a die off of a significant portion of the human race. Some people just can't be saved. And the people who ignore the warnings of peak oil cannot be saved.

If someone wants to survive the peak oil crisis, they need to:

1) First acknowledge that peak oil is real, and that it will cause catastrophic consequences.
2) Prepare for the peak oil crisis by locally producing all of their food. They need to learn how to live without fossil fuels.

If you can't even acknowledge the catastrophic consequences of peak oil, there is no way you will take the necessary steps to prepare for it. Therefore, you will not survive.

I am trying to educate more people on the issue, so that they can hopefully survive. There has to be a community of survivors, because there is no way you can survive on your own. Of course, it is impossible to save everyone, as there is no way we can support our current population without the use of petrochemicals. So yes, a significant portion, or even the vast majority, of humanity will have to die. But there must be communities of survivors building life boats to survive the upcoming catastrophe.

[frankthetank]

YES. IT is. Especially older people. I've hinted at things before to older siblings and i'm shot down almost immediately..i don't ever push it because they already think i'm nuts. I have talked to my nephew (mid 20s) and i think he gets it (he sort of touched on the subject so i put in my .02 ... Try to feel people out (not physically...that will get you in trouble)...hint at how things can't last much longer the way they are going... bring up that population is out of control (more and more people chasing the same amt of resources)... The Chinese are become more wealthy/demanding more resources...something has to give...etc etc... in the end, i doubt it helps anything. The whole system needs to collapse in order for people to understand.

[h2]

tom_s2, please, try to be serious. Your comments are clueless, filled with strawmen, etc, to the degree that it's hard to take anything you say seriously if this is how you think. The serious peak guys, at tod, before, and on pob now, were generally oil industry insiders, who in fact knew what they were talking about, or serious academic researchers. Around those did cluster doomer types who are basically clueless, but inside the actual research the data was pretty consistent, the predictions, if you actually had read any of the serious guys, who were in fact highly visible and highly, and clearly far more than you, qualified to talk about future assumptions, anyway, these pointed to sometime around 2012 as the middle case, 2020 or so as later case, in other words, pretty much exactly what is happening. They also got the economic consequences spot on as well, you know the ones, it's what is happening all over the world now, but those facts seem to have zipped right over your obfuscated head.

Moral of the story: don't follow idiots who don't have a clue, whether they are you, or doomers, but do follow serious people who do the boring number crunching, and who have been pretty close to right all along. Of course, always avoid people, like you, who paint false pictures based on strawmen, which unfortunately the surrounding doomer crowd has always made it far too easy to do for critics.

So the predictions, we are right on schedule, nobody was wrong who was serious, and those people were almost all serious insiders.

As to desu and his problems, it's too bad the forum mods don't do some modding. Hint: on a forum about peak oil production, move all non topically related threads to other forums, it's not hard to do it, and if you start modding, the problem will diminish. Right now desu is on track to ruining these forums, I'm about to give up on reading them since the signal to noise ratio is getting far too high, I'm interested in oil production information, not the childish statements of someone who doesn't have a clue what they are talking about yet believes they do, the worst of all offenders, in my opinion, but it's gotten easy to do that on the interweb so that is what it is.

[careinke]

As to desu and his problems, it's too bad the forum mods don't do some modding. Hint: on a forum about peak oil production, move all non topically related threads to other forums, it's not hard to do it, and if you start modding, the problem will diminish. Right now desu is on track to ruining these forums, I'm about to give up on reading them since the signal to noise ratio is getting far too high, I'm interested in oil production information, not the childish statements of someone who doesn't have a clue what they are talking about yet believes they do, the worst of all offenders, in my opinion, but it's gotten easy to do that on the interweb so that is what it is.

I like that suggestion. Even better, pretty much every thread Desu has put up, has an already existing thread covering the same topic. Perhaps an increase in moving a new posted thread into an existing related thread, will help teach desu how to post correctly.

[tom_s2]

h2,

(the peak oil predictions) pointed to sometime around 2012 as the middle case, 2020 or so as later case, in other words, pretty much exactly what is happening.... (peak oilers) have been pretty close to right all along... So the predictions, we are right on schedule, nobody was wrong who was serious

That is a drastic mischaracterization of the prior peak oil predictions.

One of the fascinating things about the movement is how much they distort their own history and prior predictions. That's astonishing, because the prior predictions are still available on the web and can be looked up by anyone.

For example, please look at ASPO newsletter #100 in April 2009. This was the LAST newsletter from that organization, so it represents their mature view. That newsletter has a graph showing all hydrocarbon production (including unconventional oil, gas and unconventional gas, and NGL) declining absolutely starting in 2008. The same prediction is found in newsletters #99, #98, #97, and some others but I stopped looking at that point. I also picked a few other ASPO newsletters at random. Newsletters #91, #63, #60, and #45 show all hydrocarbons (including gas, unconventional gas, and NGL) entering terminal decline some time between 2006 and 2010.

As for the other serious authors. Deffeyes predicted absolute declines in oil production starting on Thanksgiving day in 2005, if I recall. Kjell Aleklett's book "Peeking and Peak Oil" has two published predictions when absolute declines would begin--one in 2007, and one in 2010. Campbell's book "The Coming Global Oil Crisis" has similar predictions of absolute declines starting in the 2000s. The original article which started it all, in Scientific American in 1999 ("The end of cheap oil") shows ALL oil, including unconventional, entering a terminal decline around 2004-2005.

Those predictions were all unequivocally wrong. The predictions of gas were worse.

Please note that I am ignoring the doomsday stuff here. I am ignoring all the crackpot nonsense. I'm even graciously ignoring Colin Campbell when he strays outside his area of expertise and starts talking nonsense about debt and the economy. I am paying attention here only to the serious oil industry insiders who were speaking within their field of expertise. But even that was wrong.

Maybe it was an understandable error. Nobody was exactly right when predicting future oil production. However, the serious peak oilers were not right, and things are not playing out as they had predicted.

They also got the economic consequences spot on as well, you know the ones, it's what is happening all over the world now...

That's exactly what I'm talking about. That's just totally wrong. Not one person in the peak oil movement was anywhere near correct when it came to economic consequences. Colin Campbell sold all his investments and bought bonds in some Nordic country because he feared that was the only safe investment in the world (he would have done far better with risky stocks). Deffeyes said we would be "back in the stone age" soon. Laherrere and Aleklett are the most serious peak oilers ever, and they offered no predictions about the economy. Laherrere said that economists were right about the economy and commented no further.

Of course, the less serious peak oilers predicted total collapse of civilization.

Your comments are filled with strawmen, etc,

Really? The doomsday stuff is just a strawman that I made up? Do you even read these forums? For example, the person who originated this thread, and who suggested imminent massive die-off from peak oil. Did you read that? Did you read the comment posted ten minutes before yours ("the whole system needs to collapse")? Are those strawmen of mine?

please, try to be serious. Your comments are clueless

h2, I'm sorry, but you're just utterly clueless. You just failed to read and understand the material here.

If this is what you mean by "being serious" then you just don't know what serious is.

-Tom S

[ralfy]

Here's something to consider: most people earn only a few dollars a day and barely have access to one basic need or another. In which case, one can argue that "collapse" took place a look time ago or that we have yet to reach significant economic development for the world. Or that it's been "collapse" from the start (high infant mortality rates and low life expectancy rates), followed by a significant boom from 1945 to 2005 (a decrease for the former and an increase for the latter) but at very high costs: increasing reliance on industrialization even for basic needs coupled with environmental damage, high oil production costs, etc.

Given that, those who need to be education about peak oil should ask themselves whether or not that boom can be maintained. Also, it will involve more than just oil.

[Pops]

As to desu and his problems, it's too bad the forum mods don't do some modding. Hint: on a forum about peak oil production, move all non topically related threads to other forums, it's not hard to do it, and if you start modding, the problem will diminish. Right now desu is on track to ruining these forums, I'm about to give up on reading them since the signal to noise ratio is getting far too high, I'm interested in oil production information, not the childish statements of someone who doesn't have a clue what they are talking about yet believes they do, the worst of all offenders, in my opinion, but it's gotten easy to do that on the interweb so that is what it is.

I like that suggestion. Even better, pretty much every thread Desu has put up, has an already existing thread covering the same topic. Perhaps an increase in moving a new posted thread into an existing related thread, will help teach desu how to post correctly.

There are over a million and a quarter posts here, I can't think of a topic that has not been hashed and rehashed on this site.

That being the case perhaps we should just lock the site down, since we few have already seen and said it all and we don't want to wade through what new folks have to say?

You all complained because Desu was starting too many threads so we agreed he would only start one a day. Now you are complaining because he starts threads about peak oil?

Here is the recent posts list:
Ukraine
Kids
ISIS
weather
netflix
Ebola
Ah Ha! Rig count!
politics
el nino
ocean warming

10 threads right now and only one is peak oil related. The eleventh is this one about educating folks about PO and you all are saying shut him down.

LOL, it is really simple, if you want to control the content start your own blog, if you want to improve the content here, then post up some original thought rather than just snipe.

[radon1]

Of course not. It is definitely not a waste of time.

[GHung]

@Tom S - I understand your frustration with those who insist peak oil will bring about collapse, especially when claimed time-frames are involved. You know that these things haven't happened yet as described so it's easy to dismiss the whole concept. What you could be ignoring is that it's happening now; the long, slow train wreck some have described. Peak oil/peak other things, as Greer suggests, is playing out in a fractile process that is difficult to see in real time, especially when one is immersed in real-time BAU. I suggest both sides of this issue are guilty of confirmation bias.

That our global civilization, and its environment, is undergoing a paradigm shift and systemic decline is obvious. I won't even bother to post proof of that, since those who don't see it, won't, at least until they see it in the rear-view mirror.

Peak oil => peak per capita energy is only a part of our overall predicament of too many claims on too few resources, and substituting faux resources via financialization will only delay and reinforce the trend. Your assertion that it hasn't happened, isn't happening, won't happen, is pure magical thinking, and assumes an infinite planet, with infinite resources, a planets ability to absorb infinite abuse, and humanity's infinite ability to adapt to the consequences of its behaviour. I for one, don't believe we're the exception to nature's realities. You use up your critical resources, you expand your population, you foul your nest, nature will permit you to self-select for die-off or extinction. No exceptions. Those with narrow views of complex processes, with no sense of deep time, and who focus on others' failed predictions to support their own beliefs, simply don't matter at all.

[dinopello]

That's what I hope to do, but most people remain in denial of peak oil because they think everything is just going to be fine.

Not everyone who seems to be in denial of big problems like peak oil or climate change thinks everything is going to be fine. Some people either believe there is nothing they or anyone can do about it or more specifically, they honestly know that they are not going to do anything about it so why dwell on it ? In the reduction, it doesn't matter what you think, it only matters what you do.