[onlooker]

Despite 0 percent interest rates and low gasoline prices the US economy is virtually dead. Retail sector in particular for 2014 is in abysmal condition. From what I have been reading about US economy over time this was all predictable but to now be living through it well we shall see just how bad it gets. Here in the link to the shocking state of the US economy . What does everyone think about this?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-1 ... onomy-dead

[Paulo1]

Hi Onlooker,

I don't know where you live but when I visited my sister (north of Seattle) last month she was absolutely convinced the US economy has recovered and was doing well. Plus, she is of the opinion the bcar manufacturing industry is going gangbusters and simply did not believe my explanation of sub-prime auto loans.

I have given up.

regards

[onlooker]

Hi Paulo, well I am in NY and all of us on the ground and not in ivory towers for the most part know that the economy is in tatters. Yes some are not so apprised as others but I cannot fathom how anyone could believe the economy is doing well. Maybe your sister lives in a little oasis of vitality in a desert of stagnation. Oh well sign of the times we live in, reality takes a while to set in with some. stay well. O

[dinopello]

Hi Paulo, well I am in NY and all of us on the ground and not in ivory towers for the most part know that the economy is in tatters. Yes some are not so apprised as others but I cannot fathom how anyone could believe the economy is doing well. Maybe your sister lives in a little oasis of vitality in a desert of stagnation. Oh well sign of the times we live in, reality takes a while to set in with some. stay well. O

onlooker, everything people experience is experienced at the local level. Most of what happens in the rest of your state, the US, much less the rest of the world has little bearing on your life in your neighborhood (in a relative sense). Even global climate change manifests at the local level - some might actually be better off (nicer climate) while others suffer horribly. I'm sorry you are suffering in an area that is in such terrible shape.

My local area in the last 5 years has been in the worst shape economically that it has been in probably 25 years but still not too bad.

[onlooker]

Yes Dino that is certainly true but reminds me a little of Titanic where maybe if you are on the upper decks all is well but below not so much. I for one like to see beyond my immediate horizon. Like knowing what is coming my way.

[onlooker]

You two doomers must be spending a lot of time outside your Iphone. We told you not to look around. Everything is great! Apple is the largest company in the entire world. Iphone 7 is coming! All is good!

what do the British say

Keep calm and carry on

[americandream]

zerohedge is a very confused fellow. On the one hand he purports to be a free marketeer, and on the other he clearly demonstrates that he hasnt a clue what that looks like. I would ignore this nonsense. The US is very much in the drivers seat of the global system (the ruling elite ie)

[copious.abundance]

Despite 0 percent interest rates and low gasoline prices the US economy is virtually dead. Retail sector in particular for 2014 is in abysmal condition. From what I have been reading about US economy over time this was all predictable but to now be living through it well we shall see just how bad it gets. Here in the link to the shocking state of the US economy . What does everyone think about this?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-1 ... onomy-dead

When one gets their economic information from Zerohedge, I'm not surprised they would think the US economy is dead.

BTW, that article is written by Jeff Neilson. Jeff Neilson is one of those gold bug types who has been perpetually telling everyone the US economy has been hitting a brick wall for at least the past five years, during which time he has been 100% wrong. And he's not even an American, he's a Canadian.

[Pops]

Velocity is a hard thing. Right off the bat I'd say the stimulative effect of deregulating commercial banks (by our friends the Clintons) and all those inflated real estate loans on the system was just about unprecedented. And why not? The banks found a way to make risk-free loans! Just slice n dice 'em and pass them along to the next greater fool.

Then of course we had to bail out the Too-Big-To-Fail banks by making them bigger. That was the big thing; .gov buying up all those Cuisinarted mortgages, etc with "stimulus" money. But here is the deal and why that chart looks bad but isn't really - the fed raised the reserve limits at the same time. All banks got bailout money (even if they didn't want it) but then the fed made them deposit it right back in the Feds vault. The idea being to loosen the credit markets that had frozen and thereby stimulate growth.

The upshot was, a bigger money supply but no more money in circulation because the banks didn't really get any looser. Since velocity is GDP/M2, if M2 increases but never enters the economy, it can't increase GDP - so the "velocity" measurement falls.

Of course I am no expert and stand to be corrected but that is the simplistic explanation and it makes sense to me.

[Loki]

Despite 0 percent interest rates and low gasoline prices the US economy is virtually dead. Retail sector in particular for 2014 is in abysmal condition. From what I have been reading about US economy over time this was all predictable but to now be living through it well we shall see just how bad it gets. Here in the link to the shocking state of the US economy . What does everyone think about this?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-1 ... onomy-dead

When one gets their economic information from Zerohedge, I'm not surprised they would think the US economy is dead.

I hate to agree with Oily, but Zerohedge is not a credible source of information about the economy (or likely anything else).

Here's one example from the article of "misreading" (AKA lying about) statistics:

But there is even further, equally overwhelming proof that this gas-guzzling, consumer economy is dead, and it comes from the gasoline consumption numbers, themselves. “Official” U.S. gasoline consumption hasplummeted by nearly 75% from its absolute peak in July of 1998. More pertinently; the gasoline consumption numbers have plummeted by roughly 66% since the start of the U.S.’s (imaginary)“recovery”.

This supposed 75% drop appears to come from this dataset, which is gasoline retailed directly by refiners. Refiners have been getting out of retail sales for years. This dataset is not a measure of gasoline consumed in the US.

This is a better dataset, 4-Week Avg U.S. Product Supplied of Petroleum Products. Compared to the supposed peak in July 1998, we're actually consuming 3.5% more.

Just one example of the author's misrepresentation of the data. Pops also outlines the problem with the velocity of money figures. His explanation is also my understanding of this dataset.

Not to say the US economy is fine and dandy. Median household income is stagnant, as are wages (not unrelated phenomena). Unemployment (U-3) is much better than it was compared to the depth of the Great Recession, but labor force participation and employment population ratio are still quite low. And contrary to Oily's pronouncements, retirement does not explain this.

Employment population ratio, ages 25-54:

On an upward trend, but hardly recovered.

To call the US economy "dead" is vastly overstating the case. Secular stagnation, on the other hand.....

[onlooker]

thanks for the heads up about zerohedge. I guess I was already a bit biased as from multiple sources I was reading about the truly poor state of the US economy. So maybe in the middle between what government sources say and a site like zero is the most accurate assessment. It just seems that with the favorable factors of lots of money printed and the other factors I cited, the US economy would have really been kickstarted rather then continue in it's lethargic doldrums state.

[Pops]

Here is a depressing blog.
http://www.ftense.com/

[Fishman]

Wel one could look at the Baltic Dry index and at least state the world is in bad shape. It seems more to me the US economy is in a deep slumber, with no chance of awakening until after the great job killer is out of office.

[joyfulbozo]

A considerable decline in the development of the labor force, productive capital stock and labor efficiency reflects the magnitude and the gravity of the problems that were created, and the fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve still continues to struggle with errors of the past.

[Sophie76]

Hi onlooker! I think we are responsible for this bad economy of our country. I just finished reading a superb article written by Dr. Aloke Ghosh. He has listed all the genuine reasons of bad US economic condition.

[onlooker]

Hello sophie and welcome to the fray here. Just curious I found the site but cannot find where Aloke speaks about reasons for the poor American economy. So perhaps you can link that specific article or explain how the populace in general is responsible. I would have thought this is a product of policies from the powers that be. Excessive debt, stagnant job creation and wages and such. So how can the general population be blamed? Curious minds wish to know.

[ennui2]

I think it really depends on what industry you're in.

I am experiencing what I can only describe as "dot com bubble 3.0" although dot com would be a misnomer since it's being driven by mobile apps, but other than that, it's the same basic phenomenon, and it's made it so that the demand for programmers has well exceeded supply and no, they don't seem to just want to outsource to India (thankfully). I don't consider myself the cream of the crop coder and the fact that recruiters are banging on my door now rather than 5 years ago at the height of the recession, plus the Fed getting ready to raise interest rates, is proof enough that the recession is over. Doesn't mean we won't crash again, but at some point you have to close the book on one story before writing the next chapter, and I think this one is about done.

Ironic as it may seem, perhaps the best doomer prep for me has been to just stay shackled to the IT industry where I got started in the late 90s, because it has consistently paid the bills and I don't see a time in the near future where I'd be making a better living doing anything more agrarian.

[onlooker]

Yes ennui, your line of work certainly is in demand, I would say most careers involving very well educated persons are in demand as their is a shortage I think in this country of very well educated persons in relation to demand for them. However, I would say your field again at least in this country is an anomaly, high tech ironically is taking away more jobs then creating. Bank tellers, cashiers, office workers, telephone operators-cust svce, etc. are examples of jobs which is becoming more and more automated. Of course we here on this site know the real crunch will happen when peak oil truly sets in.