Fishman wrote:Hey, now that's funny. Baltic Dry Index at absolute bottom numbers. Enough said
Two thousand years ago, the haruspices of ancient Rome peered at animal entrails to divine the future. Today’s seers have refined the technique, searching for clues to the fate of the global economy -- and the modern omens aren’t promising.
A gauge of growth rates for raw materials including cattle hides, tallow, plywood and burlap has been signaling economic contraction since September. The last time the growth rate of the JoC-ECRI Industrial Materials Price Index was falling to these levels, the world was mired in recession. At the same time, the price-tracking Bloomberg Commodity Index is near a 12-year low, with bear markets for more than half of the 22 items it measures.
GoghGoner wrote:At the same time, the price-tracking Bloomberg Commodity Index is near a 12-year low, with bear markets for more than half of the 22 items it measures.
The BDI is not a very good indicator when viewed in isolation.
GoghGoner wrote:2014 was an improvement for the US economy, however, 2015 looks gloomy to me as global weakness spreads.
Cattle Hides Replace Entrails as Dark Omens of EconomyTwo thousand years ago, the haruspices of ancient Rome peered at animal entrails to divine the future. Today’s seers have refined the technique, searching for clues to the fate of the global economy -- and the modern omens aren’t promising.
A gauge of growth rates for raw materials including cattle hides, tallow, plywood and burlap has been signaling economic contraction since September. The last time the growth rate of the JoC-ECRI Industrial Materials Price Index was falling to these levels, the world was mired in recession. At the same time, the price-tracking Bloomberg Commodity Index is near a 12-year low, with bear markets for more than half of the 22 items it measures.
"There is little danger that this temporary bout of falling energy prices will develop into a more insidious debt-deflation spiral," he added.
The fall in headline inflation means that the US has now joined the eurozone in deflationary territory. The currency bloc entered deflation in December, while recent figures have shown that prices fell even more swiftly in January.
Economists believe that 2015 may be the first year since before WWII that inflation will fall below 2pc across the advanced countries which make up the G7.
Analysts stressed that the “core” measure of inflation - which attempts to strip out the more volatile components of the measure - was stteronger than expected.
Core inflation rose by 0.2pc in the year to January, higher than the 0.1pc economists had pencilled in.
Deflation:
A general decline in prices, often caused by a reduction in the supply of money or credit. Deflation can be caused also by a decrease in government, personal or investment spending. The opposite of inflation, deflation has the side effect of increased unemployment since there is a lower level of demand in the economy, which can lead to an economic depression. Central banks attempt to stop severe deflation, along with severe inflation, in an attempt to keep the excessive drop in prices to a minimum.
The decline in prices of assets, is often known as Asset Deflation.
The Bloomberg Commodity index, which tracks the prices of 22 different commodity prices such as gold, natural gas and oil, fell 0.3pc to 99.84 in early trading, the lowest point since August 2002.
Beginning in March, the E.C.B. is aiming to make €60 billion a month in purchases of government bonds and other debt to try to stimulate growth.
Negative-yield bonds are the fastest-growing asset class in Europe, with about 30 percent of European sovereign bonds trading at a negative yield, Mr. Gallo said. Some corporate bonds have also fallen to a yield below zero in the secondary market, he said.
GoghGoner wrote:China's money supply (M2) was at a record low last month.
Money Supply M2 in China increased to 124270 CNY Billion in January of 2015 from 122840 CNY Billion in December of 2014. Money Supply M2 in China averaged 41588.37 CNY Billion from 1996 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 124270 CNY Billion in January of 2015 and a record low of 5840.10 CNY Billion in January of 1996. Money Supply M2 in China is reported by the People's Bank of China.
Germany Sells Five-Year Debt at Negative Yield
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