[onlooker]

very interesting article detailing many facets of the issues facing the oil industry. A good primer for those wishing to learn the basic facts and find out the current situation. Here is link:https://aleklett.wordpress.com/2015/02/15/the-crash-in-the-price-of-oil-may-change-the-oil-market-a-look-at-the-ieas-oil-medium-term-market-report-2015/

[Plantagenet]

Thanks for linking to the interesting article by Prof. Aleklett.

I found three things interesting in the article:

1. Aleklett once again confirms that 2005-6 was the peak in conventional oil production.

2. Aleklett now believes that "The Peak Oil that we now discuss is the peak of unconventional oil production." In particular, shale oil production is key to detraining when the world hits peak oil.

3. Aleklett goes on to say "Since production of this type of oil is very price sensitive the oil market will be a factor contributing to when we reach the global peak of all oil production. There are strong indications that 2015/2016 may see this global peak."

------------------

After all the predictions of global oil production peaking in 2005 didn't pan out, I'm more cautious in evaluating new estimates of when peak oil will occur-----but there it is. Aleklett thinkss the current oil glut, the drop in US shale oil drill, and the drop in global oil production going on right now due to the current low oil prices may signal the actual top is occurring right now.

Could it be that 2015-16 will actually be the date of PEAK OIL!

[onlooker]

Also, notice in the article how their is some hesitation on the part of oil companies because of how global warming could factor into the equation in terms of society willing to continue to rely on fossil fuels. That definitely could be a factor going forward.

[KaiserJeep]

We're gonna need to burn lots of FF in the USA to run our air conditioning.

[ROCKMAN]

"We're gonna need to burn lots of FF in the USA to run our air conditioning." Especially in Texas which is why we're one of the global leaders in wind generated electricity. And also why we plan to continue burning lots of coal here.

[dashster]

1. Aleklett once again confirms that 2005-6 was the peak in conventional oil production.

What is his definition of conventional oil? Stephen Kopitz said 2005 in a talk, but he doesn't include deep-water ocean as conventional oil. I think if you include that it happens about 6 years later in 2011. At least per a graph I saw somewhere, I think at Peak Oil Barrel. It separated tar sands and tight oil from all other crude oil and for that "non tar-sands, non-fracking crude oil" it showed two or threel years having peaks that exceeded 2005. I think the last was in 2011.

And before anyone says it, we already know that "a barrel of tight oil is just as good as a barrel of West Texas crude and so is a barrel of processed tar sands so it is pointless and stupid to talk about when conventional crude oil peaked".

[dashster]

We're gonna need to burn lots of FF in the USA to run our air conditioning.

There probably should be a peakcoal.com and a peakgas.com as those are also predicted to peak soon by a minority of people. Although you would need to pay a squatter for the rights to either.

[ralfy]

I think the peak refers to the ave. production rate across several years.

[onlooker]

Pstar good point and funny as heck. It is like a ship that is sinking what difference does it make gauging the exact moment the ship goes under. The importance lies in the entire process.

[ralfy]

I think the peak refers to the ave. production rate across several years.

That is one definition. Some folks (mostly deniers) demand a single point in time, a day/week or something we will never be able to identify. It's like a tangent to a circle. I see Peak EVERYWHERE.



I see Dead Economies.

Indeed. Peak oil does refer to the maximum rate of production, but the importance of the phenomenon involves its effects, and those effects take place when production reaches an ave. rate of production, continues to rise but can barely meet demand, or rises only if more expensive replacements are used.

[dashster]

There is no one single date for peak oil.

There has to be one single date in which production will be the highest, even if it is only by a pint versus another day, although the agencies wouldn't be able to track it that accurately.

Economic DEMAND DESTRUCTION is the key engine of post-peak oil decline. Egypt and the rest of the "Arab Spring" countries were priced out of the oil market in 2005, the PIGGS a few years later. Consumption peaked. It is about PEAK CONSUMPTION. Now the oil flows to the wealthy West Chinese manufacturers and spoiled Americans. Bakken Eau de Petroleum is perfume for our SUV's.

This is the recent idea coming out of the optimist side and necessary to explain the decrease in OECD consumption and still remain optimistic. If you think that production constraints led to price increases which decreased consumption, it is pessimistic. But if you think that we just got more efficient, just stopped needing and wanting to do as much with oil, so used less, it is possible to remain optimistic.

When production does begin terminal decline, both sides will be able to make a claim as to why - one can say production limits have been hit, the other can say we just don't need or want as much as we used to. It will take some analysis to see who is correct. Like looking at vehicle miles driven and the price of oil. Although that will still be problematic as the price of oil went up, vehicle miles declined, and rather than seeing that as cause and effect, optimists said we just didn't want to drive as much - irrespective of the price of oil. It could also be said that the high price is a production cost issue not related to supply/demand and that price did not impact demand.

[onlooker]

good points dashter. First explanations given are beside the point. The reality is as with any economic commodity a demand-supply issue. As supply is reduced price must go up in order to re-balance demand with supply. Demand ultimately is at the mercy of supply no matter how anyone spins it. As for exact date of PO, again I and Pstar would reiterate that exact date does not matter. The progressively worse and worse effects are the evidence of the downhill slope of peak oil.