[ROCKMAN]

First, the qualifications. What "oil" is being measured? We've seen a variety of non-traditional " oil" brought into the metric so there may be a tad apple vs oranges going on. OTOH the global consumers don't by oil, crude oil, condensate, NGL's, etc. They buy refined petroleum products. And isn't the primary focus of the peak oil dynamic the effect of this fossil fuel system on the consumers? So break out the non-crude oil component or not: we are still focusing on the bottom line.

And then there's the ability to only see GPO correctly in the rear view mirror...and a fairly long view at that. Consider the US hit PO about 40 years ago. Yet one cannot argue that we haven't at least come close to setting a new USA-PO. This also brings up the "plateau" dynamic: regardless of short term highs and lows the significance of GPO is the unending though erratic decline in global oil production. So how do we define the ultimate GPO vs short term plateau spikes? Not very easily and certainly not unanimously. Similar to pointing to a specific date as GPO the end of a plateau can best be seen in that same rearview mirror.

But none of that prevents speculation. Especially when tagged with ongoing changes in the dynamic. Consider that before one can call GPO we need to reach a new high in global oil production. Which we are at today if one accepts the new working definition of "oil". But back to the earlier point about consumption: the world is currently producing a huge amount of refined petroleum products including the dominant component...motor fuel. It matters little to the consumers and economies how much of those products came from 25 API or 50 API produced liquid petroleum.

This thread is designed to slowly (over the next 12 to 36 months) gather evidence supporting or denying 2015 will EVENTUALLY be honored with the title of the DATE OF GLOBL PEAK OIL. A very important metric to some and just a minor footnote for the Rockman who has always been more focused on the POD then any X on a calendar. With the crash in oil prices and rig counts in the US shale trends balanced against the surge in global oil production this seems like the right time to start. Some might not think that record breaking oil production is an obvious component of this discussion. But consider how much of the mythical " excess oil production capacity" has been brought own to compensate for the lower oil revenue. And that this increase automatically increases the depletion rate of EXISTING proved producing reserves.

But at the same time as the global oil production rate bumps up the new lower oil prices are curtailing the development of new resources. From the decline in rigs drilling the Eagle Ford/Bakken to a number of Canadian oil sands projects, Deep Water projects, Russian Arctic efforts and even production enhancement projects in Saudi Arabia that have been put on hold. Granted should oil prices rise high enough many of those projects will be brought forward. But recall the global depletion dynamic that is continuing at the current unprecedented rate.

The Rockman has more to add but first lets see what our Band of Brothers (and a few Sisters) have to say on the subject. We've been batting around the subject in other threads. Hopefully this thread will garner increasing factual representations and decreasing theories (including the conspiracy types). But it will take many months to get from A to X IMHO. But we have to start somewhere, After all none of like to think of ourselves as a content frog sitting in a slowly warming pot of water. LOL.

[sparky]

.
Hail the Rock , at last some clear vision
I have been having some dark night of the soul about what , is , isn't , couldn't or wouldn't be THE PEAK !! ...drum roll

I've always believed that the stuff extracted from the ground is not what matter,
You have mentioned this quite often.
people don't use crude they use products ,
after much philosophizing at night with many a bottle of Oban whiskey ,I saw the light !

the totally oily product which people use and cannot substitute is jet fuel distillates
as long as production of this increase , we are not there yet !
it is very easy to measure the production , world trade or the air traffic ,
the military users are of course wankers ,cost is not an issue for them
they would use unicorn powder if they could convince congress it would improve national security
not so for the "hoi polloi" and air cargo , this last is the very cutting edge of globalization.

by by cheap air travel , by by fruit and vegetable crossing the oceans to a market near you
this would ,of course , be only one of the many effects but it is one which cannot be hidden ( I think )

[eugene]

This will be interesting. Personally I don't think much about of when peak anything is. It just makes sense to me there is only so much that can be produced at x price. Raise the income and more will be produced but at some point income will cease to produce more. I believe in limits. We can change definitions, rant about fantasy solutions, simply lie or whatever to reduce our anxieties, manipulate the public and a host of other agendas. There are always limits. It's what those limits are that interest me. It will be interesting to read someone with some semblance of knowledge write about this.

[ROCKMAN]

sparky - Along those lines here's the history of jet fuel consumption in the US for the last two decades. Using 1994 as 1 unit it peaked around 1998 at 1.17 and has since fallen regularly down to 0.95 in 2012.

Or if you prefer (for US carriers) from http://www.transtats.bts.gov/fuel.asp

2000 - 13,904 million gallons. 2014 - 10,321 million gallons

[westexas]

EIA data show that virtually all of the post-2011 increase in US Crude + Condensate (C+C) production has been 40+ API gravity C+C, i.e., very light crude and condensate. As API gravity exceeds 40, the distillate yield begins to drop tremendously. And I’m not sure how much demand there may be globally for very light crude and condensate, because of the very limited distillate yield.

US C+C Production by API Gravity, actual and projected (EIA):



In any case, EIA and BP data suggest that actual global crude oil production (45 API gravity and lower crude oil) probably peaked in 2005. From 2005 to 2014, global gas production increased by 24%, global natural gas liquids (NGL) production increased by 27%, but global C+C production only increased by 5%.

Condensate, like NGL, is a byproduct of natural gas production. The only reasonable inference one can draw from the foregoing is that global crude oil production probably peaked in 2005, while global gas production and associated liquids (condensate & NGL) have so far continued to increase.

[Outcast_Searcher]

sparky - Along those lines here's the history of jet fuel consumption in the US for the last two decades. Using 1994 as 1 unit it peaked around 1998 at 1.17 and has since fallen regularly down to 0.95 in 2012.

Or if you prefer (for US carriers) from http://www.transtats.bts.gov/fuel.asp

2000 - 13,904 million gallons. 2014 - 10,321 million gallons

But rock, since oil is a global commodity, wouldn't we need to look at global air travel (vs. just US based) as an indicator? For example, I would think Chindia growth in air travel would be significant, just as it is for cars and the growth of the middle class lifestyle in general.

For example, when I look for "global air travel volume by year" I get the following two links. Both would seem to point to a roughly 5% annual volume growth, with areas like Asia and the Middle East experiencing higher growth than the US. To me, this passes the common sense test.

http://www.businesstravelnews.com/More- ... nes&a=proc

https://www.iata.org/publications/econo ... ec2013.pdf

[Pops]

It is getting to the point that splitting hairs is the point.

Here is a chart from Matt at CrudeOilPeak.info



A 400% increase in price could not increase conventional production even given 10 years to do so. I'm thinking that is a pretty good gauge of a plateau in conventionally sourced oil. Although as you say, as long as it comes out of the nozzle and I can afford it I don't really care where it comes from.

What is a gauge of peak? 10 year and 10% decline?

[Pops]

This is from last year,
the-imminent-peak-in-us-oil-production-t70106.html?hilit=peak

[ROCKMAN]

Outcast - true but I couldn't find anything on the global stat. But it's probably out there some where but I didn't have time to dig deeper. I'm actually on a well in S Texas at the moment.

[Tanada]

Point of order, what if Fracking output is cut about in half as looks to be likely by 1/1/2016 but the world goes into a deep recession and demand is low? We could theoretically fall off the peak for months or even a couple years and not have any solid pro because low demand keeps prices too low for heavy fracking rates. Then when the economy starts to recover conventional oil can no longer cover demand and fracking needs a year or two to ramp back to 2014 levels.

[sparky]

.
More worrrying is the news coming in from oversea fracking
Poland busted , wrong geology amongst other problems , Ukraine has just been abandoned ,
China is nor crowing about any success .
it might just be than the US got lucky with this resource .
even so the backbone of the crude production is still from traditional and offshore wells

[dolanbaker]

.
More worrrying is the news coming in from oversea fracking
Poland busted , wrong geology amongst other problems , Ukraine has just been abandoned ,
China is nor crowing about any success .
it might just be than the US got lucky with this resource .
even so the backbone of the crude production is still from traditional and offshore wells

I suspect that the US was successful for the same reason they got a man to the moon, unlimited money and a willingness to print more if needed. The fact that oil prices remained high was a huge factor in maintaining the "full steam ahead" drive that the fracking companies had.

[AndyA]

I was thinking tracking the end product consumption such as gasoline or av-gas would give a pretty good indication of where we are, even in terms of EROEI. Then I realised I no longer care about what actual day is peak oil, oil production started at zero, it will return to zero, somewhen there will be a peak in production.
I got my rural home, breeding some free range pigs and a few beef cows, still working on the gardening, but I can get veges cheap with cash, I know all my neighbours and a few of the key people in the community, I do my bit to help out where I can. Which is about as good as you can expect, and I probably live as if peak oil has already happened.

[ROCKMAN]

sparky - "...it might just be than the US got lucky with this resource ." To a degree but remember the EFS and Bakken produce 80%+ of the total oil production from the shales. If one combines the volume of the EFS and B and compares it to the volume of the other US shale formations they represent less than 2% of the total. IOW commercially producible shales in this country are rare so why would one not expect them to be a statistical anomaly globally?

And then there's the massive amount of oil field infrastructure/service companies compared to the rest of the world. It matters little if Country X has a viable shale to frac if there's little equipment/personnel to get it done. And now filter the global candidates by the nature of the US operators doing the frac'ng: public companies that have an absolute demand by Wall Street to continually increase there reserves base or see their stock value go down the toilet. Add this fact: the vast majority of global shales are owned by state oil companies and not individuals as in the case in the US. Individuals who are highly motivated to lease their mineral rights and are thus much easier to trade with. And as has been pointed out: capex availability. Which ties back to pubcos who were granted huge credit lines based upon the in ground value of those undeveloped resources.

One can't quantify all those factors. But fortunately the Rockman isn't restricted to logical analysis: the EFS + B represent a fraction of 1% of the PRODUCIBLE hydrocarbon bearing shales on the planet...a very small fraction. IOW even at higher oil prices there has always been very limited shale frac'ng potential global. Thus the report of many of those trends being ignored even when oil was $100+ per bbl is not surprising.

[sparky]

.
That's interesting , how much of the fracking phenomenon was due to easy financial , legislative ,
dense infrastructure and contractor rich environment !
fracking in the lower 48 might be a different proposition that when fracking in a technological desert in bumfuck country
with greedy local bosses and not a decent supplier within one thousand miles.

fracking just might be a rich country game

[Subjectivist]

After the better part of a decade lurking and then posting on this site I am ready for it to be over. All the glimmers of false hope that have been offered since 2008 don't hold a candle to the reality we have made.

[ROCKMAN]

sub - Just I mentioned to my driller just 20 minutes ago: yes, technically speaking, my MS is fatal. But if I'm lucky something else will take me first. So PO might be fatal for you but you're lucky: something else is crushing your soul now. LOL

[sparky]

.
........ It's impossible to have a dark night of the soul with a toothache

live like you will live forever , love like you will die tomorrow

[ROCKMAN]

And crap like the next gas station restroom is 300 miles down the road.

[Pops]

Point of order, what if Fracking output is cut about in half as looks to be likely by 1/1/2016 but the world goes into a deep recession and demand is low?

We fall from a higher cliff.

I did this for the other 2015 thread last year: