[onlooker]

Arable land per capita 1961-2012
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/search/ ... %20failure
I highlight this paragraph:

This graph makes it clear that arable land per capita is monotonically decreasing. The decline isn’t linear; in fact, it’s almost perfectly exponential, with R2 = 0.996 for the default Excel curve fit. Currently, the world has 0.2 hectares (0.49 acres) of arable land per person, down from 0.4 in 1962. Extrapolating the exponential curve, we’ll be down to 0.1 by around 2050, and 0.05 by 2100. So, every 50 years, arable land per capita declines by half. By the year 2100, each person will be supported by just 0.05 hectares (0.12 acres) of agricultural land.

[kiwichick]

@ pstarr

and without oil?

[kiwichick]

@ kc

or water??

[Tanada]

@ pstarr

and without oil?

Without fossil fuels all that land will be made arable via hand labor with perhaps a wood burning steam tractor to use for planting and harvest just as was done in 1905. More likely at least at first it will all by human labor then as the horse/donkey/mule/oxen breeders get up to speed more animal power will be added in. People forget slaves/serfs doing their toilet in the fields was a big help fertilizer and phosphorus wise.

Of course this will be after the climate stabilizes, not in some technotopian future powered by solar power and fusion reactors.

[onlooker]

Of course the big problem is water availability. Second, may be soil erosion as we are losing top soil at dramatic rates. Third, one has to wonder if any combination of composting, manure etc. can make up for the non-solar addition we have obtained from synthetic fossil fuels via the Haber-Bosch process. This is a lot of nitrogen we have introduced into our agricultural systems which I read in some articles has allowed some 40 % more humans to be alive. Now, I do not know if that is a correct estimate but you have to wonder if without this additional abundant input we can sustain anywhere near the same population levels.

[kiwichick]

any sensible government will do every thing it can to ensure that the agricultural system continues to provide food for it's citizens

without food we are heading for revolution before we get to starvation

[Tanada]

any sensible government will do every thing it can to ensure that the agricultural system continues to provide food for it's citizens

without food we are heading for revolution before we get to starvation

Perhaps your government officials are sensible and this gives you a sense of optimism? Unfortunately mine are not.

[sunweb]

pstarr - The primary need is you research it would be good soil. The amazon soil is leached and poor, so not just oil but the real bank account - dirt.

[vtsnowedin]

Have you seen those calculations about how many people the world can support? They come up with something like 44 billion if everybody ate nothing but corn and all arable land was converted to growing corn. What bothers me about these calcs. and these graphs is that they are way too simplistic. For starters much of the worlds arable land is not suitable for growing corn when water supply and seasonal temperatures are considered.
In fact farmers all over the world are working hard at growing the best crop for the land they have and the water supply and weather they are getting.
To think that they can switch crops and feed some more billions is just stupid.
And before any Vegans pipe in about how many more could eat well if I stopped eating meat let me say that I choose to not live on a diet of corn meal mush, and as long as I have the land or other means there will be meat on the table daily.

[dohboi]

"cornmeal mush"

(In the voice of Homer Simpson, dreamily:)

"Hmmmmmm, cornmeal mush....."



'meat on the table daily'

Repeat over and over and over ad beyond nauseum, zombie-like...all together now:

Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
Must eat something with a face every single day...
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