[Sixstrings]

Well, some thought the Obama admin had given approval to Russian moves in Syria. Apparently, not:

US warns Russia against more aid to Assad amid new violence

BEIRUT (AP) — Anti-government violence erupted Saturday in a southern Syrian province that had largely stayed on the sidelines of the country's civil war. Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports suggesting that Russia was planning to expand its military support for Syrian President Bashar Assad prompted a warning from the U.S. that such actions could lead to a confrontation with coalition forces.

...

In Washington, the State Department issued a statement after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to express concern over unconfirmed reports "suggesting an imminent enhanced Russian military build-up" in Syria.

While not elaborating on or confirming the accuracy of those reports, the State Department said Kerry made clear to Lavrov that such actions "could further escalate the conflict, lead to greater loss of innocent life, increase refugee flows and risk confrontation" with the anti-Islamic State coalition operating led by the U.S. that is carrying out strikes in Syria.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20150905/ml--syria-7872368035.html

We'll see what happens on this. It's a very tricky situation for Russia, any kind of intervention down there. Even without the US in the mix -- Syria is just a very, very big mess. I predict Russia will be cautious. Any serious intervention has massive downsides to it for Russia. I'm just telling it like it is, that place and the whole thing about the ME and then Iraq and Iran pushing out, it's all a massive hornet's nest.

It would actually be beyond Russia's capability, alone, to intervene and get control over.

Russia could just be testing the waters a bit, on some intervention / aid on Assad's behalf. Also likely, they're primarily interested in shoring up their naval base in case the Assad govt falls -- so that's why they're positioning forces and a forward operating base.

[Subjectivist]

Oh please all the toothless tiger can do is roar. No government able to hit back is the least bit concerned about what President Ovama will do.

[Cog]

Unless the Russians are willing to put boots on the ground in substantial numbers, they will not affect the outcome of this war in any serious way. The US is having the same issue in Iraq. This is a ground war and aerial bombardment isn't going to change much.

If the Russians want a repeat of Afghanistan, they are welcome to have fun in the sandbox again. Many Russian coffins going back to the Motherland is a winner for me.

[Keith_McClary]

If the Russians want a repeat of Afghanistan, they are welcome to have fun in the sandbox again. Many Russian coffins going back to the Motherland is a winner for me.

Given your anti-interventionist opinions, I guess you think American coffins going back to the Motherland (from no-US-interest interventions) is a winner also.

[Cog]

Obama, who I despise with the fury of a 1000 burning stars, is actually correct in not putting American boots on the ground in Syria. If the Russians want to intervene and stick their hands on this tar-baby, who am I to deny them this pleasure?

From my times as a cold war warrior, the thoughts of Russian soldiers being returned to the Rodina in coffins, is something we trained for about quite a bit in those days. Dead ISIS and dead Russians. I fail to see the downside here.

[SeaGypsy]

Russia has the same problem as France & Germany, which China partially overcame & is fast tracking overcoming via the de-annexation of Hong Kong- Anglicisation of business systems law, effectively requiring courts & parliament to understand English & be able to operate in English & conform to Anglo American standards of business.

I'm not at all into linguistic supremacism, just noting the nuance of the times. Note for example the BRICS, what language do they use when not running everything through interpreters?

Anyway, Russia has a port to defend, Assad has so little left to fight with he is counting days until his people face genocide, millions have fled, he has not. Iran wants to save Assad for ethno political reasons, they have by far the best army in the region, Russia wants to arm them to the teeth & get some of the freshly released 165 billion.

What's the downside?
Assad stays. Sunni/ Shia/ Kurd repartition of Iraq, Syria, possibly Yemen. Consolidation of Iran's counterbalance to Saud.

Is Obama stupid enough to lead a new war essentially over one man? A man with 10 times his balls? Probably, but he won't be allowed to. Russia & Iran know this & have picked their timing accordingly.

My hope is to see Iran & Syrian nationalists backed by Russia push IS into the sea, while the US & the rest of us try to help clean up the mess.

I do wish we could all get over the cold war bs & recognize our common good & common enemies.

[Cog]

Unless Russia and/or Iran is willing to commit at least a Corp level ground force(multiple divisions), then they aren't going to dislodge ISIS from Iraq or Syria. This war can not be won with air power.

Mosul, Iraq's third largest city, is still in the hands of ISIS a year after ISIS took it away from the Iraqi army. So you aren't going to get much help from them.

[Fishman]

Wow, I'm actually agreeing with Seagyp. Russia is defending a port,perhaps all they wish from the entire conflict. And actually disagreeing with Cog. The Russia won't play the same ballgame as Afghanistan. They didn't need Afghanistan as much as they need Syria, and they have someone playing ball with them in the Iranians. Russia supplies weapons, guidance, Iranians supply the cannon fodder. The Russians will play hardball with ISIS that the invertebrate Obama will never even consider

[dissident]

F*cks will be given to the hypocritical bitching of the self-designated "hyperpower".

America: why don't you make Russia stop countering your demented imperial ambitions. Go on, show them how mighty you are. Have some of your joystick warriors try to drone Putin in Moscow. See what happens.

[Cog]

The body bags, with Russian soldiers in them will flow back to the Rodina, just like they are from Ukraine, without any droning from the US going on. I'm looking forward to Russia sticking their nose into this situation. Should be quite amusing to see some sometimes sober Russian soldiers try to take on some Islamists.

[Sixstrings]

Russia's relations with all the nations in the middle east will be affected by what Russia does or does not do, it's not America's fault.

Even if the US completely pulled out of the region, if Russia just totally backs Assad and Iran then you're still going to have the rest of the region (sunni) madder than heck at Russia.

This all COULD work to the West's favor. If Russia fights ISIS then that's a good thing and something everyone wants. But if Russia also fights Assad's other opposition -- the moderate opposition -- then that's gonna piss off all the sunni nations. Which therefore pushes them firmly back into the American sphere. That's a win-win situation, for the US.

Putin has done some things lately that look like he may want to tack it down the middle and make a play for being a leader in the entire region -- shia and sunni.

Yet if he backs Assad and Iran TOO much, then that ruins it, all Russia has then is Assad and Iran with the rest of the ME united against.

In all fairness, you can't blame everything on the USA.

Russia is making some moves in the ME.. Putin could be a neutral great power and maybe hegemon in the entire region.

Or, Putin could choose to totally back Iran and Assad.

This is up to Putin, it is his decision, you can't blame Washington DC for whichever course he decides.

Also, let's not make too much of things, and be objective and fair. Russia isn't doing much so far.

At the end of the day, if Russia wants to roll all into the ME then I don't really care. AT LEAST it's not Poland, or Holland, or Denmark, or Sweden ya know? Just don't be doing this stuff in Europe, do it in other places of the world and Russia would get a lot more slack.

And another thing -- BOTH Russia AND the usa actually have to take into account the COST of interventions versus what it actually GAINS. Like, does this sh*t even bring any money in or just bankrupt the treasury? Costs, and benefits, a great power doesn't go invade places just to wave the flag. There must be a benefit that is WORTH IT.

Russia has a naval base in Syria, and that means strategic port access in the ME, and then Russia sells weapons to Assad and Russia is deep involved with Iran. And sells weapons to Egypt, and would like to with other nations. So that's all a certain strategic / monetary benefit.

But does it add up to more than the COST of a major war in the middle east, what that would cost in money, to Russia? No.

[Cog]

I have doubts whether Assad is in a position to pay for anything at this point. His country is a wreck and a lot of his oil wells are in ISIS control. He did have monetary reserves when I looked at it two years ago but I doubt he has much cash at this point.

At this point in the game, Russia is just going to bleed money into propping up Assad. Sounds good to me. He can make some money off of Iran though if he convinces them to go on a spending spree for substandard Russian tanks and aircraft.

[Sixstrings]

At this point in the game, Russia is just going to bleed money into propping up Assad. Sounds good to me. He can make some money off of Iran though if he convinces them to go on a spending spree for substandard Russian tanks and aircraft.

Good points, it's a lot of costly downside for Russia. And, as Russia intervenes on Assad's behalf, that's really going to piss off all those sunni countries (and Israel, too).

So, Russia replacing the US in the ME wouldn't be a concern. Putin met with the saudis in Moscow -- Lavrov was overheard saying "fucking morons," on an open mic. That probably ruined any saudi-russo alliance right there.

If not, fighting for Iran and Assad definitely ruins it.

(sorry for the profanity, that's actually a direct quote from the Russian foreign minister)

P.S. And to be clear, ISIS really is a horror. If Russia could just fight ISIS but not everyone else Assad is fighting, then that would be fine and helpful. My opinion would be that if the US decided not to regime change Assad, if I were president leading the coalition, I'd tell the Russians they can fight ISIS but obviously there's a problem if they start fighting the moderate opposition too.

And if it were up to me, US forces-led coalition would have defeated ISIS by now.

[Sixstrings]

Analysts Link Syria to Latest US Sanctions on Russia

MOSCOW — Amid growing reports that Russian forces are taking part in Syria’s ongoing civil war, the United States has sanctioned Russian arms export agency Rosoboronexport and four defense firms for alleged technology control violations, preventing any US department or agency from entering into contracts or agreements with those firms.

...

“These entities were sanctioned based on credible information that they have been involved in the transfer or purchase to or from Iran, North Korea or Syria of goods, services or technology listed on multilateral export control lists, US national control lists, or other items that could make a material contribution to the development of weapons of mass destruction or missile proliferation,” said US Embassy Moscow spokesman Will Stevens.

Siemon Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, told Defense News that “the main result [of the sanctions] will be that US agencies cannot work with the sanctioned firms,” unless specific exemptions are made.

“I can imagine that an exemption would be made to buy spare parts for Mi-17 helicopters that the US recently bought for the Afghan Army,” Wezeman said. Rosoboronexport completed the contract last year.

Rosoboronexport is the doorway between Russia’s defense industry and foreign export customers. The agency claimed to have delivered $13.2 billion in military exports last year, and at the recent MAKS airshow said Russia’s export backlog amounts to $40 billion.
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/industry/2015/09/06/analysts-link-syria-latest-us-sanctions-russia/71710748/

[ralfy]

The goal of Russia is to play the same game as the U.S. In both cases, citizens pay one way or another.

[Keith_McClary]

And if it were up to me, US forces-led coalition would have defeated ISIS by now.

Aren't these more or less the same guys you've been "defeating" for a decade?

[dissident]

The goal of Russia is to play the same game as the U.S. In both cases, citizens pay one way or another.

That is a BS notion based on nothing. The only Empire out there is actively building NATO bases on Russia's borders and deploying missile systems aimed at giving it the nuclear first strike option. I don't see Russia building bases around America's borders and engaging in coup engineering in Mexico or Central America. Russia is doing the right thing defending Syria from some insane ethnic cleansing organized by Washington's minions. Washington doesn't like Assad, well, tough shit. Nobody gave America the right to decide what is best for Syria, Ukraine or any other location it targets with its campaigns of hate and regime change.

[dissident]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... NOC_kI3jVM

As usual the NATO and fellow traveler media spreads lies. Putin made no admission of any involvement in Syria aside from contracts signed 5 to 7 years ago. BTW, back then this is the sort of coverage we had of Syria:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... pN8zp3oHc8

Once Washington decides on a regime change operation, the "free" media snaps to attention and starts to spread lies and smear to justify Washington's imperial meddling.

[dissident]

The Al Nusra "photo" purporting to show a Russian jet is a total fake.

[Sixstrings]

Russia Answers U.S. Criticism Over Military Aid to Syria

MOSCOW — The Foreign Ministry here expressed surprise on Monday over an American warning to Russia against escalating the conflict in Syria, saying that the Kremlin’s Syrian policy — in particular furnishing military aid to help the government confront extremist forces — had been consistent for years.

“We have always supplied equipment to them for their struggle against terrorists,” Maria V. Zakharova, the Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said in an interview. “We are supporting them, we were supporting them and we will be supporting them” in that fight.

The sharp exchanges over Russian military aid to the Syrian government appeared to have dampened a brief spirit of cooperation, starting in early August, when Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia agreed on a renewed effort to reach a political solution to the Syria crisis.

“It is basically a chance to play on Obama’s checkerboard,” said Konstantin Von Eggert, an independent political analyst, with Mr. Putin saying: “You want to fight the Islamic State. I am there. I am ready. Ah, sorry, you don’t really want to fight.”

Russia may try to use American criticism of any military aid as proof that the Obama administration is soft on the Islamic State and only wants to topple President Bashar al-Assad, he said, so “it can be presented as an American unwillingness to fight evil.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/08/world/europe/russia-answers-us-criticism-over-military-aid-to-syria.html?_r=0

U.S. asks Greece to deny Russian flights to Syria

The United States has asked Greece to deny Russia the use of its airspace for supply flights to Syria, a Greek official said on Monday, after Washington told Moscow it was deeply concerned by reports of a Russian military build up in Syria.

The Greek foreign ministry said the request was being examined. Russian newswire RIA Novosti earlier said Greece had refused the U.S. request, adding that Russia was seeking permission to run the flights up to Sept. 24.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/07/us-mideast-crisis-syria-russia-idUSKCN0R70WT20150907

Exposing Russia’s Secret Army in Syria

Some wear uniforms, some don’t, but from highway checkpoints to jet fighters, Russians are being spotted all over the Assad dictatorship’s heartland.

Russian military officers are now in Damascus and meeting regularly with Iranian and Syrian counterparts, according to a source with close contacts in the Bashar al-Assad regime. “They’re out in restaurants and cafes with other high officials in the Syrian Army,” the source told The Daily Beast, “mainly concentrated in Yaafour and Sabboura, areas that are close to each other, and in west Mezze,” referring to a district in the capital where Assad’s praetorian Fourth Armored Division keeps an important airbase. “The Russians aren’t in uniform, but they’re constantly hanging out with officers from the Syrian Army’s central command.”

Other Syrians claim to have seen Russians in uniform.

One family that recently traveled from Aleppo to Damascus by taxi before emigrating by plane to Turkey says it saw a small contingent of Russian troops embedded with Syrians at a military checkpoint in the capital. “We were near the Shaghour district when we noticed two soldiers who were not Syrian,” a family representative said. “They were tall, blond and blue-eyed and wore different fatigues from the Syrians and carried weapons.

I’m telling you, they were Russian.”
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/05/exposing-russia-s-secret-army-in-syria.html