[dohboi]

I'd love to hear what people think about the first few chapters of this book:

https://heteromeles.files.wordpress.com ... ample1.pdf

Here, the first 43 pages are made available.

Lot's of good stuff here, and much that has been discussed extensively on these threads.

I have some quibbles (at least) with a few passages, but I'd rather hear what others have to say before sharing my kvetches.

[Hawkcreek]

I liked it overall. Some good data. And well written for an obvious tech kind of guy.
I didn't think the dismissal of the singularity possibility was well thought out.
If I were an AI, smarter than any human in the room, my first project would be to develop robots capable of scouring the world for any resources I might need to keep myself alive.
Or any one of a hundred schemes designed to keep myself plugged in.

[onlooker]

Thanks Dohboi for that link. I started browsing through it and a passage caught my eye. It is the part where the author assesses the likelihood of us destroying the Earth, all life, ourselves or our civilization. He points that even if we wanted to we could not presently destroy either the Earth or all life on the Earth. Then comes the more ambiguous part whereby the author states that is is possible for us to become extinct but not with any certainty. I would agree that we are very resourceful and clever in keeping with our high intelligence. The author points out that their is a subset of humans who are survivalists who would be best equipped to survive or at least those type when the time comes. On the other hand many in the present are more physically fragile then we have ever been in the past. Finally, the author notes that our civilization is at high risk of disappearing as even the attempts to control Climate Change would involve such drastic restructuring of our societies that a future civilization would be built on the ashes of this current one. I would add my personal opinion that building any civilization in the future anywhere near as technological and complex as this one is highly unlikely because of various factors the most prominent being we no longer would have access to that rich concentrated fossil fuel energy. All and all, I look forward to reading some more

[Yukon fisher]

Similar to yourself, I like much of the sample you posted. Similarly I have "quibbles" too.
I am particularly sceptical of his estimates of carbon emissions over the next century. I think it more likely that it will be far lower, either because BAU undergoes a Tainter type collapse or because we actually get a handle on things and craft a utopia filled with sugar plum fairies.
OTOH, I am comforted by his scepticism around things such as humanity's ability to do the right thing- particularly over the long term (however you define it).
I might buy it!

[claman]

I think he has too many excuses for what he thinks reality looks like. Too many excuses for the conclusions he will make. And words, words, words.
Line up your parameters, make your conclusions, and take whatever shit you're gonna get.

[dohboi]

ol, I found it a bit cavalier how he basically says basically--We can't destroy the physical planet, we can't destroy every last microbe...so people are making too big of a deal of everything.

Commmmme onnnnn!

Doesn't he think wiping out nearly all complex life, turning biology back hundreds of thousands of years, and fundamentally altering the life support systems that make the earth livable for nearly anything that evolved in the last few million years...isn't that a pretty darn big deal.

Oh, and the possibly the largest mass extinction level event since complex life evolved!!!

Only an utter moron would think that when people talk about 'saving the planet' they are talking about the ball of mostly magma or microbes that live five miles deep in the earths crust.

It's just an enormous strawman.

But a lot of the other stuff he has to say is at least worth reading.

Thanks to others for their perspectives, too. Actually, the flaws in his writing kinda make me think that, hey, maybe I should write my own version of this. I think lots of posters here could write pretty interesting versions of this from their own perspectives, too.

[onlooker]

thanks D, I agree that to understate a mass extinction event is rather odd. With your expertise dohboi you certainly could write a similar book. If you did, I would reserve a copy for sure.

[dohboi]

I think a group project may be more interesting.

[onlooker]

Dohboi, I am quite curious how do you see the assessments of Cid Yama in regards to his dire predictions of very soon entering into conditions that will devolve into mass extinction conditions. He has cited as early as 2020 for the real intense climate calamities to begin. So overall would you agree with his views?

[ennui2]

thanks D, I agree that to understate a mass extinction event is rather odd. With your expertise dohboi you certainly could write a similar book. If you did, I would reserve a copy for sure.

I think this viewpoint is going to become more common as time goes on, though, as we search for silver linings in all this.