[davep]

I'm expecting a slight blip due to some geopolitical madness between now and the end of the year, before the price comes down again. But, I would, given it would make my chances of winning a lot higher!

[PeakOiler]

There's still almost half a year to go in our little game of roulette. A lot can happen between now and Dec. 31st. I've found it interesting to see how our pool of players performs against or reflects the various forces upon WTI oil prices based on their points of view. It's also interesting to compare our pool of players' estimates versus the "professional" analysts such as GS, EIA, IEA, etc. I may review this thread to see what was predicted in the earlier postings and re-quote those estimates.

Others can do that too.

I still think there will be a good rally in prices by the end of the year, even though we may see a dip over the next few months. We'll see.

[salinsky]

The ROCKMAN has challenged us guessers as to what the closing price for WTI and Brent will be on the last bidness day of October.
I guess WTI 48.12 Brent a couple bucks more. I'd like to see some guesses from the rest of the prognosticators. Come on, have a go at it!

SAl

[PeakOiler]

The ROCKMAN has challenged us guessers as to what the closing price for WTI and Brent will be on the last bidness day of October.
I guess WTI 48.12 Brent a couple bucks more. I'd like to see some guesses from the rest of the prognosticators. Come on, have a go at it!

SAl

I'll think about it. What is the ROCKMAN's guess? Which thread did he post that challenge?

Meanwhile, the only change in the standings this week was that AgentR11 and I switched spots.

[PeakOiler]

OK, below is NOT an official scorecard of the 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge, but a "What If?" version IF the ROCKMAN had played. His "guesses" were made in fun in another thread, so let the fun continue!



ROCKMAN: I assumed a closing price for you since you didn't specifically give one in the other thread.

Note that the average price was just a guess in the scorecard, but is pretty close to yesterday's data.

[PeakOiler]

Well, with the drop in prices, another shakeup in the standings:



As I mentioned above, there's still a lot of year left in this game!

[salinsky]

Ay dios mio I predicted my downfall three weeks ago. The only thing that can bring me back to first place is if de Norte Americanos start driving all over de hell for no reason, and then be bringing up the prices.

[PeakOiler]

Ay dios mio I predicted my downfall three weeks ago. The only thing that can bring me back to first place is if de Norte Americanos start driving all over de hell for no reason, and then be bringing up the prices.

And I suggested upthread that there would be a dip in prices over the next few months but a rally toward the end of the year.

Don't fret Sal! You may still take the #1 spot for a bit before I pass you in the final leg of the game!

[Plantagenet]

I must be the only person left who still believes in peak oil.

Every year my high price estimate is way too high because I keep expecting peak oil to kick in.

COME ON PEAK OIL. ANY DAY NOW. OIL PRICE GOING UP UP UP. YOU CAN DO IT!!!!

[PeakOiler]

I must be the only person left who still believes in peak oil.

Every year my high price estimate is way too high because I keep expecting peak oil to kick in.

COME ON PEAK OIL. ANY DAY NOW. OIL PRICE GOING UP UP UP. YOU CAN DO IT!!!!

LOL, you need to shake up your "Magic 8 Ball" better before you ask it "is this the year?", or clean your crystal ball off first.

There were no changes in the standings this week.

[EdwinSm]

There were no changes in the standings this week.

My happy dance:

So I will continue my shocking position at the top of the table I suppose that this proves Rockman's point that with so many and varied guesses by "experts" someone has to be close to the actual results.

Please don't look at my previous year's guess when I was far from being correct

[PeakOiler]

Here's an article making a prediction by Goldman Sachs that oil will be in the $50's range next year:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN10E035

Oil prices jumped more than 3 percent on Wednesday, with U.S. crude futures returning to above $40 a barrel, after a larger-than-expected gasoline draw offset a surprise build in crude stockpiles in the No. 1 oil consumer.

U.S. crude inventories rose for a second week in a row, gaining 1.4 million barrels last week, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 1.4 million barrels, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed.

Gasoline stocks slumped by 3.3 million barrels, versus forecasts for a 200,000-barrel drop. The large draw assuaged some market participants' worry of a gasoline glut amid the peak U.S. summer driving season.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 settled up $1.32, or 3.3 percent, at $40.83 a barrel. On Tuesday, it settled below $40 a barrel for the first time since April.

Goldman Sachs held its 2017 forecast of $52.50 and near-term range of $45-$50 for WTI.

We shall see...

I still think we will see a rally into the 50s by the end of this year.

My guess for WTI by the end of Oct. is $42.55.

[salinsky]

I wonder why there doesn't seem to be much interest in this thread compared to past years. It it simply because most everyone is glad to have the continuing low gas prices and no further thought required, or due to an underlying malaise.

I'd like to see the rally only to the point where it brings me back into the number one spot.

[radon1]

It would be interesting to see how the participants did altogether during the years when the challenge was held. In other words, how the total averages across all participants corresponded to the actuals, in the form of a diagram or a table with the place that "the average participant" took in the ranks. Who knows, such analysis may produce interesting results.

[Subjectivist]

Woo Hoo, I still have last place and nobody can take it from me this year!

[PeakOiler]

It would be interesting to see how the participants did altogether during the years when the challenge was held. In other words, how the total averages across all participants corresponded to the actuals, in the form of a diagram or a table with the place that "the average participant" took in the ranks. Who knows, such analysis may produce interesting results.

I don't have pup55's data when he started the Oil Price Challenge. I'm sure it's in the archives. All the po.com Oil Price Challenges can be searched in the po.com database.

Anyone can look up the old posts and make a table. I might post a table from the data I have. Don't hold your breath.

cx-portal currently shows WTI just a bit above $42 so far today.

http://www.cx-portal.com/wti/oil_en.html

[PeakOiler]

OK, at Radon's request, I put together the following data since 2009. This does not include pupp55's previous games:

[radon1]

OK, at Radon's request, I put together the following data since 2009. This does not include pupp55's previous games:

Oh, thanks a lot! It doesn't look like the group as a whole has a vast predicting power, even though some close matches did take place. 2013 one was really good actually, I wonder why. May be because of altogether lower volatility at that time.

[PeakOiler]

Oh, thanks a lot! It doesn't look like the group as a whole has a vast predicting power, even though some close matches did take place. 2013 one was really good actually, I wonder why. May be because of altogether lower volatility at that time.

No problem. I think our group tends to have more "doomier" guesses (esp. the high guesses) which skews the averages and thus our results against the actual prices over the year.

Another variable is that our pool or players has shrunk from about 50 players in 2009 compared to only 27 in 2015.

I bet if we took the averages of our top ten players and compared those to the actuals, we might see a better comparison.

The only change in the standings this week were that Seagypsy and Observerbrb switched spots. The closing price as of Aug. 8th was $43.06 and the average price is now $40.29.

[PeakOiler]

With a closing price of $45.72 on August 15, the standings are back to about where they were a few weeks ago:



I wonder what a tropical storm in the GOM near oil infrastructure might affect WTI prices for awhile? I've read that the hurricane season is still supposed to be more active this year, the most since 2012.

See Salinski? Right on schedule as I mentioned above. Another dip in the next few weeks is not out of the question. The rally will begin in earnest in November.

<--crosses fingers...