[RFA]

Drawing on their extensive knowledge of the oil industry, Roberto F. Aguilera and Marian Radetzki provide an in-depth examination of the price of the world's most important commodity. They argue that although oil has experienced an extraordinary price increase over the past few decades, we have now reached a turning point where scarcity, uncertain supply and high prices will be replaced by abundance, undisturbed availability and suppressed price levels. They look at the potential of new global oil revolutions to bring the upward price push to an end and examine the implications of this turnaround for the world economy, as well as for politics, diplomacy, military interventions and the efforts to stabilize climate.

http://www.amazon.com/Price-Oil-Roberto-F-Aguilera/dp/1107525624/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1448897264&sr=8-1&keywords=the+price+of+oil

[Pops]

While some believe that depletion and thus rising costs can explain price developments, the continuous rise of global oil reserves along with the high level of pre-tax profits in the industry are clear indicators that depletion has not been a factor behind the observed oil price evolution.

Long summary here:
http://www.energypost.eu/price-oil-rose ... ans-world/

[Pops]

Roberto F. Aguilera
Research Analyst at OPEC
July 2013 – Present (2 years 5 months)

https://www.linkedin.com/in/roberto-f-aguilera-7970b165

[Outcast_Searcher]

While some believe that depletion and thus rising costs can explain price developments, the continuous rise of global oil reserves along with the high level of pre-tax profits in the industry are clear indicators that depletion has not been a factor behind the observed oil price evolution.

Long summary here:
http://www.energypost.eu/price-oil-rose ... ans-world/

Since, reading through this long summary, talk of BAU growth, demand growth from the third world, etc. seems to be blissfully ignored -- this seems hopelessly flawed.

Assuming that, for example, Chindia won't produce a tremendous additional demand on overall oil consumption via all the new drivers that clamor for cars so their family can tour the country etc, seems myopic at best.

I'm not buying it. It sounds like another corny version of the techtopian dream to save us.

For the supply side, I don't know enough to assess confidently. But their concept that for both conventional and unconventional oil, there will globally be ongoing massive new supplies (unlocked by new tech like horizontal drilling) -- everywhere oil is produced, over the next 20 years (reflecting the American fracking revolution of the last decade) sure differs from the oft-cited opinion on this site that fracking, horizontal drilling, etc. isn't sustainable either environmentally or via economically viable supply over the long term.

And if they're right about the ongoing supply, well won't THAT be "wonderful" for the direction, pace, and impact of AGW?

So, I'm not quite ready to have the "hooray, we're saved!" party quite yet.

[ROCKMAN]

Outcast - IMHO you're being very generous in your criticism. Myself and many others have gone into detail why their expectations deserve no merit at all, It is obvious to me from the little I’ve read they understand nothing about the actual process of oil/NG extraction.

[tom_s2]

Hi rockman,

Why do you think their claims deserve no merit? Do you think they are overestimating the amount of tight oil which could be extracted from countries outside the USA?

Personally, I have no opinion but I would like to hear several informed perspectives on this.

I realize you said that "[you] and many others have gone into detail...", however I don't usually read the commentary on po.com, because there's a lot of it.

-Tom S

[Keith_McClary]

While some believe that depletion and thus rising costs can explain price developments, the continuous rise of global oil reserves along with the high level of pre-tax profits in the industry are clear indicators that depletion has not been a factor behind the observed oil price evolution.

Long summary here:
http://www.energypost.eu/price-oil-rose ... ans-world/

Uses the word "revolution" 29 times.

...

Have you done any numbers or is it all like the summary ?