[keepitlow]

On the news I hear about computer warfare against out electric grid. OK, so they get it down. Why would it takes weeks or months to turn it back on?

[Cog]

When the grid fails there are feedbacks like blown transformers and blown electronics. Depends on how malicious the attacker wants to be and how much control they have over the process.

[Pops]

An actual attack "force" would be required, not a couple of guys in a basement.
Attacks would be aimed at critical infrastructure controlled via the internet. Once access is gained the asset would be made to self destruct as in the vid of the diesel generator we've all seen.
So cause a turbine in any generation facility to over-rev. Flip a few digital switches and overload transformers, open the floodgates on large dams, do whatever mischief at oil refineries and chemical plants. Erase the big banks (5 banks control half the assets)... Then blow up the net and take down the grid.

An article on the grid from Ted Koppel, newly minted Doomer: [new link]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html


Pretty well just use your imagination, here is a link
https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&gl= ... astructure

[Tanada]

An actual attack "force" would be required, not a couple of guys in a basement.
Attacks would be aimed at critical infrastructure controlled via the internet. Once access is gained the asset would be made to self destruct as in the vid of the diesel generator we've all seen.
So cause a turbine in any generation facility to over-rev. Flip a few digital switches and overload transformers, open the floodgates on large dams, do whatever mischief at oil refineries and chemical plants. Erase the big banks (5 banks control half the assets)... Then blow up the net and take down the grid.

An article on the grid from Ted Koppel, newly minted Doomer:




Pretty well just use your imagination, here is a link
https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&gl= ... astructure

Pops your first link sent my browser to a 'security update' website not related to my actual browser.

[Pops]

New link to the original at Washington Post ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... story.html

[Ibon]

Actually imagine the reset this will put into peoples heads. Having to suddenly manage without the internet, without refrigeration, etc.

A tree fell on our penstock a couple months ago, we lost all our hydro power. Refrigerators, floor freezer, hot water tank, microwave, coffee maker, rice cooker, power tools, everything down. Had to make do with propane for a couple days.

A society at large going through this kind of reset would be beneficial as an early lesson in understanding our dependencies. From there some might put a few more thoughts into the infrastructure we take for granted.

All the time laid off from work as companies scramble to deal with no power.

Families sitting around at night playing board games by candle light, no damn digital bullshit. People getting to know each other again. Parents getting to know the kids again.

Silver linings.

[Tanada]

Actually imagine the reset this will put into peoples heads. Having to suddenly manage without the internet, without refrigeration, etc.

A tree fell on our penstock a couple months ago, we lost all our hydro power. Refrigerators, floor freezer, hot water tank, microwave, coffee maker, rice cooker, power tools, everything down. Had to make do with propane for a couple days.

A society at large going through this kind of reset would be beneficial as an early lesson in understanding our dependencies. From there some might put a few more thoughts into the infrastructure we take for granted.

All the time laid off from work as companies scramble to deal with no power.

Families sitting around at night playing board games by candle light, no damn digital bullshit. People getting to know each other again. Parents getting to know the kids again.

Silver linings.

I have been meaning to ask you Ibon and this seems like a good time. Do you have a root cellar? How warm are root cellars in your local climate? Here if I dig a root cellar it will stay around 52 F all summer and winter, but you are very close to the equator in comparison.

[Pops]

"by candle light"

The average American family has maybe 2 tapers in the cabinet and a potpourri scented fart candle in the bathroom. Maybe a coleman and a couple cups of fuel if they are outdoorsy or a pleasantly scented oil lamp on the mantle that would be as likely to burn down the house before the wick was trimmed as light up the old board game.

Remember "Jericho" that show about EOTW? Candles were seemingly in endless supply, 5-10-20 lit at one time per room.

Stuff like that cracks me up.

[Newfie]

http://www.britelyt.com/

[Pops]

I have an old car camping stove that can burn just about anything. But the problem soon becomes, after I drain the oil from the car, should I burn the wesson oil or save the calories to keep the kids from starving before I take all their monopoly money?
LOL

[Newfie]

Feed the kids, save the methane.

[Ibon]

I have been meaning to ask you Ibon and this seems like a good time. Do you have a root cellar? How warm are root cellars in your local climate? Here if I dig a root cellar it will stay around 52 F all summer and winter, but you are very close to the equator in comparison.

Our lodge is at 1900m (6300 feet). Cool mornings in the upper 50's lower 60's and then mid afternoon rising up to the upper 70's. lower 80's. The cabins are built with no insulation. Down or synthetic duvets on all the beds . We are 9 degrees north of the equator but our elevation gives us year round spring time climate. We don't have a root cellar but we have a storage room on the first floor on the north west side of the lodge where there is also a tree that shades this side of the building. We store all our coffee there and potatoes and wine as the temperature is a pretty constant between 58-73 degrees.

We grow small amounts of potatoes. If we ever mastered large quantities we might try digging a hole and storing them. Potatoes in large monoculture plots require lots of pest control so we aren't really focused on that. We just plant a few rows every year and a half and try to get a harvest out before the pests take over.

We have a greenhouse, 30 foot by 15 and we put up a hydroponic system using off the shelf PVC pipe and pump. We are getting better slowly at growing greens and tomatoes as we have complete control of water, fertilizers and the temperature range here at 6300 feet is perfect for growing without the need of heating or cooling. It does get up to close to 90 degrees in the mid afternoon in the green house when we just leave the door open and allow cross ventilation to keep things cool.

Until now everything I wrote seems kind of optimal and idyllic. There are challenges here.

[yellowcanoe]

http://www.britelyt.com/

I'm planning to get rid of my Coleman lantern as it is a rather expensive way to get lighting. Coleman camping fuel in Canada goes for at least $20 for a US gallon plus tax. The light you provided a link to is multifuel but I would still consider the conversion of any liquid fuel to light to be inherently inefficient. For camping, we now use LED headlamps and an LED lantern both outfitted with rechargeable batteries. The LED lantern is much lighter and smaller than a Coleman lantern and costs pennies to recharge. We could handle an extended power outage using our supply of non-rechargeable batteries. Another option would be to purchase a small solar panel to recharge batteries.

[Pops]

Exactly, canoe.
Lithium rechargeables and LEDs are really the killer app for prepish lighting.

[Newfie]

Provided you can charge them and the batteries don't fail.

No perfect solutions in the long run.

[Pops]

Sure.
Compared to say, prior to 2010, those 2 things are really a huge advantage over anything before.

[KaiserJeep]

I don't think it will take months to get the grid back up.

To begin with, the grid infrastructure is old - a surprising number of control rooms exist where people throw manual switches.

Secondly, we are in fact hardening the grid - as time passes, it becomes less vulnerable to a cyber attack, not more so.

Now if you want to talk about a real hazard, let us discuss EMP hazards:

Firstly, there never has been an EMP generated by a high altitude nuclear blast - not a single warhead detonated in space, ever - it's a theory with serious flaws in the physics. Nor are there "EMP Bombs" like the glowing devices seen on TV - sorry, but the physics just don't work. If you postulate a warhead larger than any ever constructed and detonate it in orbit, the chances are that you can damage 5% to 70% of vulnerable devices immediately underneath the fireball - meaning mostly plastic-cased mobile devices - your cell phone may not work, but your steel-bodied car certainly will.

If you were a terrorist with such a bomb, would you hang onto it until you also have orbital capability, or would you simply erase a major city?

Secondly, there have been multiple EMP events generated by CME's (Coronal Mass Ejections) from the Sun. The largest on record occurred in 1859. and destroyed (smoked) most of the telegraph equipment on the planet. These CMEs are actually quite common, but seldom strike the Earth - and in the rare instances where they do a tenuous plasma envelopes the Earth and the magnetic field around it, and induces huge currents in very long circuits like grid power lines. Electronic devices are likely not impacted unless plugged into grid power when the CME whipsaws the magnetosphere.

More likely than an asteroid strike, but not really that likely at all.

[ROCKMAN]

KJ - "I don't think it will take months to get the grid back up." Hmm...it's taken as long as that in some relatively small areas of the country when knocked out by a hurricane. And that's when the entire inventory of parts are available nationwide. I assume it will come down to how many small parts are damaged (like transformers) compared to control, facilities which might be repaired much faster. If "they" can knock out local infrastructure over a large area of the country similar to what hurricanes have done in the past it's easy to imagine many months passing before all the lights come back on. But again that assumes they could damage tens of thousands of transformers/relays in a single attack.

[Subjectivist]

Firstly, there never has been an EMP generated by a high altitude nuclear blast - not a single warhead detonated in space, ever - it's a theory with serious flaws in the physics. Nor are there "EMP Bombs" like the glowing devices seen on TV - sorry, but the physics just don't work. If you postulate a warhead larger than any ever constructed and detonate it in orbit, the chances are that you can damage 5% to 70% of vulnerable devices immediately underneath the fireball - meaning mostly plastic-cased mobile devices - your cell phone may not work, but your steel-bodied car certainly will.

If you were a terrorist with such a bomb, would you hang onto it until you also have orbital capability, or would you simply erase a major city?

Secondly, there have been multiple EMP events generated by CME's (Coronal Mass Ejections) from the Sun. The largest on record occurred in 1859. and destroyed (smoked) most of the telegraph equipment on the planet. These CMEs are actually quite common, but seldom strike the Earth - and in the rare instances where they do a tenuous plasma envelopes the Earth and the magnetic field around it, and induces huge currents in very long circuits like grid power lines. Electronic devices are likely not impacted unless plugged into grid power when the CME whipsaws the magnetosphere.

More likely than an asteroid strike, but not really that likely at all.

Incorrect, the USA conducted five tests and the USSR also did a test series.

The Starfish test was one of five high-altitude tests grouped together as Operation Fishbowl within the larger Operation Dominic, a series of tests in 1962 begun in response to the Soviet announcement on August 30, 1961 that they would end a three-year moratorium on testing.[2]

In 1958 the United States had completed six high-altitude nuclear tests, but the high-altitude tests of that year produced many unexpected results and raised many new questions. According to the U.S. Government Project Officer's Interim Report on the Starfish Prime project:

"Previous high-altitude nuclear tests: YUCCA, TEAK, and ORANGE, plus the three ARGUS shots were poorly instrumented and hastily executed. Despite thorough studies of the meager data, present models of these bursts are sketchy and tentative. These models are too uncertain to permit extrapolation to other altitudes and yields with any confidence. Thus there is a strong need, not only for better instrumentation, but for further tests covering a range of altitudes and yields."[3]

The Starfish test was originally planned as the second in the Fishbowl series, but the first launch (Bluegill) was lost by the radar tracking equipment and had to be destroyed in flight.

The initial Starfish launch attempt on June 20 was aborted in flight due to failure of the Thor launch vehicle. The Thor missile flew a normal trajectory for 59 seconds; then the rocket engine stopped, and the missile began to break apart. The range safety officer ordered the destruction of the missile and of the warhead. The missile was between 30,000 and 35,000 feet (9.1 and 10.7 km) in altitude when it was destroyed. Parts of the missile and some radioactive contamination fell upon Johnston Island and nearby Sand Island and the surrounding ocean.[4]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime

[Outcast_Searcher]

It does seem outrageous to me how badly prepared we are for a whole host of bad events hitting major utility services. A major electrical problem due to an EMP from a CME or other is one example. Exploding gas lines going uninspected, and our rotting aged water infrastructure are two others.

Since having a "reasonable" inventory of major electrical parts in some sort of Faraday cage warehouse in/near every major city is certainly an achievable goal, it could be done. The issue must be COST, as always. (People hate paying higher utility bills, of course).

To me, it would be fine to have our electical, water, gas, etc. bills be higher, as long as there were meaningful efforts made to have parts and obtainable labor resources (like contracts in place to borrow other cities' utility workers / repair trucks in the event of a serious event -- mutual contracts might make a lot of sense) - IF such an arrangement were made competently, honestly, and without a vast amount of overhead (aimed to make some government officials rich).

Unfortunately, most people don't want to pay much if anything to plan for emergencies, as they want to spend and borrow every cent they can lay their hands on NOW -- and, IMO, a lot of people rightfully don't have a lot of trust in government to competently and honestly handle such arrangements so the extra hit to the utility bills is really buying something (like far less electric down-time after an EMP pulse) worth the money spent.

Given human nature, I don't see this being fixed unless there are some truly huge and well publicized outages. Generally such bad events (like say a major water main breaks) are very local, so others assume "it can't happen here", even as the infrastructure continues to rot away only receiving emergency patches.