[onlooker]

Thought I would create a thread whereby posters can chime in as to what may occur in 2016. I would add please try and stay within the parameters of the Geo-political-Geo-economic-Geo-social matters. I limit it to 2016 as I think the planet is becoming more volatile and making further off predictions is pretty baseless. So here I go. I believe War will continue in the ME, the refugee problem will get even worse, oil prices will finally go higher, the World economic situation while not collapsing will continue to stagnate, more and more protests around the world (this one is pretty easy one to call), Hillary will probably win the Presidency, the climate system will continue to give us shock and awe especially in the Arctic. So all in all not necessarily something to look forward to. Just enjoy the present and let the chips fall where they may. So lets keep this thread up and running maybe throughout this coming year. Happy New Year to everyone.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I predict global economic growth will continue in 2016, as it has since spring of 2009.

I predict the fast-crash doomer echo chamber will continue to claim a global recession (or even depression) is underway, continuing to ignore the fact that words have precise meanings. For example, China having growth projected at sub 7% is still lots of growth, and consistent with the mainstream economists' projections (and history the past several years) with growth gradually slowing as China's economy gradually matures.

I predict further volatility in oil prices, but that the average price in 2016 won't go below $30, as the overall long term loss in production due to low prices demonstrates that supply/demand will indeed come back into balance, and investors realize that the price won't continue to spiral down.

I predict the US presidential race will be full of the usual empty promises, and that it doesn't matter who wins -- BAU politics with no real answers to the US debt bomb or providing meaningful educations to make a more internationally competitive workforce over time. Sadly, there is NO candidate which I can even get a little enthusiastic about.

I predict green sources of energy will continue to make slow progress, that the greenies will continue to claim green nirvana is coming "real soon now" and the AGW deniers will continue to claim that green energy is a disaster for the economy.

Speaking of AGW, I predict another warm year for 2016. If not a record warm year, I predict the denialists will reset the clock to 2015 and claim there is no AGW, just a one year cooling trend.

[GHung]

I'm going way out on a limb here and predicting that 2016 will be a lot like 2015, except for the political circus cranking up into high gear; Trump vs. Clinton may be more fun than Ren and Stimpy. Inertia will mean that change will continue to occur at a rate not likely to awaken the frogs in their pots, and the effects of lower oil/energy costs will still be trickling down through most of the year.

The Saudis have deep enough pockets to keep the lid on for now. The Putin/Obama chess match centered around ISIS will continue to be the disaster capitalists' primary game of choice, and Obama's pledge to get combat troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan will prove to have been hollow promises, though the MSM will largely continue to ignore how little has changed with over a decade of pissing away the prols' blood and treasure. That shit-stick will be passed on to yet another 'commander in chief'.

Barring some major black swan, the long slow train wreck of the industrial age will continue to play out, the biosphere will continue to degrade at greater rates, and the masses will become even more distracted and deluded.

[MonteQuest]

I will learn to play the banjo. Oops! Not Geo.

Debt and deflation may well rule the day. Gridlock will continue in Congress no matter who wins. The GOP will revolt if they don't win. Denial of reality will reach a fevered pitch. The terrorists will win the fear game.

[Lore]

I will learn to play the banjo. Oops! Not Geo.

Debt and deflation may well rule the day. Gridlock will continue in Congress no matter who wins. The GOP will revolt if they don't win. Denial of reality will reach a fevered pitch. The terrorists will win the fear game.

Terrorism never wins, it only holds court. Nature in the end abhors chaos.

[Shaved Monkey]

I imagine 2016 will be a bit like 2015 just a little further along the plateau.

[Pops]

It's been 7 years since the postponement of the of the Big Reset.

- Average business cycles peak to peak duration since WWII has been 68 month.
- Last peak was 12/07 so... 96 months?
- Last year oil, High Yield bonds, and commodities all crashed hard, just like '07.
- An estimated 70% of investors lost money last year, the only people who didn't lose held cash

just sayin...
.

[Cog]

Another recession is a likely event.

[onlooker]

Based upon what Pops is saying and others I will add another prediction. LTO is going to encounter big difficulties, investment will dry up and stricter risk aversion standards will contribute to that. All this appears to be already happening. We definitely seem to be in a deflationary cycle. Beginning of year I expect prices to remain low but come summer with the driving season expect demand to rise and move oil prices up.

[Tanada]

Nah, we will have sunshine and lollipops by day, rainbows and ice cream by night!

[MonteQuest]

Another recession is a likely event.

What's wrong with the one we got?