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Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 04 Feb 2016, 15:18:56

Image

European bank stocks are down almost 40% since NIRP were introduced in Europe.

Image

The contagion is spreading to US banks.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 19:55:58

http://monetarywatch.com/2016/02/im-in- ... nraveling/
Awe at how-fast-global-trade-is-unraveling/
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 20:02:29

onlooker wrote:http://monetarywatch.com/2016/02/im-in-awe-at-just-how-fast-global-trade-is-unraveling/
Awe at how-fast-global-trade-is-unraveling/


I shall not tell a lie on this occasion, the death of globalism makes me very happy, not sad.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 16 Feb 2016, 20:08:23

Yes globalization is the prime manifestation of the greed inherent in Capitalism and personified above all in elites who put profit above all else. On a more practical level though the end of globalization is also good because that way people may pay more heed to local resilience and local resources and they they are being used or abused.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby ennui2 » Wed 17 Feb 2016, 10:29:58

pstarr wrote:And for you anti-peakist, anti-doomer cornie/denialists. It appears our little itty bitty shale boom was too fast, too late and too little.


Well, gosh, by darnit. It looks like we have...a prediction!

How long should the center hold before you get called on this one? Six months? A year?
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby ennui2 » Wed 17 Feb 2016, 14:36:52

"I've probably said something similar for the last 6 months."

Then you're already guilty of bad calls and just think it's perfectly OK to keep issuing bad calls ad infinitum. Good one, assuming you don't mind looking clueless.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby careinke » Sat 20 Feb 2016, 04:45:51

pstarr wrote: Come back to me in a year and we'll chat, if you still have a job and an internet connection lol


You guys have jobs??? Boy, that must suck. 8O
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 20 Feb 2016, 08:59:24

They must, how else would they have the time to sit around and bash one another all day.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby Cog » Sat 20 Feb 2016, 09:34:32

Newfie wrote:They must, how else would they have the time to sit around and bash one another all day.


LOL
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 22 Feb 2016, 02:41:41

According to this image blog it has already started...

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=43347
Markets have corrected substantially since the beginning of the year as most of the gains of the past two years have been erased. According to Bloomberg, 40 out of the largest 63 markets have dropped over 20%. The image below shows the performance of markets word-wide since their most recent peaks. Most markets are in a bear market phase or are at best experiencing a strong correction. The world is red!

Where do global markets stand?

Image
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 22 Feb 2016, 09:54:30

Considering how unreal the inflation of the markets was based mostly on government actions rather than natural economic forces the whole world needs to have a bear market for 12-36 months just to undue the false gains imposed from above.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 25 Feb 2016, 20:39:07

IMF warns the global economy is 'highly vulnerable'

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said the global economy has weakened further and warned it was "highly vulnerable to adverse shocks".

It said the weakening had come "amid increasing financial turbulence and falling asset prices".

The IMF also noted any future prospects for global growth "could be derailed by market turbulence, the oil price crash and geopolitical conflicts".

http://www.imf.org/external/np/g20/pdf/2016/022616.pdf


Exports from China to Brazil collapse as recession deepens

Chinese exports to Brazil collapsed last month in the latest dramatic sign of the deepening recession in Latin America’s biggest economy.

Containerised exports from China to Brazil of goods ranging from automotives to textiles fell 60 per cent in January compared with a year earlier as the weak real limits Brazilians’ ability to buy imported goods, according to Maersk Line, the world’s largest shipping company. Total volume of containerised imports into Latin America’s biggest economy halved, data showed.

“What we are seeing right now from China is not only a phenomenon for Brazil, we are seeing the same all over Latin America, declining [Chinese export] volumes into all the markets,” said Antonio Dominguez, managing director for Maersk Line in Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina. “It has been going on for several quarters but is getting more evident as we move into [2016].”

“Whatever industry we take a look at in terms of imports into Brazil from Asia, it is on a downward trend,” said Nestor Amador, commercial director for Maersk Line in Brazil. “It seems rock bottom is yet to be hit.”


Brazil is junk - TDS

"Moody’s did the expected and finally became the third major rating agency to downgrade Brazil to junk status, with its decision to move Brazil to a Ba2 rating from a Baa3 rating. The ratings agency also affirmed the negative outlook, suggesting further steps down are likely. While this was a fairly well digested event by the market, that only led to temporary BRL weakness, the two-notch downgrade did send a strong message on the rate of deterioration in both the fiscal and political dimensions of the Brazilian economic landscape.

... The two-notch downgrade builds in the expectation of further fiscal and political deterioration, and the statement by Moody’s suggested little possibility of a reversal, and indeed the negative outlook suggests that the risk of further downgrades remains high.

We view Brazil as entrenched in a deep fiscal-political quagmire until the impeachment process can come to completion.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 25 Feb 2016, 21:35:13

Tanada wrote:Considering how unreal the inflation of the markets was based mostly on government actions rather than natural economic forces the whole world needs to have a bear market for 12-36 months just to undue the false gains imposed from above.

The problem with that is I think TPTB now may think that they're is no way to start a bullish market once again (no more bubbles to inflate) and also because at this point the only thing that seems to be keeping this world-wide economy afloat is some confidence. Without this confidence it feels like the whole house of cards will just collapse without any assurance that it can be restored again.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 26 Feb 2016, 20:27:27

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... own-stores
Well in the US, I think it has definitely begun.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 27 Feb 2016, 08:44:23

onlooker wrote:http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/economic-recovery-13-of-the-biggest-retailers-in-america-are-closing-down-stores
Well in the US, I think it has definitely begun.

Those are bricks & morter stores, don't forget that online shopping has and is still booming.
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 27 Feb 2016, 13:59:02

Perhaps more significant, then:


http://mishtalk.com/2016/02/26/world-tr ... lar-terms/

The value of goods crossing international borders plunged 13.8% in 2015 according to the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis’s World Trade Monitor.

Much of the slump was due to a slowdown in China and other emerging economies.

The start of 2016 sports a similar pattern....
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 27 Feb 2016, 14:17:04

dolanbaker wrote:
onlooker wrote:http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/economic-recovery-13-of-the-biggest-retailers-in-america-are-closing-down-stores
Well in the US, I think it has definitely begun.

Those are bricks & morter stores, don't forget that online shopping has and is still booming.

According to this the boom in online shopping is actually a myth.
http://www.trueship.com/blog/2015/06/24 ... tHmrdCph9w
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Re: Has the Great Contraction Begun?

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 27 Feb 2016, 20:53:22

You're REALLY not good at appealing to authority. It takes more than a quick google search to find a piece of supporting evidence. I mean, come on, that's a fluff blog piece meant to support an online business.
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