[Shaved Monkey]

This the headline of the main broadsheet today.
If that doesnt scare the horses I dont know what will
New financial crash 'certain', says former Bank of England governor Mervyn King

Another financial crisis is "certain" and will come "sooner rather than later", the former Bank of England governor has warned.

Mervyn King, who headed the bank between 2003 and 2013, believes the world economy will soon face another crash as regulators have failed to reform banking.

http://www.theage.com.au/world/new-fina ... n5pph.html

[dolanbaker]

The next potential crisis is also being used to scare UK voters in the Brexit referendum.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu- ... m-35677385
Finance ministers from the world's leading economies have warned of a "shock" to the global economy if the UK leaves the EU.

The ministers gave their opinion in a statement released at the end of a two-day meeting of G20 nations in China.

Chancellor George Osborne, who is at the event, told the BBC the referendum issue was "deadly serious".

But former Chancellor Lord Lawson said the G20's warning was "absurd" because 15 of its members were outside the EU.

Asked if he or his officials had asked for the warning to be included in the statement, Mr Osborne said: "We've got countries around the table like the United States of America, like the IMF, like the Chinese who frankly don't do what anyone tells them to do."

However, Lord Lawson told the BBC: "The British people will not take kindly to being told by the G20 what they should do. And the notion that the UK leaving the EU would cause an economic shock is absurd.

[ennui2]

Not quite yet.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-s ... SKCN0W34HI

[onlooker]

The NY Stock Market going up may be a bad sign. The luring of the suckers before the crash. Kind of like how in a Tsunami the water recedes before the big wave. Besides the fools, manipulators and wheelers and dealers on the stock market floor are out of touch with reality, they are in the business of selling, selling hopium to buyers of hopium. Even while general contraction dynamics continue for most economies around the world, Wall St. continues to exude confidence. HO HUM.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Not quite yet.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-s ... SKCN0W34HI

In your very own words another Appeal to Authority without comment, content, or text. Violation of the COC.

Which general-beat hack penned this crap? Hum? Does he work for the advertisers? Who ulimately pays his salary? The automobile advertisers? The insurance company advertisers? Does a one-day surge in the American stock market really tell a story of the global economy? Is your post nothing more than a childish and rhetorical stick in the eye?

Geez pstarr. That little rant of yours sounds pretty sulky, and a bit panicky. Why does a little good economic news scare you so if you have such faith in your short term economic doom scenario?

Aside from the opinion that there is "virtually no chance" we're going to have a recession, the article consists simply of factual statistics, it appears to me. And the article talks about the month of Feb. and the month of Jan. trends, not just today.

Also, it appears that the strength of the market has to do with US factory production looking more upbeat, implying stronger consumer spending, per Bloomberg. Also per Bloomberg, the snapback rally the last two weeks of Feb. correlates very well with signs of a strong stock market in coming months, which of course may or may not work out this time around.

It's kind of sad when the pessismists constantly crow over bad news to the extent they often feel free to make stuff up, exaggerate things, etc. but a similar piece of good news is treated as lies, conspiracy, causes hurt feelings, etc. (Reuters isn't exactly known to be a shabby, distorting news source).

Good luck trying to objectively evaluate big picture trends like US fracking and what it means to global energy prices, geopolitics, US and global economic trends, etc. over the next few years or so if the zerohedge style doom and paranoia mask distorts every piece of data folks in your camp look at. But that's right, objectivity gets in the way of the short term peak oil implies doom no matter what meme.

[ennui2]

Which general-beat hack penned this crap?

PStarr translation: I don't like the message so I must shoot the messenger.

It's Reuters, not Zerohedge. It's a reasonable appeal to authority.

What Outcast_Searcher just said about bias is right on the money, too.

There is a profound lack of reflection on the part of doomers to how they spin the news. Anything negative is treated as a "sign" of doom. Anything positive is shrugged off for one reason or another. It's this lock-step group-think. I understand people have a profound need for simplicity. Black and white. But the world is not that cut and dried. It's shades of gray.

As far as I'm concerned there needs to be a devil's advocate here because there is no true objectivity whatsoever, which will, unchecked, lead people to have absolutely no ability to tease out what's likely to happen next.

I mean, what do you people really want? Do you want to try to understand where we are or do you want to buttress and protect your own favored apocalyptic narratives?

The future will suck enough as it is without needing to be embellished by people's biases. All you have to do is just show a little more patience.

[Outcast_Searcher]

ennui I see no economic analysis, no defense of the Reuters and an unfounded attack on Zerohedge? Is that an intelligent response? Or a troll?

The rest is a hodgepodge of redirection. blather and arm-chair psychoanalysis.

You need to look in the mirror while saying that. Especially the part about no economic analysis.

For you, any economic news which is positive is "bad". And of course bad news is good. Is what what you consider "analysis"?

I have pointed out repeatedly how illogical your claim is that oil is unaffordable now at roughly a third of the price it was clearly affordable at from roughly 2010-2014. And that in both cases, the global economy was growing slowly (despite claims by folks like you that we are in a global recession). I would call that simple economic analysis, which you have no reasonable economic argument for, except to endlessly repeat that the world can't afford oil (apparently at ANY price).

If name-calling is all you have, fine. Don't expect the adults in the room to be impressed.

And if you think I'm the only one who disagrees with the constant paranoia and incorrect doom-in-our-face calls of zerohedge, you're dead wrong.

Here's a recent example on a topic the doomers love to tout, ignoring the evidence to the contrary (of course):

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3810246 ... dex-plunge

[Cog]

Zerohedge predicts doom everyday. Using them as a source with any sort of predictive ability is foolish.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Oh by the way: regarding your signature? It's not a glut.



I could prove same causative-correlation for a dozen . . . no one hundred countries worldwide. In each case the collapsing economy is a consequence of high oil prices and continued oil demand destruction.

Except that you're 100% wrong.

A weak economy doesn't consume as much energy. That's why oil prices collapsed in the face of a deep global recession (and fears of a possible global depression) during the worst of the 2008-2009 collapse.

So Greece when it was in trouble, or any of the 100 other examples you'd care to give have weak economies decreasing consumption, not some mythical "truth" that they suddenly can't afford oil at about a THIRD of the price it was for several years (when the globe afforded it just fine, and the global economy continued to grow) before the recent price dive.

One of the biggest worries analysts now have about oil is the possibility of storage filling, and a resultant price crash and production crash. Why isn't that a glut? Having too much is a glut.

A glut is defined as "an excessively abundant supply of something". Not that pstarr thinks people can't afford it at any price.

[vox_mundi]

Citigroup: Prospect of a global ‘recession’ is getting stronger

The risk of a global recession has risen, Citigroup says, as advanced economies such as the U.S. and eurozone show signs of sputtering.

The bank’s analysts have cut their global growth forecast for 2016 to 2.5%, where just in January they pegged it at 2.7%. In the middle of 2015, they predicted growth of 3.4%.

“Allowing for probable mismeasurement in China’s GDP data, ‘genuine’ global growth in 2016 probably will be barely above 2% year-on-year,” the analysts said.

In fact, that reading could even slide below 2%, if the economic weakness seen around the world persists, Citi said, raising the possibility of a recession in 2016. That’s if you define “recession” as growth below 2%, as Citi does; the more common definition is two straight quarters of contraction in gross domestic product.

[dolanbaker]

Brazil's going (further)south!

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35715317
Brazil's GDP fared worse than almost any other major economy in 2015, contracting by 3.8%, according to the national statistics agency IBGE.

Economic growth in the world's seventh-largest economy has fallen sharply in recent months.

This was due partly to low commodity prices and sluggish global growth.

But political paralysis has hampered Brazil's efforts to tackle its economic problems, including a budget deficit that has reached 10.8% of GDP.

President Dilma Rousseff is trying to head off the opposition's efforts to impeach her over alleged accounting irregularities, which means she cannot afford to alienate supporters in her Workers' Party by cutting spending or raising taxes.

Investigations are also continuing into a high-level bribery and corruption scandal involving major construction projects. Ms Rousseff's predecessor as president, fellow Workers' Party politician Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, is one of the people under investigation.

Another bric falling out of the wall

[Lore]

The high price of oil will not stop humans from burning every other high carbon producing substance on the planet.

[Lore]

The high price of oil will not stop humans from burning every other high carbon producing substance on the planet.

Lore Haiti is counter-evidence to your claim, and the Dominican Republic is an exception in the Caribbean, the rest is stripped clean. The European countries have been stripped clean. As has the Middle East, Asia, Africa. The British Isles are bare. The US is sort of an exception but we do depend on heavy machinery to get into our distant forests. The easy-to-reach coal is gone. Most of the planet has already burned the easy to reach carbon assets.

Well that's because you live in California. Here in Michigan we still have forests and according to Mitt Romney the trees are just the right height.

[onlooker]

http://www.economic-undertow.com/2016/0 ... s-revenge/
Good article on debt and deflation and the mounting pressures of these. Price discovery and correction is part of what is causing deflation. Another is weak demand. Debt overload exacerbating all this as debt cannot be serviced and defaults becoming more common leading to further devaluation. The final reason is it is dawning on everyone that this is more or less a permanent situation, that limits to growth have been reached and thus reflexively lending will dwindle and economic activity will falter leading to even more deflation. Then at some point as people seek liquidity to salvage investments, prices will rise commensurately. Also prices will rise due to actual resource shortages. Then, we will be left with Stagflation.

[onlooker]

http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/black-swans-economy/
http://www.infowars.com/plunging-manufa ... l-economy/
Two articles on problems with US and the World economy