[sjn]

Is that a systemic contraction (fundamental) or a political event (cyclical) though? We will never know with energy (as that is the basis of much of how we pontificate here) as that sector is a mystery reserves wise. We can trying looking at objective price but who is going to or is able and willing to?

So in the final analysis it is my speculation versus yours. That said, there is clearly energy capacity in the system with fracking and shale so I think it is reasonable to assume that we are in another cycle.

Assuming fracking and shale actually produce significant usable net-energy, rather than just Entropy in the form of atmospheric Methane plumes, Earthquakes and toxified aquifers.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I was responding to the cost reduction, rather than the volume drop.
Farmers are not going to produce more than they can sell, otherwise it goes to waste,

So in those last two years (2014--2105) that agriculture production dropped, the planet added 160 million people. Yet demand/supply is down because fuel is cheap? Folks, do we see a problem yet? No. oh well.

But when it's ALL bad all the time, you lose credibility. If prices were up, that would be a sign of doom (as was commonly discussed a couple of years-ish ago on this site). The talk would be of widespread starvation since food is unaffordable, etc.

The simple point is is the cost of transportation is down due to cheap energy, that's good for the global economy. But I know - that's way too optimistic and obvious a point to let stand, so you need to find a way to preach doom.

Have at it. Just don't expect objective folks to be impressed.

Now, if we have widespread and lasting stories about meaningful shortages of food, then you may have a point. OTOH, we'd see food futures prices sharply rising in reaction.

I just looked at futures charts for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hogs. What I see is a consistent pattern of relatively depressed futures prices -- apparently the investment world does NOT see any sort of food supply crisis, at least in the short term.

But let me guess. The MSM makes all the futures numbers up if they disagree with your intuition, right?

[americandream]

Is that a systemic contraction (fundamental) or a political event (cyclical) though? We will never know with energy (as that is the basis of much of how we pontificate here) as that sector is a mystery reserves wise. We can trying looking at objective price but who is going to or is able and willing to?

What kind of cyclical (or otherwise) political event do you have in mind that would explain a simultaneous contraction in food prices and production at the same time that human population growth and demand is increasing?

So in the final analysis it is my speculation versus yours. That said, there is clearly energy capacity in the system with fracking and shale so I think it is reasonable to assume that we are in another cycle.

Energy capacity (otherwise known as reserves) have collapsed at $40/barrel. And shale production is down.

I am not going to argue with you. I only want facts. I can analyse the markets using numbers, numbers that are measurable and drive price. What do you have? Where are your numbers for reserves...I mean pure calculation, not somebodies best guess. Nobody knows what the Saudi reserves are and that is my point. With these stonge age clowns holding the keys to our global energy needs, all we can do at best is surmise. But we know that non conventional oil has spooked the Saudis and they want them gone. Why? As non conventionals render the Saudis surplus to needs and removeable. The Russians know this, are as much pawns in all of this as are we, and this skewed market sends out just the sort of signals the Saudis want to breed fear and dependence.

As for commodity collapse, especially in the food sector, just how hard is it to work out that removing big commodity importers such as Libya and Iraq (both of which are close to failed nation status) is going to have ripple effect.

In a nutshell, we have no real idea as to what is going on and Trump is correct. We need to take stock. But it is evident that the Saudis are skewing the global market with their mischief making if the fate of shale is anything to go by. Does that mean that shale is too costly and needs to be taken out. Who is to say as we have no idea what reserves are. Thus in the meantime, given that we are driving blind in traffic that shares the road with a bunch of stone age gangsters, insurance would seem sensible and timely, even if mothballed for the duration.

[americandream]

Trump is correct.

Your pseudo marxist bull twaddle has proven to be just that (bulltwaddle), and so you fall back on Trump?

Feckin'A, now I have seen everything lol

I want your numbers. Show me your numbers. Otherwise it is all speculation. And as this speculation stands as I am not prepared to show my numbers which make me lots of lolly, I say that the glut is all about monopoly and commodity failures that are traceable back to failed states in the ME...unlike your it all gonna end dooooom which I have been hearing for yonks.

I would be embarrassed with this silly fixation. And yes, if Trump can rid us of this dysfunctional relationship, then why not. No one else seems willing to apart from Sanders and Clinton has stitched the vote up in there.

[americandream]

Shipping is grinding to a halt, no one is buying oil.......ahhhhhhh...its the end of the world. Never mind that the merry go round has a few shonky but repairable holes in it.....nah....I have to have my doooooooommmmmmmmm!!!!

[americandream]

Shipping is grinding to a halt, no one is buying oil.......ahhhhhhh...its the end of the world. Never mind that the merry go round has a few shonky but repairable holes in it.....nah....I have to have my doooooooommmmmmmmm!!!!

You sound less and less like a marxist and more and more like Cog, the hysterical Republican twat.

Anyway you asked for the data:
http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/
Argue with them. Stop wasting my time. Please lol

It is up to you to bring the analysis to me. I did with you.

It is widely reported that the glut is a Saudi ruse to unseat shale.

On the commodities front, leading food exporter NZ is experiencing market loss with the ME failed states scenario and is something of a canary. Follow that through to the pockets of food commodities world wide and the leakage starts there and ripples out to other players in the global network, China for one and shipping numbers.

There is nothing that suggests that any of these numbers are in terminal territory....certainly not oil which is a monopoly play and one that suggests that we have enough reserves for the foreseeable future no matter what.

You need to be fast if you want to play in this game. Tedious screeds of stuff don't work in the fast moving global market.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I was responding to the cost reduction, rather than the volume drop.
Farmers are not going to produce more than they can sell, otherwise it goes to waste,

So in those last two years (2014--2105) that agriculture production dropped, the planet added 160 million people. Yet demand/supply is down because fuel is cheap? Folks, do we see a problem yet? No. oh well.

But when it's ALL bad all the time, you lose credibility. If prices were up, that would be a sign of doom (as was commonly discussed a couple of years-ish ago on this site). The talk would be of widespread starvation since food is unaffordable, etc.

The simple point is is the cost of transportation is down due to cheap energy, that's good for the global economy. But I know - that's way too optimistic and obvious a point to let stand, so you need to find a way to preach doom.

Have at it. Just don't expect objective folks to be impressed.

Now, if we have widespread and lasting stories about meaningful shortages of food, then you may have a point. OTOH, we'd see food futures prices sharply rising in reaction.

I just looked at futures charts for corn, wheat, soybeans, cattle, and hogs. What I see is a consistent pattern of relatively depressed futures prices -- apparently the investment world does NOT see any sort of food supply crisis, at least in the short term.

But let me guess. The MSM makes all the futures numbers up if they disagree with your intuition, right?

This is not objective, is it an angry tirade of a frustrated child. Sounds like your mentor Donald Trump lol

So either talk like an adult or go take a walk. I am not going anywhere

Right. If you're afraid to talk about objective data like an adult, always hurl insults and name calling. Unfortunately, that won't work on me. Have you NO objective data, logic, or meaningful argument to make for your case?

[dohboi]

I can't even figure out what the various positions are of people on the here any more.

But I noticed this on PO News: International Rig Count Still Falling

http://peakoil.com/production/internati ... -falling-2

[americandream]

I can't even figure out what the various positions are of people on the here any more.

But I noticed this on PO News: International Rig Count Still Falling

http://peakoil.com/production/internati ... -falling-2

There is a great deal of fear and alarm on here, some posing as anti-capitalist (on the assumption that capitalism is something nasty invented in mommy's basement somewhere and everything that preceded it was as nature intended us to be....why nature would bother with tooling us up to think in that instance seems rather baffling) but completely reactionary.

And challenge to that bourgeoisie orthodoxy shows this place up to be what it is. Everything it purports to look down on. But debate goes on and that is the basis of social change and always has been, even under the glare of rank reaction.

And I have always maintained, until price tells me otherwise, one can only at best make an informed guess about the state of the worlds energy reserves. Right from way back over 10 years ago when I joined. I called PO hasty then and I remain so.

[dolanbaker]

Yes the article made no mention of falling food production. But I did. I looked it up.

Dolan, do we live in a different universe? Or do you not read what was written? Prices are down, production is down, oil is down but there are more people to feed.

This doesn't make sense unless you are willing to grasp what a general contraction really is. It is the opposite of an inflation. Prices go down, money and credit disappear and people go hungry.

Prices are down, production is down, but stocks are high.
It appears to me that producers have simply decided to produce less to avoid a price collapse due to lack of demand.

[ennui2]

I can't even figure out what the various positions are of people on the here any more.

I'm not sure there are any anymore. It's just people taking personal pot-shots at other posters.

[dohboi]

"stocks will plummet"

That sounds like the beginnings of a prediction, one I am sure will come true at some point. Do you care to add a time frame and a number to 'plummet'?

"producers have simply decided to produce less to avoid a price collapse due to lack of demand"

That certainly sounds like a prescription for deflation. Is that your take. Care to predict when that will start to happen in earnest, and how far it will go and how fast?

If people could stay away from personal attacks (something I am not entirely immune from ), and just make specific claims and their reasons behind them, we could perhaps get somewhere interesting. If the predictions are on a short enough time frame, some people will perhaps get to crow about their prescience...

[dolanbaker]

DB, yes I think that there is a real risk of deflation, but that is more to do with the drop in commodity prices in general. Pulling back on production of stuff (in this case Cereals) is one way to snuff out a deflationary cycle. If the supply is tight, the demand will remain high enough to support higher prices.

When stocks drop enough, they'll just ramp up production again, but at a significantly higher price (just like oil).
Difficult to predict when prices will rise again, wait until harvest season, we'll have a better idea then, one really bad year and the price will be up before Christmas!

As far as "The Great Contraction" is concerned, I think we're still bumping along the ceiling of the limits to growth and will continue to do so until the amount of energy (from whatever source) required for "growth" starts to decline.