[C8]

Just curious- with all the discussion about PO here, whether it will happen, how fast, etc. I wondered what people actually desired. Do you want Peak Oil to happen? I realize many will say its already happening, and this is true, but not in the dramatic way as envisioned 5 years ago. For the sake of this discussion, I will qualify Peak Oil to mean world supplies to start declining rapidly soon. Do you want this?

I will answer first, I very reluctantly say "yes" and this is because I am very concerned about global CO2 emissions. My kids can live through PO, I am not so sure about AGW. Now I am sure some will say "PO will just cause more coal and dirtier fuels to be burnt so its bad for climate change". My view is that everything is going to be burnt anyway- people are just demanding more energy every day. The fracking, arctic, new drilling, Iraq, oil revolution will not slow down the amount of coal burnt- people just want more!

I do not see slow PO as buying more time for a renewable future, people and governments are going to put off renewables as long as there are carbons in the ground. There is something about the whole electric, renewable future that seems to strange for most average people to embrace (as witnessed by the very slow adoption of electric cars, solar, etc. on a personal consumer scale)- we feel comfortable with our fossil fuels. Comfort rules.

As a personal note- I have two elementary aged boys that will be able to get driver's licenses in 10 years. The whole car scene with massive insurance, accidents, wasted time, breakdowns, etc. just seems crazy to me and I hope I can avoid it with them. I realize that PO will bring great hardships- but those are coming anyway and I really want to avoid runaway global warming.

In any case what's your personal position?

[Beery1]

Yes, of course I want it to happen - and the sooner and harsher the better. In my opinion, anyone who doesn't want it to happen has a death wish for the human race. Our only way forward as a species is if we reduce our emissions of global pollutants now, but we are not capable of doing this voluntarily. Peak oil and the collapse that follows are the only way I see out of the mess we've gotten ourselves into.

[Pops]

It's a good question. Not matter of want to, since it is inevitable, maybe more of a question of 'Do I want to be around to see it?'

I'm neither a "I'd rather just commit suicide" or a "Humans are a scourge on nature" sort but I'm not a hard core survivalist either. I am 56, I grew up in California, in the town that inspired American Graffiti in fact, I own 2 V8 4x4 pickups, I'm kind of a hippy of the "shotgun, rifle and a 4 wheel drive, a country boy can survive" sort. IOW I'm pretty well old school motorhead.

I don't think I'm a misanthrope, maybe more of an armchair Luddite. Having said that I've always been an early adopter of technology so go figure. I live on a small farm but make money doing print graphics via the internet - desktop publishing was one of the first "stocking looms" of the computer age, having long since displaced many many skill craftsmen of the printing trades.

I guess I enjoy trying to understand the science and social impact of peak oil more than I want it to happen. I hope the top will be a gradual rollover from the current demand shortfall to get us set for actual decline. I mean currently the "increase" in production is far less than predicted just a decade ago so the effects are already with us. This will be as consequential a period in human history as any before, we can wipe ourselves and most everything else out or we can turn some kind of corner. Watching how it happens is pretty interesting, I've spent a lot of time on it.

I'd like to make it to 2035 (since that year has some relevance in current forecasts) to get a glimpse of how we might handle it - if that counts as "want to".

.

[cipi604]

You live it. This is it.

[Plantagenet]

I don't WANT peak oil to happen, but its inevitable that global oil production is going to peak. In fact, if you look just at "conventional" oil production, its peaking right now----we've either been on a bumpy production plateau since 2005 or production is growing so slowly that its insignificant.

The real economic meltdown will occur when global oil production starts to decrease. Its coming and it isn't gonna be pretty.


Decreases in global oil production are coming

[C8]

Thanks for the replies- its sort of a weird question since we see it as inevitable. I do want to add two points:

1. I think it is entirely possible to know you want something and yet be completely objective about the facts- in fact, understanding your desires openly helps you discount biases you may have. The worst biases are the ones we are not aware of.

2. It is hard to say "I want Peak Oil" because we know its going to be so awful. Intellectually, I understand that global warming is going to be even worse, yet that doesn't make me feel like I actually "want" PO. Its like saying I want my leg amputated so I can survive- but nobody really wants their leg amputated. I am not a survivalist at all- I love the comforts of suburbia!!! But, after years of study of natural systems and world history, I am all too familiar with how fragile our agriculturally based civilization is.

Unfortunately, I don't see PO happening soon in any dramatic fashion.

[dolanbaker]

Peak oil dynamics have been in action since the 1970s, just imagine what our oil consumption would be like if we had continued to build houses the same way that we did at the start of the 70s, big uninsulated buildings with single glazed windows and large powerful oil fired boilers!
Cars with an average fuel consumption of 15 mpg or less etc.

Peak oil would be history and we'd now be in a bad place.

[Tanada]

It is a conundrum.

I don't want to suffer the effects of Peak Oil, nor do I want the massive die off of humanity that is likely IMO to ensue from it.

On the other hand I firmly believe that growth at any cost business as usual is a homo sapiens suicide plan so I want to see it ended as quickly as possible.

On the Gripping hand, most importantly I want to be right!!!!!!! Peak Oil is here!

[ROCKMAN]

C8 - A good question. An uncomfortable question. Even more uncomfortable answers. A couple of uncomfortable views: "My kids can live through PO". Are you sure? Hundreds of thousands (troops, civilians, children) have been killed in the military conflicts over the last two decades in oil producing regions. And if your kids do live thru PO what will their lives be like? Today hundreds of millions live rather desperate lives due to the lack of affordable energy...will PO improve their lives...the lives of your kids?

And then the most uncomfortable question: how will the world respond to a very impactful PO? Let's just focus on one inevitable response IMHO: increased coal consumption. We all know about the Chinese expansion of coal burning power plants. Now envision in X years as PO starts to really negatively affect the developed economies: do you not see the US, England, etc, etc. building more coal-fired plants? Relaxing environmental standards? I'm sure this isn't the vision many Americans have. A PO world many envision has no chance of developing IMHO. They see the benefits and ignore the degree of negative responses that are likely to happen.

It’s worn out but has to be said: Be careful what you wish for…you might get it.

[AgentR11]

Well... its a math thing, its a finite object, being reduced by some greater than zero rate function, thus, there exists a maximal rate at some point in time. That point is "peak oil". I'm not of a mind to apply "want" type emotions to mathematical certainties. The real questions are about the effects of reaching a maximal rate. Do I want society, banking, markets to go splat when confronted with a resource flow restriction greater than its inherent quest for efficiency? Absolutely not. Do I want the valuation of that finite, stored energy to more accurately reflect its usefulness in terms of offset human labor? Passionately yes. (Do I want the government to get that money? NOPE! )

TLDR:
Crash: No.
Market enforced efficiency: Yes.

nb Peak Oil is insufficient to prevent or even moderate global climate change. It all gets burned, its only a question of economic valuation of the resource.

[Tanada]

And then the most uncomfortable question: how will the world respond to a very impactful PO? Let's just focus on one inevitable response IMHO: increased coal consumption. We all know about the Chinese expansion of coal burning power plants. Now envision in X years as PO starts to really negatively affect the developed economies: do you not see the US, England, etc, etc. building more coal-fired plants? Relaxing environmental standards? I'm sure this isn't the vision many Americans have. A PO world many envision has no chance of developing IMHO. They see the benefits and ignore the degree of negative responses that are likely to happen.

As a closet environmentalist back when I first joined this bbs in April 2005 I advocated that ANWR and everywhere else should be drilled as soon as practical to protect the environment. My reasoning was simple then and still simple now, Environmental laws are in place and are to a large extent enforced in the USA to limit environmental damage from resource extraction. After the peak has been officially passed and people are desperate to get more oil at any cost IMO the environmental laws will be either suspended officially or just not enforced in order to increase extraction rates as much as possible.

Drill now drill everywhere will therefore cause less permanent damage to the environment than oppose all drilling until you get run over by the BAU crowd once Peak is obvious to the average voter. It won't be long before cry's against Greenpeace and other environmental organizations (those rotten greeny so and so's who are keeping us from our oil!!!!) begin once production declines start biting hard on the voters.

[ROCKMAN]

Tanada – A valid point of view with one exception IMHO: environment damage from extraction. There have certainly been blunders in the past and some more in the future. But compared to environmental damage from CONSUMING oil/NG the damage from EXTRACTING oil/NG is much less. Obviously they are linked. But I see much greater potential for increased environmental degradation from relaxed regs on the power generation side of the equation than the extraction side.

Despite what some here think the govt regs really aren’t inhibiting our extraction efforts to a significant degree. IMHO if all the US regs had been suspended 5 or 10 years ago we wouldn’t be producing much more than we are today. Maybe I’m unique but in 38 years there has not been one reg that stopped me from drilling any well I wanted. And consider all the hype about the regs holding back US coal production because of its environmental price tag. US coal production has increased 25% in the last 3 decades and is showing a steady growth especially in how much more we are now exporting. Cheap NG has slowed it up some but that won't last as NG price incease...as they have been doing recently.

[C8]

C8 - A good question. An uncomfortable question. Even more uncomfortable answers. A couple of uncomfortable views: "My kids can live through PO". Are you sure? Hundreds of thousands (troops, civilians, children) have been killed in the military conflicts over the last two decades in oil producing regions. And if your kids do live thru PO what will their lives be like? Today hundreds of millions live rather desperate lives due to the lack of affordable energy...will PO improve their lives...the lives of your kids?

And then the most uncomfortable question: how will the world respond to a very impactful PO? Let's just focus on one inevitable response IMHO: increased coal consumption. We all know about the Chinese expansion of coal burning power plants. Now envision in X years as PO starts to really negatively affect the developed economies: do you not see the US, England, etc, etc. building more coal-fired plants? Relaxing environmental standards? I'm sure this isn't the vision many Americans have. A PO world many envision has no chance of developing IMHO. They see the benefits and ignore the degree of negative responses that are likely to happen.

It’s worn out but has to be said: Be careful what you wish for…you might get it.

I am not confident of my kids surviving jumping off the neighbors' playhouse the way they do! But I do think living in the USA gives them a lot better chance than most (military, energy supplies, food, island isolation). Listen, I realize that a dramatic oil decent will lead to some death and suffering, but global warming is already killing thousands every year- and if the climate necessary for stable agriculture fails then were talking over 95% of the human race- those are people too. And what about all the animal species we are wiping out?

Also, I think if a PO develops in a dramatic fashion we will finally see a war type commitment to renewables and - most importantly- massive conservation. The amount of fat in US energy use is enormous. I think we could easily cut our energy use in half within a decade and not be that much worse off.

My only hope was that an extended PO would allow time for research to bring down the costs of renewables to make them more competitive and allow a smooth energy transmission. But what I am seeing is that even if that happens, people are still just going to burn everything because they always want MORE energy in ALL forms. There is no transition going on- its just more of EVERYTHING.

[ROCKMAN]

C8 - "...but global warming is already killing thousands every year". And the lack of affordable energy is probably killing tens if not hundreds of thousands around the world every year. That doesn’t include the millions living less then pleasant lives. I agree with you that US children won’t likely suffer at the level of the global population from PO. But neither will they from AGW. Most Americans haven’t seen much of the world outside our borders. And many of those that have didn’t visit the hell holes some of us have. The horrors of a society suffering severely from an energy deficiency isn’t an abstract concept for everyone.

Not to be too morbid but it’s my sincere hope that your lads are never conscripted in military service to help defend “our oil” in those foreign lands where it happens to exist. Some of us have very distinct memories of the draft…many younger types don’t. Some of us trust the govt to make wise decisions…some of us don’t. IMHO we don’t need any more black walls. Especially one with the names of 33,000 eighteen year olds scratched on it. What years do your lads turn 18?

[Beery1]

And then the most uncomfortable question: how will the world respond to a very impactful PO? Let's just focus on one inevitable response IMHO: increased coal consumption. We all know about the Chinese expansion of coal burning power plants. Now envision in X years as PO starts to really negatively affect the developed economies: do you not see the US, England, etc, etc. building more coal-fired plants? Relaxing environmental standards?

Of course, but this will happen anyway, in every likely scenario. This is why it's important that the peak happens sooner rather than later. We are going to burn everything we can - that's who we are - if it can be burned, we'll burn whatever's cheapest to burn - and that will eventually mean coal. But even coal can't last forever. I'm just hoping there's little enough to burn so that the worst possibilities of climate change are averted - or at least so that the Earth has a good long period after the age of fossil fuels so that it can recover its equilibrium.

[diemos]

Be of good cheer C8.

1000 years from now there will still be humans living on earth. Probably a very different earth and a very different civilization, but everything humanity is going to go through in the next 100 years will just be a paragraph in the history books.

[Arthur75]

It's right now, already some years(decades) back per capita, precise date doesn't matter at all, and willpower or not is outside of it as well.

[Ibon]

I can't help but add my two cents but my tag line below says it all. I am 55 years old (Pop's is the patriarch here!) and since I was in my young 20's wandering wilderness areas in North America I have been concerned primarily with the preservation of biodiversity on the Planet. To the extent I put this at the same level of importance as the well being of my species I am perhaps accurately labeled misanthropic. Except of course that there is no difference and this is a false dichotomy.

I have always wanted Peak OIl to happen because without the consequences of external limits we will never evolve culturally to stay within carrying capacity. We require this as a species.

For those of you lucky enough to have really spent time in unspoiled habitats and have witnessed the integrity of the ecology of such places you will fully understand my sentiment. For those whose life unfolds never given this opportunity or choosing to stay only within the constructs of human civilization you have my full sympathies.

[C8]

What years do your lads turn 18?

That would be 2021 and 2023.I am actually more concerned about them getting a drivers license and driving and/or riding is some other teen's car than military. The stats on teen accidents are crazy- I was hoping PO would hit so hard by then that I would just be buying them bus tickets- damn Eagle Ford and all those crazy frackers! (Hey, that even sounds like cussing!)

I do get your point though, its just I feel a little more confident in getting them into a non-combat position than teaching them how to grow corn in an epic drought with 100 plus temps.

[SilentRunning]

i am certain that Peak Oil will happen. What I want is for humanity to see it coming and react to it rationally.

The rational way to deal with it would have been a global one child policy starting in the 1970s, crash programs to get us off of fossil fuels, etc.

But I know that humans are largely irrational, and are prone to being persuaded by vested interests.

As a result, I suspect we are going to crash and burn. It's not what I want, but it is what I expect.