[onlooker]

Thought I would create this post to gauge the pulse of doom currently here. Recently a topic was created relating to how we all viewed each other in terms of how doomerish or not we are. Well as a compliment to that topic, I create this one to ascertain what doom people are really focused on if any and how soon they expect such doom to arrive in their area. Europe, North America and anywhere else people are posting from all have somewhat different problems besetting them. I will start as a resident of upstate NY-USA. Well, I am monitoring economic upheaval as I see this as the most likely first real significant interruption in the way of life in the US for the most part. I expect a real downsizing of our economic standard of living and in fact it is already happening in many parts of the US. I realize in California they are already going through some environmental problems so it will not be a uniform outcome throughout this country. So lets hear folks what are the most pressing perils you feel are headed your way or already at your doorstep?

[DesuMaiden]

The truth is people have been living without oil consumption for millennia. Chill out. The age of oil isn't going to happen overnight. It will be a long, drawn out process. The truth is nobody can predict an accurate--let alone exact--timing of collapse. All you can do is witness the slow and gradual decline of industrial civilization.

Of course, you should only focus on the positives of peak oil, and not the negatives. Building local communities is better than relying on supply chains from around the world.

I think the world becoming a simpler place, as a result of peak oil, is overall a good thing because our modern civilization is overly complex.

[KaiserJeep]

I think conventional oil wells peaked around 2008. What that means is that half to available supply was consumed. The rest is harder to get to - depleted wells, tar sands, shale, etc. The first half was consumed over about 150 years. The second half, because of high demand, goes far more quickly. I think it will happen in 4-8 decades, with a first guess of 60 years - 2076 AD. For a couple of decades before that, pricing is very high, that's when it becomes unaffordable.

It won't be a collapse IMHO. It is best described using Kunstler's terminology - The Long Emergency. It has already begun. Things will slowly get worse for the rest of your life, and fairly desperate for your children.

I'm not one for conspiracy theories. However I do believe that the 1% has engineered and caused to occur the deliberate extinction of the Middle Class, via globalization, erosion of educational standards, and the seamless replacement of democracy with oligarchy. In a few decades, there will only be the elites and their toadies, plus the peasants - and the peasants will live short, uncomfortable, and unhealthy lives.

Except those who choose to leave a dying world and enter the new frontier of space.

[AdamB]

So lets hear folks what are the most pressing perils you feel are headed your way or already at your doorstep?

I'm still depressed from the last claimed doom that didn't happen. All we got were peak oil tshirts and EVs and cheap gasoline again.

Are you trying to cheer us all up?

[AdamB]

The truth is people have been living without oil consumption for millennia. Chill out. The age of oil isn't going to happen overnight. It will be a long, drawn out process.

Sure, but we HAVE to say that this time, because some of us famously said something else last time, and it turned into oil glut world and a US economy currently clobbering most of the rest of the world.

The truth is nobody can predict an accurate--let alone exact--timing of collapse. All you can do is witness the slow and gradual decline of industrial civilization.

Well, we know this now because we tried predicting it last time and now we know better. And depending on what you watch on TV would seem to indicate what part of "decline" you see. Like our decline while we explore other planets for example, some might not think that is much of a sign of decline.

Whereas obesity and tv-addicted children, well sure, they might decline but I doubt they will be happy, or allow, industrial civilization to stop them from using their iPhones.

I think the world becoming a simpler place, as a result of peak oil, is overall a good thing because our modern civilization is overly complex.

Peak oil doesn't seem to have given us less complex transport. I'm not sure I would count on it being much different for anything else.

[Shaved Monkey]

Except those who choose to leave a dying world and enter the new frontier of space.

Agree with most of what you said except this.
Space if its good will be only for the rich,if they need slaves and lab rats they will let some peasants go too.
but you need lots of silly money and stable economics to fund it or absolute desperation and no viable alternative but still tonnes of silly money.
So I wouldnt count on space as a big savior.

[Shaved Monkey]

Steady decline in living standards is whats happening and will continue.
Managing the thwarted expectations and the blow back will be the big challenge.
Some will except the future and embrace it and others will riot.
Some places will be worse off than others,some might not even notice a change,some will become war zones.
All you can do is get ready to adapt to your new future,that's different for everyone.
For me its no debt, improving my efficiency to reduce my running costs,being more self sufficient,growing more food,building soil and community,wanting less.
Im basically planning for retirement,less money coming in, less money going out while trying to maintain a comfortable lifestyle.

[Newfie]

I don't think your answer is knowable. Too many variables. Could be tomorrow or 50 years.

[Shaved Monkey]

Its today for some and maybe never for others

[onlooker]

Hey will are all doomed, doomed to die that is. So cheer up.