[dissident]

I live in Alberta rockdoc. I'm aware of the decreased snowfalls of recent winters, milder temperatures, hardly any standing water in early spring - there was not much moisture for the forest to begin with, since we had hardly any snow. Do you know that outdoor skating is something we can hardly do in Alberta now in the winter? We're lucky if we can keep an ice rink going for 4 weeks or so with the constant melting during the day and lack of good, cold temperatures at night. I used to run in winter temperatures of -30 to -35, haven't had to dress for that in a long time. Being an outdoor enthusiast, I see and feel the dryness, look at the trees and know they're struggling, see varieties of plants and weeds growing that have appeared from the south and grow here now. And the wind - all year long. Used to only be strong for 6 weeks or so in the spring, you could expect it then, but now it's rare to have a calm day. How do you explain all of this with just "weather"?

Thanks for these observations. They are real data. Similar persistent changes over the last 40+ years are apparent in other parts of Canada, e.g. Ontario, that clearly go beyond any weather and are clearly climate regime changes. Deniers are delusional lunatics who literally filter out reality to fit their dementia.

[vox_mundi]

Canada wildfire explodes in size, evacuees urged to go to cities

A raging Canadian wildfire grew explosively on Saturday as hot, dry winds pushed the blaze across the energy heartland of Alberta and smoke forced the shutdown of a major oil sands project

Firefighting officials said the inferno, pushed northeast towards neighboring Saskatchewan by high winds and fueled by tinder-dry forests, was set to double in size to 300,000 hectares by the end of Saturday.



The full extent of property losses in Fort McMurray has yet to be determined, but one analyst estimated insurance losses could exceed C$9 billion ($7 billion).

Within Fort McMurray, visibility is often less than 30 feet (9 meters) due to the smoke, making it still very dangerous to circulate in the city, said the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.

... Quite how quickly Fort McMurray can recover is unclear. Earlier in the day Alberta premier Rachel Notley said the city's gas had been turned off, its power grid was damaged and the water undrinkable.

Scott Long of the Alberta emergency management agency said planning had started for residents to return once the city was safe. "There is no timeline on that but I am not looking at months," he told the briefing later on Saturday.

Around 25,000 residents who initially went north found themselves cut off in overcrowded conditions. Larivee said she hoped the entire group would have moved south by the end of Saturday.

Evacuees from fire-ravaged town may have nothing left

FORT MCMURRAY, Alberta -- A tremendous wildfire in Alberta, Canada, now covers more than 385,000 acres. It is expected to grow substantially -- perhaps to double in size by Sunday morning.

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley said the massive wildfire in the province covered 385,476 acres late Friday and was expected to grow because of high temperatures, dry conditions and high winds. That size includes burned areas and those areas still in flames.

... "Services such as water, gas and electricity -- in some parts of town, it doesn't exist. In other parts, the pipes have collapsed," Jean told CBS News. "So it will take crews some period of time obviously to get things under control."

Blaze will take months to extinguish, Alberta fire official says.

“Unless we have a significant rain event of 100 millimetres of rain, we expect to be out fighting the fire in the forested area for months to come,” Chad Morrison with Alberta Wildfires told a media briefing Saturday afternoon.

“That’s not uncommon with such large fires.”

As for the city of Fort McMurray, he said he expected they may get a better handle on the situation “over the next coming month or two.”

... “The return won’t be in coming days,” said the premier. “Once the immediate fire damage is completed there will be an enormous amount of work to do to make the city safe and habitable.”



RCMP Insp. Kevin Kunetzki said Saturday that during their checks of houses in the city, officers are seeing significant signs of water and smoke damage.

Scott Long of the Alberta Emergency Management Agency said that may have been one of the costs of protecting the community.

He said firefighters use large, industrial sprinklers to “spray continuous amounts of water on houses to protect them from embers, sparks, etc., from spontaneous combustion, from the heat. So it’s quite possible there could be water damage.”

On top of that, a few days ago water bombers were dropping their loads on some of the houses in the highest-risk neighbourhoods.

“So a little bit of water damage in the basement is acceptable at this point,” Long said.

As of Saturday afternoon, the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo have asked people in the following locations to be prepared to evacuate on two hours notice:

- Camps located on both sides of Highway 63 between Parsons Creek interchange north up to and including the Ruth Lake Lodge

- Camps located on both sides of Highway 63 between Fort McMurray and Aostra Road

Fort MacKay, located about 55 kilometres north of Fort McMurray, remains under a voluntary evacuation order.

... Those who managed to escape south settled in hotels, campgrounds, with friends or at temporary reception centres. About 1,800 were being housed at the Northlands Expo Centre in Edmonton. Others went to Calgary.

They learned that the government of Alberta would be giving them $1,250 for each adult _$500 for dependents _ to cover their immediate needs while the Red Cross reported donations for victim relief have crossed the $30 million threshold. The federal government has promised to match those funds.

The RCMP caught the first _ and so far only _ looter in Fort McMurray on Friday. Mounties said a local man was arrested after they responded to a break and enter call. A police dog was used to track him down.

Visibility in town is at times less than 10 metres, said Kunetzki, adding the smoke has been so thick that he sometimes has barely been able to see in front of his car when driving.

Officers have been finding people in Fort McMurray who did not comply with the mandatory evacuation order.

One was an elderly man who was found in his home, with his dog. Patrols also came across a family of five, including three young children, who didn’t leave because they didn’t think they were in danger.

Mounties escorted them all out of town.

Kunetzki said the RCMP has checked about 30 per cent of the homes in the city for stragglers.

Most of the people they have found did not have the means to get out of the city, he said.

[WildRose]

Wild if I may ask, what is the status of whether it will be able to reach the Tar Sands fields?

As far as I know, the projects themselves have been safe so far, although there was a report earlier today saying that the north edge of the fire would likely skirt the edge of the Suncor's oil sands site today sometime. I don't know if that has happened yet, or exactly how far north of the city of Fort McMurray the fire has reached. Suncor's site is about 10 km north of town. Then there's the south edge of the fire, which puts the Nexen Long Lake project on the east side of highway 63 and the Athabasca Oil (Hangingstone) project on the west side of highway 63 at risk, if the south edge of the fire is still that far south. I've heard the the fire is expected to reach the Alberta-Saskatchewan border tonight, will soon be 300,000 hectares in size. Of course, the wind is a huge factor when it comes to which areas are threatened. And I'm sure everything possible is being done to protect the oil sites for many reasons.

Below is a map of projects around the Fort McMurray area. Nexen Long Lake is #9 and Athabasca Oil Hangingstone is #1.

http://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/oil-sands-projects-map/

[WildRose]

I live in Alberta rockdoc. I'm aware of the decreased snowfalls of recent winters, milder temperatures, hardly any standing water in early spring - there was not much moisture for the forest to begin with, since we had hardly any snow. Do you know that outdoor skating is something we can hardly do in Alberta now in the winter? We're lucky if we can keep an ice rink going for 4 weeks or so with the constant melting during the day and lack of good, cold temperatures at night. I used to run in winter temperatures of -30 to -35, haven't had to dress for that in a long time. Being an outdoor enthusiast, I see and feel the dryness, look at the trees and know they're struggling, see varieties of plants and weeds growing that have appeared from the south and grow here now. And the wind - all year long. Used to only be strong for 6 weeks or so in the spring, you could expect it then, but now it's rare to have a calm day. How do you explain all of this with just "weather"?

Thanks for these observations. They are real data. Similar persistent changes over the last 40+ years are apparent in other parts of Canada, e.g. Ontario, that clearly go beyond any weather and are clearly climate regime changes. Deniers are delusional lunatics who literally filter out reality to fit their dementia.

I appreciate that, dissident. It's interesting, when you talk to people and say, "Remember when school used to be closed because it was too cold to walk there?", stuff like that, you get a resounding YES, people recall these things and I think the vast majority of them would agree the climate is warming. Some just have a really hard time with the implications.

[WildRose]

Should mention also that the oil sands sites have really substantial fire breaks around them and also their own firefighting crews.

[WildRose]

Found this:

Fire burned around the Nexen Long Lake facility and officials have been checking its condition with satellite photos. “Initial assessment on the Nexen Long Lake facility is that likely the facility is OK, but it’s still obscured by smoke,” Morrison said.

http://edmontonjournal.com/business/ene ... s-shutdown

[dohboi]

http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-n ... res-sunday

Good News: The wildfire hasn't grown as much as feared

“We expect to hold the fire,” said Chad Morison with Alberta Wildfire, estimating the size at just 161,000 hectares [~= 620 sq miles ] at noon Sunday, much smaller than previously expected. On Saturday, fire officials said they expected it to hit 200,000 hectares by midnight.

The fire did not reach the closest Suncor and Syncrude oilsands sites, and the Nexen Long Lake facility appears to have sustained minimal damage. Inside the city, fire crews are still putting out hotspots. They were able to protect most of the city’s critical infrastructure, including its hospital and water treatment facility.

[vox_mundi]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36244499

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/how-bad- ... e-economy/

[dohboi]

http://www.edmontonsun.com/2016/05/11/c ... use-gasses

The fires in Fort McMurray have already covered about 10 per cent of the average territory burned by wildfires every year in Canada — a significant feat for one fire so early in the season

[GoghGoner]

When low EROEI projects stop, the energy consumption stops along with the supply. Interesting dynamics since we have started migrating to low EROEI oil supply.

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/

The wildfires in Alberta near its oil sands operations have led to low consumption of natural gas, which is used in oil sands mining operations, and all-time lows in Canadian natural gas prices.

The Alberta fires began Sunday, May 1, southwest of Fort McMurray, a major center of oil sands activity, and led to the evacuation of the city, but destruction was less widespread than originally feared. Officials estimate 85% - 90% of homes and buildings remain intact. By some industry analyst estimates, oil production fell by about 1 million barrels per day. Trade press reports indicate natural gas consumption has declined in the past week as a result. In addition to its use in mining and upgrading operations, natural gas is also used by many oil sands producers to operate cogeneration facilities. Declines in crude oil production are largely the result of the evacuation of oil workers, rather than direct damage to oil fields.

Media reports estimated consumption of natural gas in Alberta fell by close to 25%. While Canadian spot prices rose in the early days of the fires last week, these declines in consumption pushed prices to record lows. On the AECO trading point, a major hub for spot natural gas markets in Canada and represents all deliveries along TransCanada's Alberta pipeline system, prices dropped to $0.55 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Monday, their lowest price in the 14-year available history. By Wednesday, prices had recovered to $1.12 as some producers restarted operations. Prices at AECO had been relatively low before the fires, due at least in part to high storage levels in the United States and Canada. According to some industry analyst estimates, Alberta storage is nearing capacity and could be full within the next few months.

[Subjectivist]

How long until residents are allowed to return and oil mining resumes? I suspect it will take at least a week to go from cold start back to full production, and that can't happen until the pipelines are checked out and able to go back in service moving the oil.

[GoghGoner]

Crews are still putting out fires in the north end of the city so I wonder how much longer it may be -- longer than the officials may hope.

14 million barrels or about $760-million

Ms. Notley met on Tuesday with Suncor chief executive officer Steve Williams and other oil bosses to map plans to get the plants up and running. “We agree that operations will only restart when it is absolutely safe to do so,” she said. Mr. Williams said there was no damage to the sites north of Fort McMurray. “Our employees are very keen to get back in,” he said. “Some facilities are simply turning up the volumes now. Some will be more difficult and could be a week or two.”

[Tanada]

As the planning inches forward to eventually get thousands of Fort McMurray evacuees back into their homes, the province will help reunite many of those forced to flee the flames with their vehicles by escorting small groups into the city on a “first-come, first-served basis.”

In a statement released late Sunday afternoon, Alberta government officials said vehicles abandoned north of Highway 63 and 881, as well as those in the way of crews working on clean-up inside the city are being towed to a yard within Fort McMurray.

Residents are asked to call 780-310-4455 to find out if their car is at the lot and arrange access.

Vehicles that were left legally parked in the community and did not impede emergency responders have not been towed and therefore may not be retrieved at this time.

The province said all people retrieving their vehicles will be accompanied in and out of Fort McMurray by RCMP – with no opportunity for detours or inspections of homes or businesses.

According to officials, owners will need to provide their driver’s licence or other documentation and show that the vehicle registration corresponds with that information.

While authorities can’t guarantee abandoned vehicles will start, additional fuel will be provided by the province to allow drivers to reach the nearest gas station.

The blaze earlier this month effectively cut Fort McMurray in two, forcing about 25,000 people north and another 70,000 south down Highway 63.

http://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/rcmp-to-esco ... -1.2903355

[WildRose]

This fire is causing some new challenges for the city of Fort McMurray as hot spots are whipped up by wind, really low (15%) humidity level, and warmer temperatures again this week. Firefighters had a tough day yesterday due to increasing smoke. Air quality level in Fort McMurray is currently 38 (normally air quality level of 10 is considered extreme), so that will hinder attempts to get people back to Fort McMurray. The workers who are trying to do clean up and restore utilities, etc., are being advised to use respiratory masks, take more days off, and some have been advised to hang back until there are better air quality conditions.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2703904/extre ... try-plans/

[dohboi]

Thousands evacuated from work camps north of Fort McMurray in face of ‘expanding and growing’ firestorm:

About 4,000 workers spread between 12 work camps near Fort McMurray have been told to evacuate as the wildfire moves rapidly north.

According to Alberta Emergency Alert, the wildfire is “expanding and growing in size” and all camps located up to and including Ruth Lake Lodge, about 30 kilometres north of the city, as well as those camps and production facilities on Aostra Road, are being told to leave.

The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo says the fire is gobbling 30 to 40 metres of forest per minute and is now only six kilometres from Tower Road, a dirt road where several residential trailers are located.

http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-n ... ir-quality

And here's more on the hazards of that smokey air:

During a news conference on Monday, Premier Rachel Notley urged those not already in the Fort McMurray area to stay away, due to air quality so toxic it surpasses provincial measurements.

Alberta uses a scale of one to 10 to measure air quality, with 10 considered to be the highest risk.

Air quality in the Fort McMurray area on Monday morning was 38.

Basically what you just said, WR, but a put a bit more...forcefully!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/ ... -1.3585037

[Cid_Yama]

I thought the earlier good news sounded like political, "move along, nothing to see here." And I was right.

Wildfires scramble workers from Alberta oil camps

Hundreds of workers at several small oil camps north of Canada's main oil sands city were ordered to evacuate Monday because of a quickly spreading wildfire, and a precautionary evacuation is under way for several thousand more workers in the area.

There are about 4,000 workers at 12 camps in the area, many of them at the large Suncor and Syncrude sites. The fire is 9 to 13 miles south of the Suncor and Syncrude sites.

The Rural Municipality of Wood Buffalo said the fire is moving 33 to 44 yards per minute and is expected to burn 3.7 miles in two hours. Officials say thick smoke is also posing a hazard.

"When you have this kind of extreme fire behaviour it doesn't matter what tankers you put in front of it, it doesn't matter how many helicopters, Mother Nature is going to want to continue to move that fire forward.''

Crews continued to battle hot spots on the edge of Fort McMurray on Monday while the fire still raged out of control deeper in the forest. Hot, dry conditions were not helping firefighters.

Earlier Monday, officials warned the air quality in the Fort McMurray area was dangerously poor.

The air quality health index is normally one to 10, with 10 being the worst, but the reading on Monday morning was at 38.

Karen Grimsrud, Alberta's chief medical officer of health, said they expect the air quality readings to remain in the extreme range for the next couple of days.

She said workers in the area should be wearing respirators.

link

[dohboi]

Yeah, the msm is mostly treating this like it's yesterday's news...something to 'reflect upon'....

As rs pointed out in his recent post: " this immense fire is now about 250,000 hectares in size (965 square miles). Having grown 90,000 hectares (350 square miles) since last weekend, the blaze, which many now call The Beast, has over the past seven days expanded by 60 percent. The fire now shows every sign of exploding once again despite an intense effort by more than 1,000 firefighters."

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/16/ ... res-grows/

[EdwinSm]

The fire is heading to the oil areas now (although I know they have huge fire breaks and firefighting equipment etc)

Around 12,000 people have been urged to leave Canada's oil sands camps near the fire-hit town of Fort McMurray as a resurgent wildfire heads towards them.

A regional official told the BBC that 8,000 people were given precautionary evacuation orders late on Monday, in addition to some 4,000 who had already been advised to leave.

.....
Meanwhile, work is under way to restore essential services to Fort McMurray, paving the way for the return of the 80,000 residents.

Alberta Premier Rachel Notley said on Monday that electricity had been restored to most of the city, the water-treatment plant was working and the airport was ready to reopen.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36309184

[Cid_Yama]

A massive wildfire around the oil sands hub of Fort McMurray, Alberta, moved towards energy production facilities on Tuesday.

The fire jumped a critical firebreak area where plants and trees had been removed to stop its spread late Monday, moving north of Fort McMurray into oil sand camp areas. Some 4,000 workers were evacuated in the heavily forested northern part of the province.

The uncontrolled blaze covered 285,000 hectares (704,000 acres), officials said Monday and was moving 30 to 40 meters (98 to 131 feet) per minute.

"When you have this kind of extreme fire behaviour it doesn't matter what tankers you put in front of it, it doesn't matter how many helicopters, Mother Nature is going to want to continue to move that fire forward.''

TransAlta Corp's Poplar Creek cogeneration power plant, which provides power to Suncor, was also shut by early Tuesday due to the wildfire.

As of the time of writing, the wildfires had expanded to almost 1,100 square miles and is expected to spread.

Wildfires continued their devastating advance on Tuesday, leading authorities to order more evacuations in Canada's oil sands region surrounding the city of Fort McMurray.

In total, about 8,000 people were forced to leave some 20 camps and facilities north of the city in Alberta province due to thick smoke and flareups.

The evacuation order was issued late Monday (0200 GMT Tuesday) for the area connected by a 50 kilometer (31 mile) stretch of highway between Fort McMurray and the town of Fort MacKay, in the heart of the oil sands.

"Several camps are affected by this evacuation. Approximately 8,000 people impacted," the statement read.

In their latest bulletin, fire officials reported 19 active fires in Alberta, four more than announced on Monday.

Suncor has ordered the evacuation of thousands of oil workers in Alberta, and Enbridge’s oil sands transportation terminal is under threat as wildfires continue to push through the province.

On Monday, Suncor said it had ordered the evacuation of 8,000 workers from its oil sands camps in the Wood Buffalo municipality and shut down operations as authorities expanded the evacuation zone north of Fort McMurray, where the wildfires started over two weeks ago.

Syncrude Canada has also shut down its oil sands mine and processing plant due to smoke on the site, located north of Fort McMurray. The company said that it evacuated all personnel, some 4,800 of them.

Earlier Monday, officials warned the air quality in the Fort McMurray area was dangerously poor. The air quality health index is normally one to 10, with 10 being the worst, but the reading on Monday morning was at 38.

Karen Grimsrud, Alberta's chief medical officer of health, said they expect the air quality readings to remain in the extreme range for the next couple of days.

She said workers in the area should be wearing respirators.

The Rural Municipality of Wood Buffalo said the fire is moving 33 to 44 yards per minute and is expected to burn 3.7 miles in two hours. Officials say thick smoke is also posing a hazard.

Enbridge’s Cheecham oil sands terminal is battling the spread of the fire less than one kilometer from the facility. The terminal is approximately 47 miles southeast of Fort McMurray, also in the Wood Buffalo region.

link

This appears to be 2 different fires one north of Ft McMurray, the other southeast.

[Cid_Yama]

Alberta wildfire expected to reach Saskatchewan today

"We expect the eastern front of this fire to reach the Saskatchewan border likely today with the western winds, but it is a dynamic situation," Alberta's senior wildfire manager Chad Morrison told reporters Tuesday morning.

There has been no significant rainfall in this entire area recently, leading to extremely dry conditions that are expected to continue, the province says.

link

About 8,000 workers were removed from lodging facilities threatened by a fire that had grown to about 3,550 square kilometers (1,370 square miles), Alberta Premier Rachel Notley said. That’s an area bigger than Rhode Island.

Blacksand lodge, a work camp about 40 kilometers (24 miles) northwest of Fort McMurray that serves Suncor and Syncrude Canada Ltd. sites, was destroyed by fire on Tuesday, Notley said.

Westerly winds will push the fire closer to Suncor and Syncrude oil-sands plants, “We expect fire growth in the area of many of these camps today.”

Other work camps are currently threatened by the fire, in addition to the Horizon North facility that was already destroyed, officials said on Tuesday. Highway 63, the main road in and out of Fort McMurray that has been closed for periods during the fire, is very likely threatened again and may close, Notley said.

Horizon’s Blacksand lodge, a 665-room facility, was safely evacuated and the company assumes it was entirely lost, Rod Graham, chief executive officer, said in a phone interview.

link