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Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

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Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby ennui2 » Fri 02 Sep 2016, 22:32:35

Now and then AdamB has bumped or linked to ancient threads in order to provide some much needed perspective to the remaining active posters. This is a useful function despite the fact that he (and I) have been criticized for focusing too much on looking back rather than forward. The problem is that doomers tend to live only in the present and future-tense. They have an aversion to look back and calculate their predictive batting-averages. I think the fact this site has posts that go as far back as 2004 is incredibly instructive.

There are very few of us here now who were around before 2008 when this site was jumping, to remember the palpable Y2K-like state of fear that accompanied the runup of oil to $147/bbl. There were constant discussions of where to bugout, where to build your doomstead, how to garden, building off-grid systems, plus the usual doomer porn discussions of long-pork, brave militia fighting off jack-boot thugs, georgia-guidestones, olduvia gorge, Ishmael, the whole doomer circus. No matter what the flavor, all of this was fueled by a common sense that TS would HTF and TEOTWAWKI was nigh.

I remember projecting myself into the future and wondering how long this site would remain online and whether any of us would be able to keep comparing notes while the world crumbled beneath our feet. Never did I imagine that the center would hold this long and the main talking points would be that oil being cheap during a glut is the main problem rather than oil scarcity.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. The reason there are so few posters here is that fast-crash peak-oil doomerism has been effectively discredited. This is why The Oil Drum is dead, Matt Savinar is an astrologer, Sharon Astyk is selling her farm, why Chris Martenson rebranded his stuff to Peak Prosperity, and why most of the remaining doom blogging has fallen back to cranky whine-fests about everyday geopolitics.

It's not like the discussions here cover oil that much anymore. When Monte poked in here almost a year ago he was mostly concerned with debt. And pound for pound there is more substantive AGW talk here than peak oil. The parrot-like restatements of ETP's faulty logic is really all that resembles a peak-oil discussion since oil remains cheap.

It's really down to a literal handful of posters who are in any way true believers. Any rational person faced with such dwindling peer support would probably have thrown in the towel. So by definition, those who remain, do so because there's something wrong with their thinking. StarvingLion is the poster-child for that. Others tend to harbor huge ideological axes to grind, and peak-oil provides a convenient vessel in which to wishcast the end of systems or ways of life they dislike. A need to construct eschatologies.

What I see the least of is any genuine desire to tease out the truth. Most people here are starting with a conclusion and trying to spin and cook the books however necessary to justify that conclusion. Unfortunately nobody here's willing to acknowledge they are doing it. And so we see this endless appeal to authority. Doomers keep linking almost exclusively to zerohedge and shadowstats and things like that. Moderates post to Newsweek, National Geographic, Washington Post, etc... And yet doomers think their authorities are more definitive. Oh, you can't trust the MSM, they say. And so they kind of wrap themselves around a cult-like reality-distortion-field of doom. Maybe they don't believe in FEMA coffins and reptilians, but by constructing an us vs. them mentality in which the only sources worth listening to are perma-doom bloggers, they really are not that far off from cultists.

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DISCUSS
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 02 Sep 2016, 23:47:51

ennui2 wrote:I think the fact this site has posts that go as far back as 2004 is incredibly instructive.


Yes. It means this site has been around since 2004.

ennui2 wrote:I remember projecting myself into the future and wondering how long this site would remain online and whether any of us would be able to keep comparing notes while the world crumbled beneath our feet. Never did I imagine that the center would hold this long and the main talking points would be that oil being cheap during a glut is the main problem rather than oil scarcity.


Yup. You never did have a very firm grasp on reality, even back when you were posting as mos.

ennui2 wrote:I've said it before and I'll say it again. The reason there are so few posters here is that fast-crash peak-oil doomerism has been effectively discredited.
DISCUSS


Its not just "fast-crash peak-oil doomerism" that is discredited. Fast-crash, slow-crash...the whole idea of peak oil is discredited in the eyes of the general public. The predictions made in 2005 that global oil production was about to peak and then start an inexorable decline haven't panned out. Here we are 10 years later, and global oil production is higher then ever.

ennui2 wrote: It's really down to a literal handful of posters ... Any rational person faced with such dwindling peer support would probably have thrown in the towel. So by definition, those who remain, do so because there's something wrong with their thinking.


You have an unfortunate tendency to see everything through your own eyes. Actually, there's quite a range of different kinds of interesting people here, and there are many different viewpoints and perspectives still represented here. There's no need to insult everyone at this site just because you don't like the site anymore.

Yes, PeakOil.com is different then it used to be. But it can still be pretty darn interesting.

Cheers!

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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 01:41:54

Its interesting that you are so interested in insulting everyone you can here. Almost seems desperate for some reason.

Well, to me, this is a perfectly fine site, I've been slow, boring crash doomer since I first thought about the issue. In particular, advocating the notion that "Demand Destruction" is *not* the problem, its the answer that mitigates and prevents any rapid divergence from equilibrium. Simply because Demand can fall much faster than Oil production eases to respond to reduced market, thus leading to periodic oversupply. And its even stronger than I originally imagined, because Demand is much more fluid going down, than coming back up. So price goes to high, demand drops, price drops, but demand takes a long long time to reassert itself, allowing a sort of excess bubble to form preventing any pricing power from manifesting itself for a long time.

Similar with climate change, while I do think the long run picture is very very bleak, I also don't expect anything all that interesting to happen in my lifetime. I do expect that by the time I age out, the models will reveal the extent and magnitude of the problem. But otherwise, meh.

I've always had a place to retreat to, and I've always kept a decent pantry, because that is something one SHOULD do, doomer or not. I don't need world ending doom to know to have enough food for a few months on hand. I don't need apocalyptico to think it a good idea to have somewhere safe and maintained to return to.
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 04:35:39

Plantagenet wrote: Actually, there's quite a range of different kinds of interesting people here, and there are many different viewpoints and perspectives still represented here.


This more than anything sums up the validity of this site.

As to the doomer mindset I think Ennui describes it well but like Agent mentioned what stands out after reading the opening post is less an indictment on doomerism and more this desperate fixation on naming it.

Ennui is still processing those years he swallowed the doomer bait hook,line and sinker. That is what this is mostly about. It was well written though and engaging.
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby davep » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 05:17:09

I remember the classification system of doomers, moderates and cornucopians. I still see us moderates as being right (i.e no fast crash, but profound and inevitable changes due to energy costs over time). Our financial system that requires constant growth in order to stand still is built upon cheap resources, especially energy. We've already entered the infamous saw-blade downslide (IMO).
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 06:14:27

As Planty said, peak oil is dead, long live peak oil.

We don't have to be ranting raving looney tunes like half the site was in 2007 to stick around here. In my book, very long discussions have become a rare treasure in life. 30 years ago I started sitting in cafe's all day in Byron Bay, hanging out with the most intelligent conversationalists I could find, soaking up knowledge, trying earnestly to become wise. 20 years ago they started to die. 10 years ago, Byron became a hollowed out shadow of what it was, the cafe intelligencia went the way of the dodo & the gay bar, everyone scattered & the internet took over. The gays went to grinder, the straights to tinder, the cafe scene moved to themed groups & forums like this one.

The forums here provide the stimulus & continuity I used to find hanging out with the guys (& the odd girl) in the cafe scene which no longer exists. The virtual cafe has gone pretty quiet the last few years, but the core crew are still around, enough that the conversation is ongoing & valuable, enough that I'm going to keep coming here for my coffee.

At some point, it is written, this cafe is going to get insanely busy again, busier than ever. Will that make it better? More or less fun? Will the owners ever make a profit? Will any of us still be around if it takes decades? Who knows? Who cares?

It's my cafe & I love it.
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 09:14:01

Plantagenet wrote:Yup. You never did have a very firm grasp on reality, even back when you were posting as mos.


Why do you say that when you agree with what I'm saying?

Just to be a flaming douche?

Plantagenet wrote:there's quite a range of different kinds of interesting people here, and there are many different viewpoints and perspectives still represented here.


I didn't direct this post towards every poster. Check your reading comprehension.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 10:24:02

The title thread can only be true if oil production costs plummet and diminishing returns are reversed.
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 12:07:33

SeaGypsy wrote:As Planty said, peak oil is dead, long live peak oil.

We don't have to be ranting raving looney tunes like half the site was in 2007 to stick around here. In my book, very long discussions have become a rare treasure in life. 30 years ago I started sitting in cafe's all day in Byron Bay, hanging out with the most intelligent conversationalists I could find, soaking up knowledge, trying earnestly to become wise. 20 years ago they started to die. 10 years ago, Byron became a hollowed out shadow of what it was, the cafe intelligencia went the way of the dodo & the gay bar, everyone scattered & the internet took over. The gays went to grinder, the straights to tinder, the cafe scene moved to themed groups & forums like this one.

The forums here provide the stimulus & continuity I used to find hanging out with the guys (& the odd girl) in the cafe scene which no longer exists. The virtual cafe has gone pretty quiet the last few years, but the core crew are still around, enough that the conversation is ongoing & valuable, enough that I'm going to keep coming here for my coffee.

At some point, it is written, this cafe is going to get insanely busy again, busier than ever. Will that make it better? More or less fun? Will the owners ever make a profit? Will any of us still be around if it takes decades? Who knows? Who cares?

It's my cafe & I love it.



Great Post, SG.

As usual. You contribute a lot of great posts.
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 14:21:50

pstarr wrote:Each of you guys/gals have contributed so much to this site. I thank you all. I am constantly challenged and delighted by the so many different attitudes and personalities.

I'll second that. Even when each of us (at various times) are repeatedly challenged by those of us who very consistently persist in a view which opposes a core belief of ours -- all the differing viewpoints and knowledge bases certainly make the site stronger.

Every time I start to wonder if the signal to noise ratio is getting too low to tolerate, some interesting new idea/thread/debate gets cranked up.

IMO, this is a perfect example of "The Wisdom of Crowds" in action, even if the core crowd isn't exactly huge. So, as long as the mods (THANK YOU MODS FOR YOUR SERVICE!) can help us refrain from becoming a mob by enforcing the COC as appropriate, in the big picture -- what's not to like? :)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 14:40:40

Here's where peak-oil exists in the realm of pop-culture these days, a punch-line. Yes, this is current.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62tiluoqHRw
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 17:46:54

For those who don't know, Mosennui has been steadfastly ignoring me for pigeon holing him as a classic megalopolis embroiled confused flip tacker & telling him his animations suck. That was mean of me I guess, but someone had to say it. The fact he hasn't gotten over it for at least 2 years tells me along with his posts, he's still stuck in the same boring urbane mental death trap.
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 18:55:32

"classic megalopolis embroiled confused flip tacker"

What the hell even IS that? Man, you rarely say anything even worth replying to. You've got delusions of grandeur. You can look down on me all you want. I don't come here for personal validation.
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 19:04:43

A megalopolis is where you live. Your embroilment is your inability to extricate your mindset. A flip tacker is a type of sailboat which turns in the opposite direction without changing any rigging. Your confusion is evident in your contradictory positions on doom, which you scoff at but believe in. Your animations did suck. If you aren't here for validation, why tell us about your yuppie lifestyle? Why the hell are you here? Nobody likes you & you don't like anyone, so why?
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 19:11:27

A megalopolis is where you live.


My town has less than 30,000 residents. How is that a 'megalopolis'? And how does that matter exactly? Nobody can grasp peak-oil unless they live in a back-woods hamlet with a few toothless yokels? What's the logic here besides some sort of cheap class-baiting?

Your confusion is evident in your contradictory positions on doom, which you scoff at but believe in.


Which are?

I'm here to say it like I see it, which is the moderate peak-oil scenario. If Pops were still here he'd be saying exactly what I've been saying. There's currently a dearth of moderate voices here to the point where there's an attempt to close the loop on an echo-chamber. That's why I started the thread, because I'm tired of the lack of diversity of opinion.
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 19:20:42

"A town of 30,000" in greater Boston right? Don't pretend you don't know what I'm talking about, you are a "nothing left but cockroaches at the end of all this" doomer, who endlessly harrasses more rational posters than yourself. Bottom line is you are a power tripping control freak with no friends, that's why you are here. Nobody cares if you project your echo chamber reality into everything you engage in, just your stultifying arrogance is revolting & thus people tend to bark at you & send you back to your weird yuppie fringe neocon corner.
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Re: Peakoil.com is a Mausoleum to the Doomer Mindset

Unread postby careinke » Sat 03 Sep 2016, 19:27:31

SeaGypsy wrote: Why the hell are you here? Nobody likes you & you don't like anyone, so why?


A Masochist walks up to a sadist in a bar. He says to the sadist: "Look you are obviously a sadist and I happen to be a masochist....sooo why don't we get together and do our thing.

The sadist looks at him for a second and says Fuc# off.

The sadist says "Thank you" and walks off.
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