[Plantagenet]

NPR just interviewed a democratic senator who was railing agains Trump's appointment of a HHS secretary. The D senator railed about all the tent villages and people living under bridges and how this number had grown so much and how there were no jobs etc etc..

I was amazed.

I never heard a D senator talk that way before the election. Just a few weeks ago all the Ds were saying how great the economy was

Cheers!

[copious.abundance]

NAHB Housing Market Index Jumps to 9-Year High

U.S. builders’ confidence in the market for single-family homes jumped in December to the highest level in more than a decade, when the sector was near its pre-crisis peak.

The National Association of Home Builders, a trade group, said Thursday its housing-market index rose to 70 in December, from a reading of 63 the prior month. This month’s reading was the highest level since July 2005. A number over 50 indicates more builders view conditions as good than poor.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a reading of 63.

“Though this significant increase in builder confidence could be considered an outlier, the fact remains that the economic fundamentals continue to look good for housing,” said Robert Dietz, the home builder trade group’s chief economist. The rise in the index “is consistent with recent gains for the stock market and consumer confidence.”

[...]

[copious.abundance]

Philly Fed Blows Out Expectations in December

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, manufacturing activity in its region picked up in December. This month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed that the index for current manufacturing activity surged higher to 21.5 in December from a reading of 7.6 in November. The indexes for general activity, shipments and employment were all positive in December, and all also posted gains from their readings last month.

Thursday’s release of the so-called Philly Fed reading showed that manufacturers were much more optimistic about growth over the next six months. Also rising were the indexes for future employment and capital spending.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

U.S. core capital goods orders jump in November

New orders for U.S.-made capital goods rose more than expected in November amid strong demand for machinery and primary metals, suggesting some of the oil-related drag on manufacturing was starting to fade.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday that non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, increased 0.9 percent after an unrevised 0.2 percent gain in October.

There were increases in orders for electrical equipment, appliances and components, as well as computers and electronic products. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast these so-called core capital goods rising 0.3 percent in November.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

U.S. third-quarter economic growth raised to 3.5 percent

The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the third quarter, notching its best performance in two years, amid solid consumer spending and a jump in soybean exports.

Gross domestic product increased at a 3.5 percent annual rate instead of the previously reported 3.2 percent pace, the Commerce Department said in its third GDP estimate on Thursday.

Growth was the strongest since the July-September period of 2014 and followed the second quarter's anemic 1.4 percent pace.

Output was also lifted by upward revisions to business investment in structures and intellectual property products, underscoring the economy's solid fundamentals, which contributed to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates last week.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

Manufacturers most upbeat in two years, ISM survey shows

American manufacturers finished 2016 on a wave of optimism, as a survey of executives hit the highest level in two years.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index climbed to 54.7% in December from 53.2%, slightly higher than the MarketWatch forecast. Any number above 50% signals expansion.

The index is compiled from a survey of executives who order raw materials and other supplies for their companies. The gauge tends to rise or fall in tandem with the health of the economy,

New orders and production surged in the final month of the year and plans for employment also edged higher. Bradley Holcomb, chairman of the ISM survey committee, said comments from executives were largely positive.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

For the most part, people living in tent villages aren't very employable, so Planty's comment was basically off-topic.

[copious.abundance]

US Car Sales Had Another Record-Setting Year in 2016

Overall sales rose by 56,211 units or 0.3 percent over 2015, landing 2016’s total sales tally at 17,539,052 light cars and trucks sold. December was a particularity strong month with a three percent jump in volume.

The seasonally adjusted, annualized sales rate (SAAR) hit 18.83 million in December, marking the highest pace of the year and the fifth-highest of all time. As of November 2016, sales were just 6,418 units ahead of 2015 levels, causing many to believe that the record set in 2015 wouldn’t be broken. Significant incentives from all automakers are a leading cause of the sales spike in December along with an extra weekend compared to December of 2015.

The strong December was led by big gains at GM, which rose 10 percent, Nissan, advancing 9.7 percent and Honda, which posted a 6.4 percent gain.

[...]

[Outcast_Searcher]

US Car Sales Had Another Record-Setting Year in 2016

Overall sales rose by 56,211 units or 0.3 percent over 2015, landing 2016’s total sales tally at 17,539,052 light cars and trucks sold. December was a particularity strong month with a three percent jump in volume.

Wow. Impressive. I was assuming that 2016 would be strong, but wouldn't beat 2015.

So for fans of the ETP model, how does this square with demand destruction from people being unable to even buy gasoline?

And don't pretend like this is a US only phenomena. China auto sales were increasing in the ballpark of 20% for the year through November. (I don't see full year figures for China yet).

Again, that's a LOT of cars being sold if people can't afford to buy gas to run them.

[Subjectivist]

US Car Sales Had Another Record-Setting Year in 2016

Overall sales rose by 56,211 units or 0.3 percent over 2015, landing 2016’s total sales tally at 17,539,052 light cars and trucks sold. December was a particularity strong month with a three percent jump in volume.

Wow. Impressive. I was assuming that 2016 would be strong, but wouldn't beat 2015.

So for fans of the ETP model, how does this square with demand destruction from people being unable to even buy gasoline?

And don't pretend like this is a US only phenomena. China auto sales were increasing in the ballpark of 20% for the year through November. (I don't see full year figures for China yet).

Again, that's a LOT of cars being sold if people can't afford to buy gas to run them.

Don't economists gave a fancy term for a growing number of invididual consumers? Structural demand or something like that? People who buy cars want them to be able to drive on demand, so they buy tires and belts and hoses and lubricants and most of all, fuel.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Wow. Impressive. I was assuming that 2016 would be strong, but wouldn't beat 2015.

So for fans of the ETP model, how does this square with demand destruction from people being unable to even buy gasoline?

And don't pretend like this is a US only phenomena. China auto sales were increasing in the ballpark of 20% for the year through November. (I don't see full year figures for China yet).

Again, that's a LOT of cars being sold if people can't afford to buy gas to run them.

Don't economists gave a fancy term for a growing number of invididual consumers? Structural demand or something like that? People who buy cars want them to be able to drive on demand, so they buy tires and belts and hoses and lubricants and most of all, fuel.

Good point on the number of licensed drivers in the US steadily increasing, Sub. I don't know what that formal term is (nearly 40 years since I took an economics class), but clearly more licensed drivers will tend to drive (no pun intended) more demand for consumable car products like gasoline.

I just checked, and it looks like this number has increased very steadily from 1990 through 2014.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/191 ... ince-1988/

I was just pointing out that generally, with record new cars being sold in the US the past two years (at well over $30,000 for the average transaction cost), the ETP'ers claim that people "can't afford gasoline", especially at current prices, is simply ludicrous.

Here's some pretty interesting analysis of US miles driven in recent decades by year from the DOT, analyzing actual data instead of doomer wishful thinking, with some helpful links.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... g-behavior

Gasoline prices clearly impact the total number of miles driven, and people are clearly finding gasoline more affordable since 2013 (per the final chart, showing rapidly accelerating population adjusted growth in vehicle miles. The chart also shows the meaningful adjusted decline in miles driven from 2005 to 2013, which correlates very strongly with the period of high US gasoline prices.

So as I've been saying, recently the BIG drop in gasoline prices has made gasoline VERY affordable, not unaffordable, even adjusting for licensed driver growth. (And that's not surprising in an economy that continues to grow GDP and jobs).

[copious.abundance]

On a per-capita basis, sales of light vehicles have actually been going down for decades. Probably the main reason for that is, cars are better made than they used to be, so people can hang on to them for longer. Used to be you'd buy a new car every 3 or 4 years, nowadays people tend to hold on to them for at least 5 years.

LINK


In fact, the average age of cars on the road is now a record 11.5 years

The average age of vehicles on the road in the U.S. is rising, even as consumers snap up more new ones — a paradox attributable to substantial increases in reliability.

The typical car on the road in the U.S. is a record-high 11.5 years old, according to a new IHS Automotive survey.

[onlooker]

Here is the real story of what is happening in the US
http://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire ... WSXXyup.99

[onlooker]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-0 ... abor-force
In Obama's Final Jobs report, A Record 95.1 Million People Were Not In The Labor Force

[Outcast_Searcher]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-06/obamas-final-jobs-report-record-951-million-people-were-not-labor-force
In Obama's Final Jobs report, A Record 95.1 Million People Were Not In The Labor Force

So demographics means nothing in your world? I'm no Obama fan, but this figure is MEANINGLESS without context, re full employment.

But I'm sure you already knew that.

[copious.abundance]

U.S. adds 156,000 jobs, wage growth surges to 7-year high

The U.S. added 156,000 new jobs in the final month of 2016 and worker pay rose at the fastest pace since the Great Recession, reflecting a surge in employment over the past six years that’s left many companies complaining about a shortage of skilled labor.

The increase in hiring last month was spearheaded by health-care providers, financial firms, manufacturers, restaurants and shipping companies, the government said.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, edged up to 4.7% from 4.6% as more people entered the labor force in search of work. That’s a good sign.

In afternoon trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.32% was flirting with 20,000. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 180,000 increase in new nonfarm jobs in December.

The U.S. has created more than 2 million jobs in each year since 2011, though hiring has slowed over the last two years. Many economists say there’s just not enough suitable talent available to around, especially with baby boomers retiring and the working-age population growing more slowly.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Here is the real story of what is happening in the US
http://www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire ... WSXXyup.99

Because if you can't make your case with facts, distort some data, claim the real data is from a government conspiracy, etc.

And if you do this and are wrong, year after year, decade after decade, you expect to be considered credible, why?