[onlooker]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-1 ... lapse-2009

US Restaurant Industry Suffers Worst Collapse Since 2009

[Outcast_Searcher]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-17/us-restaurant-industry-suffers-worst-collapse-2009

US Restaurant Industry Suffers Worst Collapse Since 2009

1). Since is a 1.1% decrease in sales (March) a "collapse"?

2). As time goes on, it will be interesting to see how much the minimum wage increases had to do with this. I see NY/NJ doing the worst, and the west doing the best, for example.

3). Meanwhile the bigger picture shows anything but collapse, with higher global growth forecast for 2017.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... 100592270/

[copious.abundance]

New-home sales roar to an 8-month high as spring selling season starts with a bang

Sales of newly-constructed homes throttled to the highest in nearly a year in March as the housing recovery picked up steam.

New-home sales ran at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 621,000, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was 5.8% higher than a downwardly-adjusted February sales pace, and 15.6% higher than a year ago.

The March reading was the second-strongest since early 2008, just behind the 622,000 pace of sales notched last July. It easily beat the median forecast of a 580,000 rate from economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

[...]

[onlooker]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ium=social
Retailers Are Going Bankrupt at a Record Pace

[Outcast_Searcher]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-24/retailers-are-going-bankrupt-at-a-record-pace?cmpid=socialflow-facebook-markets&utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social
Retailers Are Going Bankrupt at a Record Pace

This is because of the internet.

There are articles all over the place talking about this trend. This is nothing new and nothing alarming. It's a technological change, just like the fact that so many cashier jobs have gone away over time due to self-check-out.

If we get an actual long term collapse in retail sales over a significant amount of time (not a tiny quarterly blip and lots of hand waving from the likes of zerohedge), then you'd have a trend that would be concerning enough to be worth investigating the underlying reasons for.

In the 80's and 90's I did about 90% of my shopping at Walmart stores. Now, I've only gone into Walmart once in the past few years, when I needed to try on some blue jeans to figure out my size as my waistline gradually grows over the years. But i still buy lots of stuff from Walmart -- just in $50+ lumps when I can get free and convenient shipping. Plus I buy a ton of stuff from Amazon with "free" Prime shipping.

So this is definitely a job shift issue -- but NOT an economic collapse issue.

[asg70]

Great thread here.

Speaking of jobs:

U.S. job growth rebounded sharply in April and the unemployment rate dropped to a near 10-year low of 4.4 percent, signs of a tightening labor market that could seal the case for an interest rate increase next month despite moderate wage growth.

[copious.abundance]

Yep.

U.S. creates 211,000 jobs in April as hiring rebounds

Some 211,000 people found new jobs in April as hiring rebounded from a wobbly showing in early spring, offering fresh evidence the economy is still growing at healthy clip and paving the way for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon.

Unemployment, meanwhile, dipped to 4.4% from 4.5% to match the lowest level since May 2007, shortly before the onset of the Great Recession. If the rate falls again it will match a 16-year low.

[...]

[Cog]

Were you aware that Apple is sitting on $246 billion in cash? It would be difficult to over-value this company.

[Cog]

Could you show me on the Fed balance sheet where this transfer of money from the Federal Reserve to Apple took place?

[onlooker]

Inflation much worse than being reported
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/ ... pi%205.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-0 ... y-reported

[Cog]

Or it could be that Zerohedge is doing their usual "We are all doomed" reporting gig. How has that worked out for them?

[Outcast_Searcher]

Or it could be that Zerohedge is doing their usual "We are all doomed" reporting gig. How has that worked out for them?

All you need is a little common sense to debunk the crazy idea that inflation has been 8% on average for decades. If that were the case, prices would roughly double every 9 years.

My house in central KY in a small city cost my dad $20,000 in 1962. The tax assessment is currently $170,000, and there have been some improvements over the years.

So that's about 8x in 55 years (given the impact of improvements like the added sun-room).

At 4% inflation, that's 3 doublings in 54 years, or a total of 8x which gets us to $160,000.

So 4% is close. There's nothing remarkable about my state or community, so I'm sure this is in the ballpark experience of the US average -- just like the MSM reported figures.

Considering this covered the inflationary 60's, 70's, and early 80's, 4% on average doesn't seem "scary" at all.

A cheap car in 1970 was about $3000. A cheap car in 2017 is in the lower $20's. Using $24,000 would be three doublings, to keep the math simple. So for cars you have a rate of about 6%, which given all the safety and comfort and quality improvements isn't dramatic.

For the house 8% for the 55 year period would give a little over 6 doublings. That would be $640,000 + today. Not even remotely in the ballpark of reality.

So again, unless you want to cherry pick AND not count adjustments for technology, safety, quality, etc. like the government does, then the zerohedge numbers don't pass the laugh test.

Not that I would expect the perma-short-term doomers to ever acknowledge economic reality.

[asg70]

The hits keep on coming.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e ... 871LW?il=0

The best labor market in nearly 30 years should tell Fed officials that additional monetary stimulus is not required.

I'm sure there will be no shortage of linking to Zerohedge from Onlooker, though.

[onlooker]

http://www.globalresearch.ca/impoverish ... ty/5495178
Impoverishment of the Middle Class in America: Middle-income Households No Longer The Majority
Not Zerohedge but The Pew study,

[asg70]

http://www.globalresearch.ca/impoverishment-of-middle-class-in-america-middle-income-households-no-longer-the-majority/5495178
Impoverishment of the Middle Class in America: Middle-income Households No Longer The Majority
Not Zerohedge but The Pew study,

GlobalResearch. I knew that was coming. You rarely link to anything other than those two. That's even worse than Zerohedge.

Seriously, though. In the old days the discussion was about Mad Max and cannibalism. Now the worst you can scrape up is "Middle-income Households No Longer The Majority"? As far as the hype of overshoot and die-off goes, that's little more than a hangnail.

[onlooker]

I wasn't around in the old days to hear the fascinating talk of Mad Max and cannibalism 2013 joined

[dissident]

http://www.globalresearch.ca/impoverishment-of-middle-class-in-america-middle-income-households-no-longer-the-majority/5495178
Impoverishment of the Middle Class in America: Middle-income Households No Longer The Majority
Not Zerohedge but The Pew study,

GlobalResearch. I knew that was coming. You rarely link to anything other than those two. That's even worse than Zerohedge.

Seriously, though. In the old days the discussion was about Mad Max and cannibalism. Now the worst you can scrape up is "Middle-income Households No Longer The Majority"? As far as the hype of overshoot and die-off goes, that's little more than a hangnail.

So you have no counter argument and just shoot the messenger. Real credible you are...in your own mind.