Outcast_Searcher wrote:When I'm talking about widespread EV adoption over the next 15 to 30 years due to economics, I'm talking about in the first world, where the price and road competition is against $33,000 on average new ICE vehicles, and road conditions are largely paved and relatively well maintained.
I agree that the third world is a COMPLETELY different kettle of fish.
I've repeatedly said that I'm not buying the rapid adoption of EV's in the third world as long as electricity is unreliable or unavailable in large quantities. AND that with incomes in places like India largely at the scale where families are hoping to buy a $2500ish Nano -- that EV's becoming dominant just isn't in the cards for a long time.
It's unfortunate that many of the "thought leaders" arguing either pro or con for such topics tend to think and speak as though the problem is monolithic, and thus will just happen everywhere (or not) because of "economics".
Keep in mind that companies that manufacture EVs, especially in partnership with foreign companies and involving foreign investors, and in competition with each other, will want to maximize profitability by expanding to other markets. That's what businesses have been doing for decades:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-22956470Not only that, but many of the material resources needed for manufactured goods, in several cases manufacturing plants, and various services to support these businesses operate in developing countries.
That means for the industry to remain healthy the global economy on which it relies cannot depend on domestic markets (including those that are aging and facing high levels of debt) to sustain growing production and sales.
This explains why the industry will not sell things like the Nano to consumers but cheaper models, and might even earn more from selling the latter. And even then most consumers worldwide will still rely on ICEVs and not EVs for reasons given earlier.
The implication is that for any transition to other sources of energy through a free market capitalist system will require the opposite of limits to growth plus increasing energy returns.