How The Cost Of Energy Is Going To Zero
A key part of my argument for a new Golden Age to take place during the coming Roaring Twenties is that the price of energy is going to zero.
It may not actually make it to zero. I'll settle for 90%-95% which is good enough for me.
Take a look at the charts below.
The first one shows how the price of a watt of solar generated electricity has plunged by 99.03% since 1977, from $76.67 to $0.74.
Just in the past six years, retail prices for completed solar panels dropped by a staggering 80%.
That is cheaper than electricity supplies generated by new natural gas plants, which now costs 7 cents per kwh.
The potential price declines for natural gas from here are near zero. After all, it's hard to improve on the near 100% burn rates you get with gas, and many producers are already losing money at current price levels of $2.68 per MM btu.
Squeezing efficiencies out of our existing solar technology through improved software, production methods, chemistry, and design are nearly unlimited, and are expected to drive solar costs down by half to 3 cents per kwh by 2035.
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I'm reminded of the mural that used to be on the lobby wall of the Seattle City Light building, captioned, "That man may use it freely .. the air he breathes .. the waters of the rivers ... the winds of heaven." "It," of course, referring to electricity.