[SeaGypsy]

For some reason I can't post links, anyway google the headline, it is all over the web. Getting scary now. Is Syria worth TEOTWAWKI?

[SeaGypsy]

The foeums are playing up again, tgis post was made this morning, no longer showing up in new posts list/ timeline.

[onlooker]

It is getting REALLY SCARY. http://newsmasterapp.com/article/i63407 ... pp_id=1106

Fears of a third global war were further stoked on Thursday after Russia launched from a submarine in the Barents Sea the Topol missile, the fastest in the world, as part of a series of ballistics test. However, on the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered all officials with relatives living overseas to fly them back to Russia because of heightened tensions on the prospect of World War III.

On Wednesday, the We Are Anonymous hacker group claimed Pentagon admitted World War III is imminent,

[Sixstrings]

I saw this in the news, Russia has a large fleet headed for Syria, and they plan a final assault on Aleppo in aid of Assad's forces.

According to the article, its meant to conclusively win the Syrian civil war for Assad, and then Russia plans to exit the civil war afterward:

Russia taunts US with biggest military offensive since the Cold War

Russia has begun its biggest surface deployment since the end of the Cold War as it aims to effectively end the war in Syria on the eve of the US election, Nato officials warned last night.

The Kremlin is sending the full might of its Northern Fleet and part of the Baltic Fleet to reinforce a final assault on the city of Aleppo in a fortnight, according to Western intelligence.

The final bombardment is designed to shore up the Assad regime by wiping out rebels – paving the way for a Russian exit from the civil war.

The assault on the city will also serve to highlight US inaction in the run-up to election day and may aid Donald Trump.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/19/russia-taunts-us-with-biggest-military-offensive-since-the-cold/

Just for my own opinion -- if it were Europe getting pushed on, or east Europe, then that's a whole different story, versus Syria.

There should be more wiggle room about Syria, but the whole thing is complex. The "West" includes a lot of countries in the ME, that just do not like Assad and may not accept him staying, and that's always been the sticking point.

BUT.. is Syria, the same thing as Poland? Or Estonia? Or Ukraine, or Sweden or Finland or UK? Nope, it's not.

We'll see what happens. It's all complicated, for one thing the West doesn't want to see that city of Aleppo just get completely bombed out, by Russia, and all the civilian casualties. Meanwhile, apparently Russia may want to win the war for Assad, regardless of civilian cost.

It's a tough situation -- nobody wants war with Russia, Syria is not quite the same thing as democratic Poland, yet Western leaders don't want to see Russia wipe a city out, either.

[Sixstrings]

Russian ships anchoring off Scotland:

Royal Navy heroes stalk Putin’s nuke fleet as it heads for English Channel – after Russian media mocked our ‘tiny’ and ‘weak’ forces
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2005688/royal-navy-heroes-stalk-putins-nuke-fleet-as-it-heads-for-english-channel-after-russian-media-mocked-our-tiny-and-weak-forces/

NAVY ON RED ALERT Moment Russian warships sail for English Channel with Putin poised to test bombs off British coast – as Royal Navy scrambles to intercept
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1981794/putin-to-send-russian-warships-into-english-channel-amid-growing-tension-over-syria-crisis/

If Russia is "testing bombs" right off the British coast, that seems rather excessive to me.

US, UK double team Russia, Syria sanctions to halt Aleppo siege
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/us-uk-double-team-russia-syria-sanctions-halt-aleppo-siege/

UK Pilots In Syria Ordered To Shoot Down “Hostile” Russian Aircraft
The order comes days after UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson pushed for the UK to consider military options against the Russian-backed Assad regime in Syria.

According the Sunday Times, Royal Air Force (RAF) pilots have been given orders to shoot down Russian military jets operating in Syria if they feel that the Russian jets pose a threat: “[…] if a pilot is fired on or believes he is about to be fired on, he can defend himself.”
http://www.mintpressnews.com/uk-pilots-in-syria-given-orders-to-shoot-down-hostile-russian-aircraft/221582/

[onlooker]

UK Pilots In Syria Ordered To Shoot Down “Hostile” Russian Aircraft- Now that is truly scary has this type of action and reaction could trigger WWIII

[AgentR11]

1) Hostile is a great way to say: if the Russians fire at you, you can fire back. It means the UK pilots won't be doing anything but watching Atlanticist jihadis getting bbq'ed. Besides, UK flies nothing that the S300/S400's can't hit; so if they fire on a Russian jet; the UK pilot and jet will die.

2, six) On Russia's carrier group; you have to understand something. Russia has no MISSION for a carrier, but they do want to maintain the proficiency which takes decades to acquire and no amount of money can make it take less. Kutzenov's contribution to the Syrian campaign will be no different than what would occur if they flew down another air wing to fly out of Latakia. Technically, flying from the Kutsenov is more expensive per flight hour... BUT, naval aviation combat flight hours are extremely important for the purpose of maintaining the above proficiency.

In short, Kutzenov is sailing to the Med in order to find some live fire practice targets that actually try to not get hit.

Strategically, its really not a big deal.

nb... for the F35 fans.. there is nothing Russia would like more than to see the F35 exposed to its A2D radars while also in proximity to certified Mark I eyeballs. Nothing kills a stealth design faster than a spotter with a watch and a digitally recorded and time stamped radar image. Do it just a few times, and we might as well have just bought a bunch of A10's and been happy.

[radon1]

Fears of a third global war were further stoked on Thursday after Russia launched from a submarine in the Barents Sea the Topol missile, the fastest in the world, as part of a series of ballistics test.

Topols are not seaborne. Looks like empty fearmongering.

[dissident]

It is getting REALLY SCARY. http://newsmasterapp.com/article/i63407 ... pp_id=1106

Fears of a third global war were further stoked on Thursday after Russia launched from a submarine in the Barents Sea the Topol missile, the fastest in the world, as part of a series of ballistics test. However, on the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered all officials with relatives living overseas to fly them back to Russia because of heightened tensions on the prospect of World War III.

On Wednesday, the We Are Anonymous hacker group claimed Pentagon admitted World War III is imminent,

The submarine either tested the Bulava or the Sineva. Can't be bothered to validate this BS story.

The Bulava is supposedly derived from the Topol. But it looks nothing like it and probably the main thing they share in common is that they use solid rocket fuel. The Sineva is a liquid fuel SLBM.

BTW, this media drivel is driving us to war like the media did during the 1930s. As of 2015 the firing of all ICBMs and SLBMs for testing was announced well in advance to the "enemy" to avoid any knee-jerk nuclear war initiation. Maybe today tests are done without notice but this article does not prove this and have not heard any US official making such a claim.

[Sixstrings]

On Russia's carrier group; you have to understand something. Russia has no MISSION for a carrier, but they do want to maintain the proficiency which takes decades to acquire and no amount of money can make it take less. Kutzenov's contribution to the Syrian campaign will be no different than what would occur if they flew down another air wing to fly out of Latakia. Technically, flying from the Kutsenov is more expensive per flight hour... BUT, naval aviation combat flight hours are extremely important for the purpose of maintaining the above proficiency.

That's some interesting information, that never occurred to me before.

I know I've read about China before, and how they have the old Soviet carrier (remodeld) but yet they don't know how to take off and land on it yet, and apparently it's going to take them years to develop that ability.

In short, Kutzenov is sailing to the Med in order to find some live fire practice targets that actually try to not get hit.

Well gee Agent, that doesn't sound good. You mean hotdogging cowboy stuff, or a real dogfight?

Agent -- what's your opinion of the news in the independent, is Russia really going to make an advance on Aleppo with this fleet headed down there? What do you think the coalition will do, if they do?

[Sixstrings]

To give Russia some credit, if I understand this article correctly, they're going to open corridors for civilians to leave Aleppo:

Syrian Forces Prepare Corridors out of Aleppo
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/russia-accuses-us-led-coalition-strike-killing-syria-42899052

Lavrov and Kerry still talking, doesn't sound like "war:"

Russia's Lavrov, U.S. Kerry discuss Syria by phone - statement

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry discussed the Syria crisis by phone on Thursday, the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.

The two men discussed measures to normalise the situation in the east of Aleppo, the ministry said.
http://news.trust.org/item/20161020180432-m226l/

Article in newsweek:

WILL THE U.S. AND RUSSIA TRADE BLOWS OVER SYRIA?

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry probably invested too much time and effort seeking a deal with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and assumed more Russian goodwill and interest in joint counterterrorism operations than really existed.

Meanwhile, other Russian provocations—cyberattacks related to the U.S. election, mock attacks on U.S. ships and planes in the Baltic and Black Seas and Putin’s withdrawal from a plutonium disposal agreement, for example—might indicate that the Kremlin is deliberately pushing relations to a new low, presumably to pressure the next U.S. president into initiating a new “reset.” ...

But in striking a U.N. humanitarian convoy heading to Aleppo, Russia pushed its cynical game too far. U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Samantha Power called the behavior “barbaric,” and rightly so. Now, Washington isn’t looking for ways to sit at the table with Moscow, but is rather assessing a range of possible forceful measures for breaking the siege.

The collapse of talks caught Moscow by surprise—it had taken the feebleness of U.S. policy in Syria for granted. The United States issued implicit threats to carry out airstrikes on Syrian airbases, prompting Russia to deploy the S-300 surface-to-air missile system in its Tartus naval facility (on top of the S-400 system already deployed at the Latakia airbase). This is escalation in action. ...

The Delusion of “Escalation Dominance”

Earlier in the conflict, Putin saw Russia’s readiness to take greater risks—particularly relative to Europe—as an important political advantage. Now, he has to think very seriously about where this propensity to climb the proverbial “escalation ladder” could really take him.

Syria was the only burning war zone where cooperation once appeared possible, but Moscow has proven that it is not. The indefatigable John Kerry may have to accept the sad fact that, for now, the options for constructive engagement with Moscow have been exhausted.

De-Escalating Without Backing Off

This leaves the outgoing U.S. administration with the tricky task of rescuing Aleppo from further humanitarian catastrophe without triggering a military clash with Russia. ...

Campaign trail rhetoric is worth only so much, but a new president would still have to demonstrate both readiness to contain Russia’s experiments in power projection and commitment to rebuild Syria in the wake of the catastrophe it has experienced.

As for Russia, the administration needs to demonstrate—firmly but not rudely—that its “indispensability” is a hollow pretense, since it is not investing political capital or material resources in peace building.

Putin is actually not that good at brinksmanship and almost certainly prefers de-escalation to confrontation, but he expects the disunited West to back off—and needs to be disabused of that notion.

Moscow can try to act as a spoiler in Syria, but it is already over-stretched, and the limits of its capacity for sustaining the Assad regime will be soon exposed. The United States, already taking the lead on defeating ISIS, will also have to lead a broad coalition to rehabilitate the devastated Syrian war zone after the conflict ends.

Russia cannot be a part of this, and rather must be treated as part of the problem. There will be no more illusions about Mr. Putin’s character, and his attempts to test the will of his fourth U.S. counterpart need to be answered convincingly—in Syria and elsewhere.

Pavel K. Baev is nonresident senior fellow, foreign policy, Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution.
http://www.newsweek.com/will-us-and-russia-trade-blows-over-syria-511653

[radon1]

The humanitarian corridors out of Aleppo have been in place for several days already and Pu extends the closure deadline every other day.

[AgentR11]

Well gee Agent, that doesn't sound good. You mean hotdogging cowboy stuff, or a real dogfight?

Are you living in the 1960's or something? combat flight hours involves flying over ground targets and dropping bombs on them. There are no hotdoggings, nor dogfights involved in modern air combat. Its all about the logistics and management of air assets and munitions to deliver effective combat support and strategically significant destruction on infrastructure.

Even fighter vs fighter doesn't work the way you think it does. Extremely simplified example, F35 flies in to enemy controlled airspace. Eyeball observer reports crossing, interceptor is tasked. The interceptor's purpose is NOT to catch and fire on the F35; rather its to force the F35 to fire early, and thus change is aspect on radar, making it a target. The kill is made by ground launched missiles; almost exclusively.

Now, you may sight the Turkish kill of the Russian jet, as an air to air example. But its a joke. The Turks killed a glorified, helpless, defenseless Cessna. There was no air to air challenge involved there.

Agent -- what's your opinion of the news in the independent, is Russia really going to make an advance on Aleppo with this fleet headed down there? What do you think the coalition will do, if they do?

I'll put it simply. Russia is about to exterminate all life in Eastern Aleppo. And the West won't do anything other than whine loudly. Because anything they CAN do will cost a LOT of NATO pilots and seaman their lives; and destroy billions of dollars of NATO assets. Russia is not Iraq. They will return fire, and their return fire WILL be effective. And with the layered, multisite setup they have in Syria, I'd put good money on them being able to hit and kill F22's without an eyeball spotter; which they also have in abundance.

There's a reason we aren't challenging Russia in Syria.

They have made the price of stopping Russia in Syria, exceed the value of conquering Syria.

[Newfie]

Reminds me of the German fleet in WWI. They wouldn't leave port for fear of being sunk. Of course they eventually all sunk, scuttled. Ironic.

[dissident]

Reminds me of the German fleet in WWI. They wouldn't leave port for fear of being sunk. Of course they eventually all sunk, scuttled. Ironic.

It ain't the early 1900s. All these ships are missile platforms including the aircraft carrier (unlike its US counterparts). If there will be lots of sinking then both sides are going to participate. Make no mistake about this and ignore the public wanking by hate-filled politician and media windbags who have no knowledge and fly on hubris.

Al-Nusra held Syria is not a legal or moral entity that is part of NATO for NATO to beat the war drums. A bunch of bloody tantrum babies who can't stand not to get what they want.

[onlooker]

http://www.thedailysheeple.com/confirme ... -it_102016
CONFIRMED: Russia Is Deploying Its ENTIRE Northern Fleet to Syria for Battle — This Will Be “It”

[SeaGypsy]

They are using the pre election window. Look forward to Aleppo being ground to dust in 2-3 weeks. Stupid Hillary announced her stupid intention for a no fly zone over Syria & Russia is going full on in response, before she has the power to do anything. Once she is in, if she goes ahead with her no fly zone, Russia will sink everything the US has in the region, then it's anyone's guess who hits the big red button first.

[onlooker]

They are using the pre election window. Look forward to Aleppo being ground to dust in 2-3 weeks. Stupid Hillary announced her stupid intention for a no fly zone over Syria & Russia is going full on in response, before she has the power to do anything. Once she is in, if she goes ahead with her no fly zone, Russia will sink everything the US has in the region, then it's anyone's guess who hits the big red button first.

Oh my Sea, it is getting all too real in Syria uh?

[AgentR11]

Sea. Relax. Hillary will declare a "no fly zone", and the Russians will ignore it. And US forces won't be firing on Russian jets. Russians will keep right on bombing, declared NFZ or not. Hillary will then rant eloquently about the need for more sanctions; which everyone with a brain knows are completely irrelevant to Russian military capability, nor are they any threat to domestic stability since Russia is both a food calorie exporter, and an energy exporter.

Its a way for HRC to sound tough on Russia... and not do anything.

[SeaGypsy]

I agree Agent & have said the same on other forums. Why I call it stupid is it's continuing the same stupidity Obama has carried on with. Threatening Russia when it really can't do anything. Using head lopping torture freaks as proxies, generally not operating in a way which makes any sense.