[EdwinSm]

While I think the population of the world will shrink on the down side of Peak Oil, I have difficulty seeing just how this will play out. I guess that there will be numerous problems arising, each of which will contribute a small amount to the declining population [lack of insulin for diabetic patients is an example].

One thing that over a generation or two that could have a significant impact is the effect of Caesarean sections, where according to the BBC

The regular use of Caesarean sections is having an impact on human evolution, say scientists......

Researchers estimate cases where the baby cannot fit down the birth canal have increased from 30 in 1,000 in the 1960s to 36 in 1,000 births today.

Historically, these genes would not have been passed from mother to child as both would have died in labour.

Researchers in Austria say the trend is likely to continue....

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-38210837

This means that (those surviving) could expect about 4% of mothers to die in child birth from this problem. This is a high number, which with other complications, could make increasing the population a deadly risk factor.

[Cog]

Apart from births where a C-section is necessary because of the narrowness of the birth canal, it is an overused procedure. Often done for purposes that have nothing to do with a healthy delivery. Risk aversion by the doctor so they don't get sued. OB-Gyns are way too quick to pull the handle on a normal delivery. Time is money.

[Pops]

Jan. 7, 2009
In the last decade, the number of cesarean sections — or C-sections — performed in America has nearly doubled. In fact, in the country today, approximately 30 percent of all babies born in the United States are delivered by C-section.

A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine finds that more than a third of C-section are performed too early -- before 39 weeks -- putting newborns at greater risk for a variety of health problems.

While many of these C-sections are medically indicated, the study found that more than half are done on an elective basis. 36 percent of women having elective C-sections scheduled their delivery before the recommended 39 weeks, making babies more likely to visit the intensive care unit, have infections and develop respiratory distress.

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=3291512

The story blames moms who want baby born on aunt Thelma's birthday but neglects to mention that C-section is a more profitable procedure. If you have a shiny new OR just sitting there you need a way to pay for it... don't forget, medicine is a piece-work trade.

But yeah, it's hard to tell what the next bottleneck might be. on a 1-10 scale of probability I'd guess:
an impact = 1 (low)
an unfamiliar, resistant bug =2
famine =2 (likely but regional)
nukes =2 (with a bullet)
GW =1-9 (really no idea)
The Pill =9

We are just passing the end of fertility of the last women born before the pill. Meaning the entire population of potential moms grew up in the age of effective female contraception. PO.com is a sausage fest, we boys talk about war and guns and starvation but I don't think we quite understan how big a deal the Pill is.



BTW, insulin is pretty low tech nowadays, $25 a month generic at walmart and a replacement needle now and again but I get the point.
Yeah, I know, walmart...

[Ibon]

Cog and Pops both good posts.

Average price of vaginal birth in the USA $9,000
Average price of C section birth in the USA $15,000

What is billed is in the quotes below. What the insurance companies actually pay out is the above figures

Other parts of the world? About $ 2,000 - $ 3000 total

The average total price charged for pregnancy and newborn care was about $30,000 for a vaginal delivery and $50,000 for a C-section, with commercial insurers paying out an average of $18,329 and $27,866, the report found.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/01/healt ... d=all&_r=0

My oldest daughter was born in Switzerland. Total cost was $ 1,500. We paid zero. Visits to our house with prenatal care every month through out pregnancy. In house visits for 3 months after birth.

Our youngest daughter was born in Manila Philippines. Total cost without any insurance was $ 150.00 Yes that is one hundred and fifety dollars. I did not leave out any zeros.

The US health care industry is a travesty. As I mentioned on another thread, this is not exclusive fault of the insurance companies.

Who sets the price on procedures and why so high. That should be the topic of a thread.

[Plantagenet]

C-section is ... an overused procedure. Often done for purposes that have nothing to do with a healthy delivery. Risk aversion by the doctor so they don't get sued. OB-Gyns are way too quick to pull the handle on a normal delivery.

The fear of lawsuits is a huge factor leading to an increase in C sections and higher costs in the US health care system.

One of the main examples of this effect is former D presidential candidate John Edwards. Edwards got filthy rich suing ob/gyn doctors after children were born with birth defects. The birth defects were congenital, but Edwards courted sued anyway. He specialized in pretending he could "channel" what the baby was thinking as it was being born, and he would act out his little charade in front of jury after jury, winning huge awards as the jurors broke into tears hearing the tiny helpless baby (actually John Edwards in a squeaky voice) crying out in pain as the big mean doctor ripped them from their mother's wombs.

Edwards became so rich he bought an election and won a Senator's seat, and he ran for president twice, almost winning the D nomination.

TO this day the Ds fight against tort reform that would stop conmen like Edwards from suing doctors.

Cheers!