[evilgenius]

Trump aside, and that is big aside, 2017 comes to us with a host of challenges. I can think of several things that may happen that could change the face of the new year, or soon after. I'd like to list a few of the ones I'm thinking about. I want to suggest these to get people thinking, not necessarily about these, but about how easily the world can change.

The Arctic: it could achieve a far lower ice pack minimum in 2017 than any of the previous record low years. This could have a knock on climate change effect. World weather could change in a hurry.

The Pacific Rim: the ring of fire is very active right now. The San Andreas could go. If either Los Angeles or San Francisco are involved in the kind of quake that would follow, the imagination of the Western US, at the very least, would be captivated by it for at least a couple of years.

The Ukraine: Putin could step up his efforts to gain political control of the country in a test of Donald Trump. Trump hasn't shown an ability to work well with the CIA. He could get snowed under as Putin regains political control of the Ukraine.

The Middle East: Israel could become emboldened by the perceived weakness of the Arab countries and attempt to take territory that it believes belongs to it by right. This could be the West Bank, or parts of Syria or Lebanon. The US, Trump's going whole hog behind what the Israelis say, could actually be involved. This could end in disaster for Israel.

So, you see, I've picked some potential turning points for 2017. My picks are from both political and natural realms. There's a whole bunch more that I could have said, but I started this so that everybody else could have a place to talk about their own conjectures, and receive some comment.

[vox_mundi]

...The Arctic: it could achieve a far lower ice pack minimum in 2017 than any of the previous record low years. This could have a knock on climate change effect. World weather could change in a hurry.

No arguments there. If (when) climate changes in the worlds bread baskets - things will get real simple - real fast.

... The Pacific Rim: the ring of fire is very active right now. The San Andreas could go. If either Los Angeles or San Francisco are involved in the kind of quake that would follow, the imagination of the Western US, at the very least, would be captivated by it for at least a couple of years.

Add the Cascadia Fault (Washington State, Oregon, BC) - estimated loss >$1 trillion - > 10,000 casualties. https://around.uoregon.edu/content/flat ... ys-uo-team

(PDF) Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami Exercise Scenario 2016

... The Ukraine: Putin could step up his efforts to gain political control of the country in a test of Donald Trump. Trump hasn't shown an ability to work well with the CIA. He could get snowed under as Putin regains political control of the Ukraine.

Add the rise of ultra-nationalism & Islamaphobia in places like Poland, Greece, Italy, Hungary, France, USA etc.

... The Middle East: Israel could become emboldened by the perceived weakness of the Arab countries and attempt to take territory that it believes belongs to it by right. This could be the West Bank, or parts of Syria or Lebanon. The US, Trump's going whole hog behind what the Israelis say, could actually be involved. This could end in disaster for Israel.

Add total collapse in Yemen (ground water and food will run out next year). The Saudis are looking shaky also.

Expect a 'green light' if Israel wants to nuke Iran.

Also the Philippines is now in play. (re: China)

I've been waiting for the new Global Trends 2035 Report from the Intel community and it's running 2 weeks late. A new Global Trends report is published every four years following the U.S. presidential election.

Considering the heir apparent, it may need an extensive rewrite.

gt2035-the-next-global-trends-report-t72290.html


The Road Ahead ...

[vox_mundi]

Council on Foreign Relations’ (CFR) ninth annual Preventive Priorities Survey identifies seven top potential flashpoints for the United States in the year ahead

The survey identified seven "top tier" conflicts in 2017:

Impact: High; Likelihood: Moderate

- a deliberate or unintended military confrontation between Russia and NATO members, stemming from assertive Russian behavior in Eastern Europe
- a severe crisis in North Korea caused by nuclear or intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) weapons testing, a military provocation, or internal political instability
- a highly disruptive cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure
- a mass casualty terrorist attack on the U.S. homeland or a treaty ally by either a foreign or homegrown terrorist(s).

Impact: Moderate; Likelihood: High

- increased violence and instability in Afghanistan resulting from a continued strengthening of the Taliban insurgency and potential government collapse
- the intensification of violence between Turkey and various Kurdish armed groups within Turkey and in neighboring countries
- the intensification of the civil war in Syria resulting from increased external support for warring parties, including military intervention by outside powers

Among the second-tier risks in this year’s survey are violent civil disorder stemming from the political and economic crises in Venezuela, which the respondents considered highly likely but low-impact for the United States, and an armed confrontation between China and its neighbors over disputed territory in the East or South China Seas, which was deemed unlikely but high-impact. Stares said he was surprised that possible clashes between China and U.S. treaty allies like Japan and the Philippines, which could draw the United States into a fight with its most formidable rival, weren’t thought more likely, and that the further breakup of Iraq fell from a first-tier risk in past years to a second-tier risk this year.

Other second-tier risks include turmoil in the European Union caused by the refugee crisis; a military confrontation between India and Pakistan over a terrorist attack or the contested region of Kashmir; a deterioration of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; and greater political fragmentation in Libya. The coming year could also bring more violence from militant groups in Pakistan, Russian-backed militias and Ukrainian security forces in eastern Ukraine, and various foreign and domestic factions in Yemen’s civil war.

The respondents also pointed to two contingencies that didn’t show up in past surveys: political instability in the Philippines from opposition to the new president’s brutal war on drugs, among other policies, and in Turkey from the president’s growing authoritarianism following a failed coup against him. Turkey, for example, could witness widespread protests or another coup attempt. “Sometimes [U.S. officials] look to stable authoritarian governments as being good partners for certain things—they’re predictable and so on—but there is obviously also a downside risk if they are subject to domestic political challenges and unrest,” Stares said.

The third tier of risks features scenarios that might have significant humanitarian and geopolitical consequences, but in countries of limited strategic importance to the United States. Among these are political unrest in Burundi, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Thailand, and Colombia; increased violence from al-Shabab in Somalia and Boko Haram and other militant groups in Nigeria; a deepening of the civil war in South Sudan; a military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region; and upheaval linked to the succession of Zimbabwe’s longtime dictator, Robert Mugabe.

Respondents also wrote in scenarios that didn’t appear among the 30 listed contingencies, including some that seem plausible as outcomes of Trump’s emerging foreign policy: mounting tensions between China and Taiwan; economic and political volatility in Mexico resulting from U.S. trade and immigration policies; and a confrontation with Iran over the collapse of the Obama administration’s nuclear agreement with Iran and other world powers—a deal Trump has repeatedly criticized.

CPA’s Global Conflict Tracker plots ongoing conflicts on an interactive map paired with background information, CFR analysis, and news updates.

[Plantagenet]

The report expresses concern about a Russian cyberattack on the USA. But what about Obama's threats to launch a cyberattack on Russia?

Just yesterday an angry Obama held a TV press conference and publicly threatened to launch a US cyberattack on Russia.

I don't think Putin is just going to sit there and do nothing if Obama goes off the rails and carries out his threat and attacks Russia before he leaves office.

[DesuMaiden]

Because of anthropogenic cliamte change, peak oil, the depletion of many essential resources and many other factors, the collapse of industrial civilization is just around the corner. The Syrian refugee crisis is getting worse. Europe is going to get overwhelmed by the sheer number of refugees coming into its borders. Local/national/global famines will soon strike because of peak oil and climate change reducing our ability to produce and distribute enough food to our ever growing population of humans. The depletion of other key resources means the manufacture and distribution of virtually every product greatly diminishes or becomese impossible in the future. For example, the depletion of fossil fuels and rare Earth elements to the point of exhaustion makes the manufacture of electronic/telecommunication devices impossible in the not-to-distant future, which will result in lthe loss of Satellite-based telecommunications and more importantly the lost of huge amounts of digitially stored information. Water tables fall, and clean fresh water becomes increasingly scarce in many places in the world. Top soils continue to be eroded at a far faster rate than they are being naturally accumulated. Major species of lifeforms continue to be wiped out by humankind's relentless destruction of the natural world. The biosphere is completely falling apart, and this will be mankind's undoing and downfall too.

Yet despite the impending demise of industrial civilization, people seem to be happy maxxing out their credit cards at the shopping malls, buying mostly useless junk that they don't need, and most of these people seem completely unaware that their industrial way of life is soon coming to an end.

[Cog]

2017 will be one of the most prosperous years the world has ever known.

[Cog]

Everyone


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74BzSTQCl_c

[C8]

Add the rise of ultra-nationalism & Islamaphobia in places like Poland, Greece, Italy, Hungary, France, USA etc.

If you want an explanation as to why Trump won, look no further than the "Islam as victim" left wing view in Vox's quote- then note that an Islamic terrorist just ran a truck through Germans at a shopping outlet tonight killing many.

The left simply sees any fear of Muslims as illegitimate despite live "on the ground" actions. Voters noted the denial of reality.

[Newfie]

I don't see 2017 as a special year. Each year we build the house of cards higher, so each year it is less stable than the last. But when it will tumble? Not a clue.

[Ibon]

Over half the posts on this site are related to the rails that we are on heading us in the wrong direction.....suggesting that we need to get off the rails. The other half of the posts are forecasting the potential risks that will get us off the rails. In almost the same breath that we say we need to get off the rails we turn around and then fear events that will do just that....

Sometimes you have to wonder, what is it that we really want?

Are we committing a collective act of sabotage because of the cognitive dissonance resulting from this conundrum?

It's like the snake swallowing its own tail........you build resilience by weakening the resilience that was built up in the first place supposedly to build resilience.

[onlooker]

Well, not to sound trite or too blunt, I would say yes, we do have a legitimate reason to be apprehensive about the dissolution of Civilization as we know it. As imperfect as it is, it does allow for us to attain our basic necessities and to boot some leisure and entertainment as well. So, I think the posts reflect this underlying tangible uneasiness. Lack of food, warmth, medical attention and security certainly are causes for concern. We are not the majority, the majority like to hide their head in the sand like the ostrich and pretend nothing bad is going on. At least that is my two cents.

[Ibon]

We are not the majority, the majority like to hide their head in the sand like the ostrich and pretend nothing bad is going on. At least that is my two cents.

This might be a bit or ramble and only partially coherent as I am trying to put some thoughts down that may not be well thought out so please bear with me

It is actually the majority I am referring to and how the collective can react as a function of this conundrum. Let's just take the last presidential election as an example. Your average Joe does not understand the deeper systemic reasons why his standard of living has stagnated or declined in the past 30 years as he struggles to stay on the rails. He chooses to vote for someone who on one hand he believes will improve his situation while there are unconscious motivations of sabotage at work as well.

The Brexit vote is another example.

I think the rise of Islamic terrorism represents an expression of this same conundrum in a completely different cultural context. The chronic unemployment in islamic countries, the oligarchs, the Saudi royalty, egyptian military, ayatollahs in Iran, the disastrous geopolitical interventions by Russia (Aghanistan/Syria) or the west (US invasion of Iraq, Aghfanistan). Israel/Palastine conflict. All of these forces are the real source of extremism not the religious texts in an old dusty book. And so there is in the collective an impulse toward sabotage at the same time as one dreams of redemption.

The failure of climate change accords during the past 25 years. The denial still so strong against such overwhelming evidence has part of its roots in this same conundrum. A collective impulse toward sabotage is at work here as well, screw the consequences of climate change as long as we can stay on the rails that we unconsciously all know will just create greater instabilities.

This is just a theme I am milking. That when industrial civilization gets stuck in the quagmire of forces that move it toward decline there are impulses in the collective toward sabotage at the same time as there are forces that try to prevent it. A grand push pull. We know we need to go off the rails but we resist it as well. This conundrum leads to decisions that sabotage the current paradigm whatever cultural context that might be.

Related to the theme of this thread I think this impulse toward sabotage will gain importance as a force that will throw our industrial civilization off the rails. It is not so much the physical reality of climate change or a global pandemic or geopolitical wars or global financial collapse. All these events will occur but underneath all of this there is force gaining in the collective toward sabotage.

Contrast just for a moment how hopeful society felt say 40 years ago when we had the collective confidence that we would mitigate some of the systemic problems that were already known back then. That confidence is dying fast and what replaces this is the push pull of a death wish and sabotage on one hand and a fear and desire to keep the wobbly train of a dying civilization on the rails. I think this collective force of sabotage will play an increasing role in defining the trajectory of events moving forward.

Expect more irrational responses to real threats moving forward because of this impulse toward sabotage.

[onlooker]

To dissect more what Ibon is saying I would add the following:
The more nuanced problem as I see it is that people in general have no vision as to what can possibly replace our current Industrial Civilization. We hear claims of a Technotopia, of a Permaculture culture etc. However, as a collective we do not seem to have a Plan B or Plan C. I submit that is because no such other options exist. We cannot gracefully transition at this point to anything resembling our current culture and modern civilization. Not in mass. So here on this site, we have some who are either individually or in small communities quietly preparing to live without the modern amenities we take for granted. So I suggest also that the specifics of this sabotage will involve people who for whatever reason feel disenfranchised or outcasts of the System. Or people like the ones here who by not participating are in effect sabotaging the System. As the System begins to sputter even more, more people will become aware and feel like on the outside looking in and will disengage and/or rebel. These increasing numbers of people who we already see, will be the ones seeking and facilitating sabotage.
But the biggest problem to try and control you can say the severity and speed of descent and collapse is the huge populations in all countries and the lack of some infrastructure framework to transition too. When the age of Oil comes to an end, that will be shocking to our Civilization as we do not have a sufficiently robust alternative energy matrix. So as the Economies become inadequate, how will modern man attend to his/her basic necessities? Will we fragment into small groups in an attempt to subsist or will Govt. continue to play some role into the further off future. These are questions that seem to be as yet unclear. I do know that as always in times of turmoil, we have a choice of whether we wish to work together or against each other.

[Ibon]

Or people like the ones here who by not participating are in effect sabotaging the System. As the System begins to sputter even more, more people will become aware and feel like on the outside looking in and will disengage and/or rebel. These increasing numbers of people who we already see, will be the ones seeking and facilitating sabotage.

Yes. Would a really intelligent person with integrity ever want to subject themselves to being president or a leader. Smart people are withdrawing. Egomaniacs are attracted to positions of power. This is exact example of a society moving toward sabotage. Smart folks are disengaging. The maniacs are attracted to a new status quo of unconscious sabotage.