[Outcast_Searcher]

I wanted to do the right thing this time around and get a PHEV or at least a hybrid.

I ran into some time constraints, wanting to provide a reliable vehicle in the short term to my pregnant niece and her husband so they didn't need to go way into debt for the "nice safe new" car they no doubt would have bought before the baby comes. (And given the emotion of the new baby, reliability and perceived safety were paramount, understandably).

So I offered to give them my like-new 2015 Corolla with 8500 miles I can give them and come in safely under the $14,000 gift limit requiring a whopping 65% in gift taxes if you exceed that (as I understand it -- thus giving them a new car wasn't a good option). My only condition, they drive that for several years (if it stays reliable), not sell it quickly so they can go into lots of debt to buy a $30,000 to $40,000 new fancier car. (Is that unreasonable? I'm trying to teach some values here). The back seat can take the baby seat just fine, and the car is reasonably safe, esp. for its moderate size.

So they accepted. Great. I wish I'd had some help like that when starting out -- good cars are expensive.

So now my issue, obviously, is getting a reliable replacement vehicle in the short term. No more waiting around a year or three for the PHEV of my dreams, for example.

I'll explain why my two favorite choices didn't work out, and why I think that this kind of thing stops MANY buyers, even if just financial payback isn't their primary goal.

And mods, if this doesn't deserve its own thread and is in the wrong place, please feel free to move my posts to the right thread. I was hoping that a good conversation, relevant data, cars, solutions, etc. might emerge from this and help other would-be hybrid/PHEV buyers in the next few years.

[Outcast_Searcher]

OK, so if the Prius Prime didn't work out (see below) getting a Camry hybrid was my backup plan. At least it would get "good" mileage, and be a reliable safe car.

What I didn't like when comparing that to a regular Camry:

1). I didn't like the relative value. Cheapest transition to the hybrid version would cost me $4000ish more, plus extra taxes.
2). The magazines' road testing put the real world MPG a good 5-6 miles below the EPA claims. (Not surprising, given my real world city mileage vs EPA claims in multiple cars over the years. It's like for the EPA, long traffic lights, etc. must not exist). So, real world, only saving under 10 mpg overall. For a massive price, plus other things I didn't like (below).
3). I couldn't get the options I wanted in the hybrid, without spending a fortune -- like $8ish thousand more, and getting lots of stuff I didn't want.
4). I didn't like some of the options chosen for the hybrid compared to those for the normal car. And they didn't provide alternatives (unless you go do it yourself, custom, for lots of bucks).
5). Some of this may have been alleviated if I had time to order and wait -- though if I ordered I lost much of my leverage to negotiate the 17%ish discount I just got on the regular Camry I just bought. (I just made what I thought was a low-ball offer and they accepted. I apparently offered too much - I hate that aspect of buying a car).
6). And in the mix, I had to consider the extra parts for the whole hybrid system and especially the traction battery, the likely extra cost of repairs if I kept the car my typical dozen years, and losing a LOT of the trunk space due to the battery.
7). At current gas prices, the payback would be absolutely horrendous. I only drive 4000 miles a year. So I'd only save maybe 70 gallons a year or $175ish at $2.50 a gallon. So to recoup the $4000 plus would take at least twice as long as I'd own the car.

Bottom line, I don't think you can expect the middle class to put up with all the disadvantages unless they drive a LOT, like 15,000 miles or more a year -- unless gasoline prices rise meaningfully.

Note: Before I actually dove in and took a good look, I'd assumed things would be much better for the hybrid than they were. I think there tends to be too much marketing hype, and not enough real world analysis of the trade-offs. Inaccurate EPA MPG estimates are no help.

Obviously to the hard core green that wants to burn less gasoline at ANY price, they'll overlook all that, and good for them. But that's a small percentage of the population, unless and until a BIG CO2 tax is added to the cost of burning FF's in the US, which I don't see happening for at least a decade, probably much longer.

[AdamB]

So now my issue, obviously, is getting a reliable replacement vehicle in the short term. No more waiting around a year or three for the PHEV of my dreams, for example.

I'll explain why my two favorite choices didn't work out, and why I think that this kind of thing stops MANY buyers, even if just financial payback isn't their primary goal.

Energy expert Amy Jaffe drives a Ford C-Max plugin gas/electric, my wife has the same drivetrain in her Fusion (34 mpg at 80 mph on interstate, 45 mpg normal <70 mph, 55 mpg hilly secondaries at 60 mph, or on the flat with a light tailwind, infinite gas mileage around town on electric for 20 miles, 250-300 mpg normal suburban usage as the wife's daily commuter), and my aunt liked it so uch after a single drive she went and purchased a 2 year old CMax version, like 15K, for about $15G's, and a Ford certified used warranty for 100K.

They are still available, and except for not having a spare tire, work quite well.

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/

[Outcast_Searcher]

OK, so for my foray into the Prius Prime.

1). For central KY, I was told there none around. None to drive and none to look at. I'd have to order one and wait to even see it. Not a deal breaker, but definitely a solid negative. If I weren't in a time bind I'd arrange to see/drive one in another state, then order it etc.
2). I needed to rewire part of the 60 year old house and pay for the proper GFIC dedicated circuit for the carport. This I was willing to do -- but it is a real world constraint. This for level 1 charging (5.5 hours at 120V, 12 amps). For level 2, I'd need a 20 amp dedicated circuit at 240 volts, and a car charging kit, and to buy my own charging cord setup, as only level 1 is included with the car. I can live without the level 2, but at that level the costs really start adding up. So I was willing to do this, but for many, this is a real issue if they want to charge at home.
3). Reading the owner's manual, they had strongly worded stuff about safety, not walking on or pulling on the charging cord, fire risk, things going wrong with the charging cord, etc. I have a carport, exposed to the elements, not a garage. So now we're talking about me having to have signs/barricades for safety (and legal protection) when I charge, and worry about a child ignoring the signs/cones, etc. I had to worry about moisture. Starting to look like real world -- this is MUCH more difficult for everyone without a garage which doesn't get wet.
4). Toyota has the charging port on the wrong side of the car. It seems like front left fender and right rear fender (or rear of the car) are the two main choices. Right rear just makes the whole problem much worse for weather, cord exposure, cord length, etc. So now I'd have to back in. From my heavily parked and busy street and house just over the crest of a big hill -- NO WAY do I want to risk trying to back in regularly.
5). So 1-4 was more than I wanted to put up with -- even before I looked at all I had to give up via cost, space, options, appeal of the car and drivability, etc.
6). Even though I love Toyota durability, with a new model year, I was leery of potential issues and hassle. Another constraint of needing to hurry.

...

So for me, better to wait until next time. Many more options, better comparative costing, knowing more about the technology, etc. should only improve.

And I guess I could have just bought a regular Prius. But it seemed like such a letdown from the cool technology I was hoping for. And it still was going to cost meaningfully more than much more car I was getting with the Camry.

I decided that given my self-imposed constraint of only driving 4000 miles a year, I'd let that be enough. My carbon footprint overall is still relatively small -- I was just hoping that shrinking the gasoline portion of that meaningfully was going to be easier by now, after all the hype.

Live and learn. But again, all the financial issues could be quelled in one fell swoop with a large CO2 tax on FF transportaion fuels, so it's not like society is (yet) coming to a different overall conclusion about this.

[Outcast_Searcher]

So now my issue, obviously, is getting a reliable replacement vehicle in the short term. No more waiting around a year or three for the PHEV of my dreams, for example.

I'll explain why my two favorite choices didn't work out, and why I think that this kind of thing stops MANY buyers, even if just financial payback isn't their primary goal.

Energy expert Amy Jaffe drives a Ford C-Max plugin gas/electric, ....

They are still available, and except for not having a spare tire, work quite well.

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/deta ... /overview/

And for those with a garage to safely and conveniently plug in, and OK with Ford quality and durability and service, that might be a decent or even good option. I fit none of those constraints given my situation and experience with American car companies.

[ROCKMAN]

Outcast - And even for those that ignore the negatives and just want to pat thenselves on the back - they still aren't improving the overall system. And I don't mean that their choices are just making a tiny improvement in the system: the system is still getting worse even with their "sacrifices". And if alt vehicle sales increased 10X tomorrow it still wouldn't change the path we're on: last year 80+ million new ICE's took to road to join the 1.2 BILLION already out there. We are NOT in a transition away from GHG generating motoring...we're digging deeper into that hole we started 100 years ago.

There isn't even an extremely unlikely alt vehicle fantasy being offered that changes the fact that more ICE's are entering the rolling fleet every year. And even if every new vehicle next year got a 120 mpg we would still be increasing the total amount of GHG generated from transportation. Circumstances not getting worse as fast as they had been is not the same as circumstances getting better.

[KaiserJeep]

Count me among the believers in true EV technology. I intend to invest in a pure EV after my next move, and to plan provision for charging it in my off-grid home. It will most likely be either a Chevy Bolt or a Tesla Model 3. I am hoping for an AWD vehicle, which will probably be introduced first by Tesla.

Rockman, I don't see you commenting much on the remaining length of time we will enjoy affordable petroleum liquid fuels. Is it because you believe we truly do not know, or for some other reason? If you don't mind me asking, what is your prediction for the "End of Oil"?

[vtsnowedin]

Outcast:
I would not fret over it too awful much. The Toyota Camry you bought will serve you well and just keeping the tire pressures right will probably do as much to conserve fuel as the hybrid options really deliver.
We have had several Toyota's over the years both new and used. All have given good service and one Camry saved my youngest daughters butt when she fell asleep while driving home from college and crashed into the stone foundation of an old mill. Car totaled and damaged to the point that both front doors could not be opened but air bags and seat belts left her with just a case of belt rash.
Enjoy your car and keep the oil changed and you will get a nice trade in price when you are tired of it.

[ROCKMAN]

KJ - "Count me among the believers in true EV technology." So you believe the EV "revolution" has reduced GHG emissions from the transportation sector? Or at least will in the near future? Perhaps you didn't pay close enough attention to my post: I said nothing about EV technology. My comment was really as simple as it seems: we are adding millions of new ICE's to the planet yearly. Which means that regardless of better fuel economy or the number of EV's sold the amount of GHG coming from the transportation sector increases significantly every year. You can believe in EV tech or anything else you want but that won't change that FACT. Until EV's sales decrease the total number of new ICE's being sold y-o-y the situation is only getting worse. As I said before: whistling past the graveyard is one thing...but pretending the graveyard doesn't exist is childishly delusional.

As far as predicting the "End of Oil"...I don't because it's a meaningless phrase. IOW it means different things to different folks. Which means it has no meaning. If you mean the anticipation of bad things developing as a result of fossil fuel consumption and it's future? Hell yes...for more then 40 years I've expected the adverse effects to the climate, global economies and geopolitical conflicts.

How could hunting for fossil fuels for a living not clearly lead to such expectations. Likewise since my first degree wasn't in geology but Earth Sciences how could the effect of GHG on the climate not be obvious. As an undergraduate I studied numerous examples of far worse episodes then what we are now experiencing.

Most here are newbies to the entire dynamic. A very few have been tapped decades ago into the path we're on.

[KaiserJeep]

By the term "believer in EV technology", what I meant was that I would have an EV in the garage of my off-grid home, and a means of charging it without burning anything, a wind turbine or solar PV or both. When the petroleum fuels are too expensive to use, I'll still have a means to haul my aging carcass around.

I realize that "too expensive to use" is not very precise, but there are too many variables to be precise. Gas at $10/g is not a problem, but around $25/g I start to feel pain, and $100/g is probably a non-starter.

Now having said that, I remember in the 1960's, my father thought gas at $0.25/g was too expensive to tolerate.

As for your angst about what you do, forget it. Excessive fossil fuel consumption is but a symptom of human overpopulation. Humans are over populated because that is what primates do, they consume everything within their grasp, because that is how nature made us.