GoghGoner wrote:Another wrinkle if we have a cold winter is that coal inventories are also at multi-year lows. Plants have refused to keep stocks up depending completely on natural gas supply forecasts.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:GoghGoner wrote:Another wrinkle if we have a cold winter is that coal inventories are also at multi-year lows. Plants have refused to keep stocks up depending completely on natural gas supply forecasts.
That isn't good per se, but at least we still have working coal mines and railroads to produce and supply power stations domestically. We are a net importer of natural gas already, and our main suppliers is Canada which also uses more in bitter winters for internal use possibly reducing their export capacity right when we need it most.
yellowcanoe wrote:Tanada wrote:GoghGoner wrote:Another wrinkle if we have a cold winter is that coal inventories are also at multi-year lows. Plants have refused to keep stocks up depending completely on natural gas supply forecasts.
That isn't good per se, but at least we still have working coal mines and railroads to produce and supply power stations domestically. We are a net importer of natural gas already, and our main suppliers is Canada which also uses more in bitter winters for internal use possibly reducing their export capacity right when we need it most.
The proportionality clause in NAFTA, which was almost certainly carried forward into the new trade agreement, prohibits Canada from arbitrarily reducing exports of fossil fuels to the US without a proportional reduction in domestic consumption.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Natural-gas futures rocketed higher Wednesday, settling at their highest price since February 2014 and logging one of the best days in years, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
“The move higher in natural gas prices is mainly a result of a 15-year low in stockpiles combined with cold weather forecasts for large portion of the U.S. and record exports of natural gas,” said Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares.
coffeeguyzz wrote:Pennsylvania just released September production, 524 Bcf ... 17.4 Bcfd.
This is an exit rate of 6 Trillion cubic feet per year.
Combined with Ohio and West Virginia Utica, Marcellus and Upper Devonian formations, the Appalachian Basin will produce over 8 Tcf by 2019, maybe even by 2018.
This is about 1/4 to 1/6 the total gas in place of several of the touted eastern Mediterranean finds these past years.
Two top wells - the McGavin 6 and Howell 8 have hit the 11Bcf mark at 14 months online.
Using $3 HH, each well has already grossed about 35 million bucks.
When the USGS gets around to assessing these plays, it will be shown to be larger than South Pars/North Dome, which is vastly larger than any other reservoir on the planet.
Appalachia Rising!!
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
A Tampa, Florida based options trading firm, OptionSellers, went dark this weekend after it informed its clients of a “catastrophic loss event,” resulting from a short squeeze on the natural gas market, ZeroHedge reports, citing parts of the letter.
According to the letter, the short squeeze took place at a rate “truly beyond anything I [president James Cordier] have seen in my career. It overran our risk control systems and left us at the mercy of the market.”
In November, natural gas prices rose well beyond market expectations in October. With the release of the Short-Term Energy Outlook each month, EIA publishes market-implied confidence intervals for natural gas prices using the value of futures and options contracts. Based on the value of natural gas futures and options contracts for December 2018 delivery traded during the five-day period ending November 1, the implicit 95% confidence interval encompassed prices between $2.63/MMBtu and $3.95/MMBtu. These intervals suggested a less than 2% chance that natural gas futures for December delivery would rise to more than $4/MMBtu. However, on November 28, the contract for December delivery closed at $4.72/MMBtu.
GoghGoner wrote:Here is some EIA followup on their forecast and the recent run-up in prices. It has been a month of this higher price level, I am just wondering if the Red Queen hasn't taken over. Just like price forecasts, supply forecasts can be wildly wrong and when the market thinks NG supply forecasts are wrong, we will see the next round of fireworks in this market. I have no idea when that will happen and doubt if it is going to happen over the new few months but it could. Mr. Market would be shocked once again.In November, natural gas prices rose well beyond market expectations in October. With the release of the Short-Term Energy Outlook each month, EIA publishes market-implied confidence intervals for natural gas prices using the value of futures and options contracts. Based on the value of natural gas futures and options contracts for December 2018 delivery traded during the five-day period ending November 1, the implicit 95% confidence interval encompassed prices between $2.63/MMBtu and $3.95/MMBtu. These intervals suggested a less than 2% chance that natural gas futures for December delivery would rise to more than $4/MMBtu. However, on November 28, the contract for December delivery closed at $4.72/MMBtu.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
EIA projects that U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity will reach 8.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by the end of 2019, making it the third largest in the world behind Australia and Qatar. Currently, U.S. LNG export capacity stands at 3.6 Bcf/d, and it is expected to end the year at 4.9 Bcf/d as two new liquefaction units (called trains) become operational.
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