GHung wrote:Outcast_Searcher wrote:And what is your source for global oil demand dropping by 2025?
It was alluded to in the article:
In a monthly report, the Paris-based body said it had revised down its demand forecasts for both this year and next by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d).
Fuel efficiency and rising vehicle electrification will bring a peak in oil used for passenger vehicles, even with a doubling of the auto fleet to two-billion vehicles.
Christopher Kuplen, BofAML's Research Analyst, argues that since 55 per cent of global oil is consumed in transportation, of which more than half by passenger vehicles, the demand for oil would eventually fall.
Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.
1). As if a roughly .1% drop in the demand forecast is significant. Feel free to cling to that, even as in the real world oil demand increases meaningfully every single year when there isn't a deep global recession.
2). It's not like the auto fleet will double by 2023, now is it? So this is talking about an eventual date, more like 2040.
3). 55% of global oil used for transportation sounds about right. "Eventually" isn't 2023. In the mean time, something like 60 million ICE's will be added to the global fleet annually, and something like 2 million EV's or so. Only in your dreams will a net addition of nearly 400 million ICE cars by 2023 cause an oil demand drop, given how slowly the efficiency of the global ICE fleet rises.
4). Gee, if I only had a dollar for every number free, nonsensical prediction by some economist re the oil price or demand. Given point 3, this forecast looks ludicrous next to every forecast I've seen recently aside from the useless ETP theory.
So, your source is about of the quality I would have expected. Again, at least the IEA and EIA use science and math.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.