Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 15:33:48

"no debts, no mortgage, no real ambition" Me too

And well put, OS

I put the time my meager savings give me to serve healthy, high-quality meals to the homeless and others in the community. Lots of vets come through, and are honored for their service. Lots of Trump supporters, as well as socialists, anarchists, and pretty much every other political, spiritual, and ethnic 'persuasion'.

I do something toward this pretty much every day. Haven't tallied the total, but it must be more than a part-time job by now. Probably 30+ hours a week. Just got done serving over 100 meals today.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 19990
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 04:00:00

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby aspera » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 17:32:41

dohboi wrote:...serve healthy, high-quality meals to the homeless and others in the community.

Here too. The "well fed neighbor" notion. Certainly can sleep better knowing my neighbors are well cared for (well "fed" in the broadest meaning of the word).
Oceans rise, empires fall. - Apocalypse Lullaby, Wailin' Jennys.
Plant a garden. Soon.
User avatar
aspera
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 182
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 17:22:49
Location: Lakeland Republic

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 18:06:13

dohboi wrote:"no debts, no mortgage, no real ambition" Me too

And well put, OS

I put the time my meager savings give me to serve healthy, high-quality meals to the homeless and others in the community. Lots of vets come through, and are honored for their service. Lots of Trump supporters, as well as socialists, anarchists, and pretty much every other political, spiritual, and ethnic 'persuasion'.

I do something toward this pretty much every day. Haven't tallied the total, but it must be more than a part-time job by now. Probably 30+ hours a week. Just got done serving over 100 meals today.

Fantastic. I figure everyone tries to contribute how they can. I'm mostly a hermit and clearly suffer from the depression that runs in my family, so I'm not so much on volunteering my time re formal signing up. OTOH, I do things like help elderly neighbors having trouble with their computing setups, sometimes contributing perfectly good used Dell laptops (and some free support), etc. -- the same type of machine I use every day, which I buy refurbished and cheap.

There are LOTS of ways to contribute, and I'm heartened to see so many Americans doing that. One doesn't have to look far to see lots of elderly folks who could use a hand now and then, for one example.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 10142
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 09 Mar 2020, 18:33:58

It is now 15 months since my OP. And right on schedule, we have a stock market crash. Coming next, an official bear market.

And don't let anyone tell you THE cause is the coronavirus. It was merely the pin that popped the bubble. To be sure, it's probably going to make things worse, quicker, than otherwise would have happened. But we were headed for a recession anyway.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 12 Mar 2020, 18:43:42

copious.abundance wrote:Coming next, an official bear market.

Just a few days later ... all 3 major indexes are officially in a bear market.

Dow falls 2,300 points - worst one-day loss since 1987 crash
As trading days go, Thursday's session on Wall Street was a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad one.

Stocks were annihilated, oil plunged, credit markets tightened - even gold and bitcoin weren't spared from the carnage as anxiety over how deeply coronavirus could damage the economy continued to decimate investor confidence.

An announcement of a major funding injection by the United States Federal Reserve - aimed at flushing out financial plumbing gummed up by growing investor panic - only managed to stem the bloodbath briefly.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 2,356.60 points or just shy of 10 percent - its biggest one-day plunge since the 1987 market crash, when it lost 22 percent in a single session.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 12 Mar 2020, 21:50:13

copious.abundance wrote:It is now 15 months since my OP. And right on schedule, we have a stock market crash. Coming next, an official bear market.

And don't let anyone tell you THE cause is the coronavirus. It was merely the pin that popped the bubble. To be sure, it's probably going to make things worse, quicker, than otherwise would have happened. But we were headed for a recession anyway.


Keep telling yourself that. In the real world, we'll never know, will we?

It's probably not good to be in company with the clown set like armageddon and shorty who will use COVID-19 as an excuse to claim they were exactly right all along.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 10142
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 21:26:42
Location: Central KY

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 12 Mar 2020, 21:56:31

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
copious.abundance wrote:It is now 15 months since my OP. And right on schedule, we have a stock market crash. Coming next, an official bear market.

And don't let anyone tell you THE cause is the coronavirus. It was merely the pin that popped the bubble. To be sure, it's probably going to make things worse, quicker, than otherwise would have happened. But we were headed for a recession anyway.


Keep telling yourself that. In the real world, we'll never know, will we?

It's probably not good to be in company with the clown set like armageddon and shorty who will use COVID-19 as an excuse to claim they were exactly right all along.




So Corona and its .0016 current global infection percentage caused this global collapse?
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7186
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 12 Mar 2020, 21:57:12

Keep telling yourself that. In the real world, we'll never know, will we?

It's probably not good to be in company with the clown set like armageddon and shorty who will use COVID-19 as an excuse to claim they were exactly right all along.

Recall that all the way back in September we started having fits of "Repocalypse." That was a prelude to what was going to happen sooner or later. And of course, that was well before the virus came along. The only difference is the coronavirus probably made it sooner instead of later.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 12 Mar 2020, 22:36:30

The record govt debt, record corporate debt, record credit card debt, record personal debt, record student loan debt had nothing to do with this current crises?

It was all Corona and its .0016 global infection rate is what caused it.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7186
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby FuelShortageComing » Thu 12 Mar 2020, 22:48:47

OTTAWA -- The Bank of Canada on Thursday said it was broadening its programs aimed at ensuring there is enough cash in the country's financial system, in the latest indication of deteriorating conditions in Canada stemming from the coronavirus pandemic and the sharp pullback in crude-oil prices.

Analysts said the move represents the most concerted one by Canada's central bank to restore confidence in day-to-day financial operations since the 2008-09 credit crunch. It emerged after another tumultuous session on global financial markets, including one of the deepest one-day declines -- down more than 12% -- in decades on Canada's benchmark stock-market index.

Earlier Thursday, the Federal Re-serve said it would inject more than $1.5 trillion of temporary liquidity into markets in an effort to prevent a sharper economic contraction.

Just a day earlier, Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau told reporters he was in daily conversation with senior bank executives, and indicated the financial system was in good shape and showing few signs of strain.

BMO Capital Markets economist Michael Gregory said Thursday's moves by the U.S. and Canadian central banks "indicate to me that central banks realize that this thing is unraveling rather quickly."

Canada's central bank said Thursday it would broaden its bond-buyback program under which it adds liquidity to ensure lending, and increase the frequency under which it would carry the transactions out. "This is intended to add market liquidity and support [prices]," the bank said.

The Bank of Canada said that until further notice, buybacks would extend across all benchmark maturities and be at least weekly. The first such buyback, of roughly 500 million Canadian dollars ($362 million), will be held on Monday and target 30-year government bonds.

Further, the central bank said it would add new term-repo operations with terms of six and 12 months, and those would unfold on a biweekly basis starting on Tuesday. At present, the Bank of Canada conducts term repos -- or repurchase agreements that act as a form of short-term lending to bond dealers -- on a one- and three-month basis.

Next week's six- and 12-month repo operations will aim to add C$7 billion to money markets. The last time the central bank conducted 12-month term repos was around the time of the financial crisis.

The Bank of Canada said last week, when it cut its main interest rate by a half-percentage point, that it stood ready to inject additional liquidity to financial markets, given recent market turmoil.

The decision Thursday to act on that pledge "speaks to concerns over deteriorating financial conditions and eroding liquidity," said Warren Lovely, fixed-income strategist at National Bank Financial. "The speed of the deterioration has been alarming."

Mr. Gregory said he wouldn't be surprised if the Bank of Canada issues an emergency rate cut before its next scheduled rate announcement on April 15.

Investors were already pricing in the probability of an intermeeting cut, based on trading in overnight-index swaps. BMO and other forecasting firms now expect the Bank of Canada to reduce its main interest rate down close to zero in the coming months.

The Canadian government is scheduled to unveil a 2020 budget plan on March 30 that is now expected to include a host of fiscal measures to offset any further economic damage.

Oxford Economics, a forecasting firm, said Thursday that Canada is already in a recession, which is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. It expects Canadian gross domestic product to shrink 0.3% annualized in the first quarter, and 1.4% in the second quarter.

Get an early-morning coronavirus briefing each weekday, plus a health-news update Fridays: Sign up here

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank- ... latestnews

Canada what a fucking joke that cuntry is. No manufacturing left and tar sand going down the shitter. It is OK Canada has a bullet proof economical strategy. Bringing 330 000 immigrant per year + 500 000 to 1 000 0000 per year foreign student. Canaduuuh got this under control. Same startegy as Australia.
I said that many times that mass migration as a way to growth the economy
will eventually kill Canada.
FuelShortageComing
 

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 12 Mar 2020, 23:39:55

Armageddon wrote:The record govt debt, record corporate debt, record credit card debt, record personal debt, record student loan debt had nothing to do with this current crises?

It was all Corona and its .0016 global infection rate is what caused it.

Yep, the Corona was just the pushing of the grenade pin. It all that underlying stuff you mentioned and more.
But the cornies here still refuse to concede that. :lol:
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 12 Mar 2020, 23:45:16

onlooker wrote:
Armageddon wrote:The record govt debt, record corporate debt, record credit card debt, record personal debt, record student loan debt had nothing to do with this current crises?

It was all Corona and its .0016 global infection rate is what caused it.

Yep, the Corona was just the pushing of the grenade pin. It all that underlying stuff you mentioned and more.
But the cornies here still refuse to concede that. :lol:




They are idiots
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7186
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 13 Mar 2020, 00:05:29

The record govt debt, record corporate debt, record credit card debt, record personal debt, record student loan debt had nothing to do with this current crises?

It was all Corona and its .0016 global infection rate is what caused it.


yeah I was waiting for you to go there. Just like a number of you here kept trying to blame the 2008 recession on high oil prices you had this 3 year or more tirade about debt and how it was going to destroy the stock market and what happened.....never happened, the market continued to rise and the vast majority of economic indicators were up and until February still showing a recession wouldn't show up until 2020. Very few market analysts were saying the debt would destroy the economy imminently as you have been claiming for the last 3 years. And now when it is absolutely clear there is no other cause than the Covid for the rapid decline in the markets aided by the oil price war as of the weekend it only took you a couple of days to come up with the ....well, yes but it was really debt that did it.

You must think everyone here is actually stupid.....not as stupid as you it seems. :roll:
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7685
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 13 Mar 2020, 00:57:43

rockdoc123 wrote:
The record govt debt, record corporate debt, record credit card debt, record personal debt, record student loan debt had nothing to do with this current crises?

It was all Corona and its .0016 global infection rate is what caused it.


yeah I was waiting for you to go there. Just like a number of you here kept trying to blame the 2008 recession on high oil prices you had this 3 year or more tirade about debt and how it was going to destroy the stock market and what happened.....never happened, the market continued to rise and the vast majority of economic indicators were up and until February still showing a recession wouldn't show up until 2020. Very few market analysts were saying the debt would destroy the economy imminently as you have been claiming for the last 3 years. And now when it is absolutely clear there is no other cause than the Covid for the rapid decline in the markets aided by the oil price war as of the weekend it only took you a couple of days to come up with the ....well, yes but it was really debt that did it.

You must think everyone here is actually stupid.....not as stupid as you it seems. :roll:

PONZI SCHEME. Surely, you know how that works. The Markets were being inflated by this easy money way way beyond any realistic levels and that the Corona finally burst the bubble does NOT in any way void this dynamic. This sell off collapse is investors conceding that everthing was artificially manipulated to these incredibly high levels. So, no we are not all stupid
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 13 Mar 2020, 01:26:42

rockdoc123 wrote:
The record govt debt, record corporate debt, record credit card debt, record personal debt, record student loan debt had nothing to do with this current crises?

It was all Corona and its .0016 global infection rate is what caused it.


yeah I was waiting for you to go there. Just like a number of you here kept trying to blame the 2008 recession on high oil prices you had this 3 year or more tirade about debt and how it was going to destroy the stock market and what happened.....never happened, the market continued to rise and the vast majority of economic indicators were up and until February still showing a recession wouldn't show up until 2020. Very few market analysts were saying the debt would destroy the economy imminently as you have been claiming for the last 3 years. And now when it is absolutely clear there is no other cause than the Covid for the rapid decline in the markets aided by the oil price war as of the weekend it only took you a couple of days to come up with the ....well, yes but it was really debt that did it.

You must think everyone here is actually stupid.....not as stupid as you it seems. :roll:




Not even worth commenting on
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7186
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 13 Mar 2020, 08:43:06

A tipping point for the Global Economy
8O

https://peakoil.com/consumption/a-tippi ... al-economy
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby Cog » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 00:39:28

I wouldn't call it the end of the world just yet. Market up 9% today.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 13416
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 09:01:41

The crisis has yet to actually destroy any money. That can't happen unless people default on their debts. Trump should be able to figure that out in his stimulus package. He may still try to glad hand the rich, but he will have to throw some scraps in for the rest of us. For that reason, I think there may not be deflation as a result of this. But gold has certainly dropped a lot. That kind of drop in gold is a deflationary indicator. Mortgage moratoriums can be implemented, and similar schemes can hold off auto payments. The government could pay landlords, or freeze the financial constraints the landlords are under in exchange for suspension of rents. Then they just pay the banks.

We might most probably expect inflation out of this. Rates this low have to result in some kind of economic impact, so long as the banks will lend the money. A year or so from now the Fed Funds rate could be above five percent. It depends upon how quickly the effect of these low rates permeates throughout the economy. The economy is paying the price for the government's decision not to step in and make minimum payments to citizens. It looked too Bernie like.

The smart money must be on the sidelines. It's probably in treasuries. The Fed just made an announcement regarding treasury buying that pretty much guarantees that the smart money can get out of bonds whenever they need to, without taking a loss. The Feds idea is to make certain that the market is always large enough so that no one player making any move can disrupt price discovery. Unless they all move at once, any one of them can buy or wait, depending upon their own consciousnesses.

I guess gold is going down because enough people own it who expect they could die. It's probably better to be in cash if you need to move your money around quickly at some point. That could be to take advantage of low prices in the markets, or personal reasons.
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3731
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Stopped at the Border.

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 09:34:13

evilgenius wrote:The crisis has yet to actually destroy any money. That can't happen unless people default on their debts. Trump should be able to figure that out in his stimulus package. He may still try to glad hand the rich, but he will have to throw some scraps in for the rest of us. For that reason, I think there may not be deflation as a result of this. But gold has certainly dropped a lot. That kind of drop in gold is a deflationary indicator. Mortgage moratoriums can be implemented, and similar schemes can hold off auto payments. The government could pay landlords, or freeze the financial constraints the landlords are under in exchange for suspension of rents. Then they just pay the banks.

We might most probably expect inflation out of this. Rates this low have to result in some kind of economic impact, so long as the banks will lend the money. A year or so from now the Fed Funds rate could be above five percent. It depends upon how quickly the effect of these low rates permeates throughout the economy. The economy is paying the price for the government's decision not to step in and make minimum payments to citizens. It looked too Bernie like.

The smart money must be on the sidelines. It's probably in treasuries. The Fed just made an announcement regarding treasury buying that pretty much guarantees that the smart money can get out of bonds whenever they need to, without taking a loss. The Feds idea is to make certain that the market is always large enough so that no one player making any move can disrupt price discovery. Unless they all move at once, any one of them can buy or wait, depending upon their own consciousnesses.

I guess gold is going down because enough people own it who expect they could die. It's probably better to be in cash if you need to move your money around quickly at some point. That could be to take advantage of low prices in the markets, or personal reasons.

Yes, but it seens that defaulting on the Debt is inevitable considering the stock market crash and the economic repurcussions of this economic/health crisis
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 10957
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 13:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 14 Mar 2020, 10:29:47

You have to wonder if the government needs to get ahead of this and change some of the rules regarding probate. It will become very hard to get through any legal phase of that soon because of the volume. Creditors of small businesses will need to know the answers to some very important questions, as well, if those proprietors die and leave them on the hook. What recourse would they have over certain sources of their clients money? Maybe the government could set up transfer payment facilities designed to mirror the economic activity going on between small businesses, which they could enroll in for purposes of the sort of discovery needed to give markets some certainty, with the intention of propping it up for a period of time if necessary. Then there would be money for employees. They could ream those businesses that abused it.
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3731
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Stopped at the Border.

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests