You are still confused by all these figures so let me break it down for you again.MonteQuest wrote:No, they do not. 15.8% is 60% of 26.2%kublikhan wrote:IRENA and REN21 both claim that Hydro is around 47% of all renewable capacity.
Yes. This was because hydro generation didn't grow that much in 2018 because of weather patterns. We actually installed more hydro in 2018 than in 2017. However because of changes in weather patterns actual generation can vary. This is not new. Weather can also affect fossil fuels as well. 2018 saw soaring natural gas use because of extreme weather conditions. However natural gas growth rates for the rest of the decade were far lower.MonteQuest wrote:According to REN21, ALL renewables decreased their share of the electrical power generation pie from 26.5% in 2017 to 26.2% in 2018. Fossil fuels increased their share of the power generation pie from 73.5% in 2017 to 73.8% in 2018. As to modern renewables of wind, solar and geothermal. They grew their share of the pie just .4%. In June, we will see the REN21 2020 report for 2018 to 2019.
Did you not read my previous post? It had nothing to do with growth rates, installed capacity, etc. It had everything to do with the final share of the energy pie for every fuel type. How did we do on that front? Fossil fuels lost ground. Gains in natural gas were not enough to offset losses in coal and oil. Fossil fuels provided 82% of our total energy in 2018 and 80% in 2019. Renewables increased their share of the pie.MonteQuest wrote:You can cite all manner of stats collected from various sources on growth rates, installed capacity, etc. But the final market share stats are all that matter. The goal is to replace FF's is it not? How are we doing on that front? These stats show us that they are not growing fast enough to displace fossil fuel use.
Again, check my previous post. Renewables did quite a bit a heavy lifting as they displaced coal use. Also read what the IEA said about coal's 'growth':MonteQuest wrote:As to renewables displacing coal, that’s going to be a heavy lift going forward. While hundreds of coal-fired power plants are being canceled, there are still many being built or planned.
IEA: Global Energy Review 2019Coal demand declined by 1.7%, as electricity generation from coal-fired power plants fell by the largest amount ever, with coal challenged by cheap gas prices and expanding renewables and nuclear power.
Coal use is shrinking in both absolute and market share terms. Natural gas grew in absolute terms but but it was not enough to cover losses in coal and oil on the market share front, so fossil fuels still fell. In 2019, Renewables met 60% of new energy demand. That 25% figure you are quoting was for 2018, which was an unusual year because of extreme weather. 2019 and the rest of the past decade had much lower rates of natural gas growth:MonteQuest wrote:With renewables only meeting 25% of new energy demand, something has to fill the gap. Coal is one, along with NG, and biofuels.
IEA: Global Energy Review 2019Natural gas demand increased by 60 Mtoe, or 70 billion cubic metres (bcm), a 1.8% increase from 2018 levels. The rate of demand growth was well below the 5% increase observed in 2018 but marked a return to the average growth rate between 2010 and 2017. In contrast to 2018, when exceptional weather led to a jump in gas demand.
annual increase in energy demand by fuel in Mtoe, 2018 compared to 2019
source 2018 2019 2018 % 2019 %
total 312 124 100% 100%
Renewables 73 74 23.7% 59.7%
ffs 218 27 69.9% 21.8%
n gas 156 58 50.0% 46.8%
oil 27 33 8.7% 26.6%
nuclear 21 23 6.7% 18.5%
coal 35 -64 11.2% -51.6%
kublikhan wrote:26.2% is the measure of actual generation renewables produce, relative to the entire amount of electricity generated on the planet. This means that roughly 1/4th of all electricity generated in the world comes from renewables.
kublikhan wrote:Fossil fuels provided 82% of our total energy in 2018 and 80% in 2019. Renewables increased their share of the pie.
kublikhan wrote:Renewables met 60% of new energy demand. That 25% figure you are quoting was for 2018, which was an unusual year because of extreme weather.
REAL Green wrote:I really don't think hydro should be considered renewable except in rare cases. Much of the time beautiful water sources are destroyed to supply man with power to waste on his petty mind games. Not to mention how drenched these huge projects are in their buildout phase.
As I said, 2018 was a year of extreme weather and did not match the pattern for the rest of the decade. Repeatedly citing this single year over and over is nothing but cherry picking.MonteQuest wrote:REN21 says fossil fuels provided 79.5% in 2017 and 79.7% in 2018. Renewables decreased their share of the pie .2%.
Agreed. I never claimed gross fossil fuel consumption was shrinking globally in total energy. But I think it is interesting that globally, fossil fuels shrunk in at least electricity yoy. Has this ever happened before in the last 16 years you followed this issue?MonteQuest wrote:Then they didn't displace any FF's. To do so, they would have to have met over 100% of new demand.
What happened?MonteQuest wrote:Yes, and the ecological damage is huge. I was a National Park Ranger at both Glen Canyon and Lake Mead NRA's. The energy we robbed from the water was already being used by other downstream consumers--and I don't mean humans. There are no free lunches.
kublikhan wrote:As I said, 2018 was a year of extreme weather and did not match the pattern for the rest of the decade. Repeatedly citing this single year over and over is nothing but cherry picking.MonteQuest wrote:REN21 says fossil fuels provided 79.5% in 2017 and 79.7% in 2018. Renewables decreased their share of the pie .2%.
kublikhan wrote:MonteQuest wrote:Then they didn't displace any FF's. To do so, they would have to have met over 100% of new demand.
Agreed. I never claimed gross fossil fuel consumption was shrinking globally in total energy. But I think it is interesting that globally, fossil fuels shrunk in at least electricity yoy. Has this ever happened before in the last 16 years you followed this issue?
kublikhan wrote:What happened?MonteQuest wrote:Yes, and the ecological damage is huge. I was a National Park Ranger at both Glen Canyon and Lake Mead NRA's. The energy we robbed from the water was already being used by other downstream consumers--and I don't mean humans. There are no free lunches.
You are talking about fossil fuels' share of the electricity pie shirking. I was asking about fossil fuels' actually getting displaced in electricity. Year after year we continued to burn more fossil fuels for our electricity despite growing renewables. But in 2019 renewables met greater than 100% of new demand in electricity and the absolute amount of fossil fuels burned for electricity shrank last year. I don't recall this happening previously.MonteQuest wrote:Of course, it happens almost every year as renewables have gained more market share. In 2018, it was 73.8% and in 2015 76.3%, 78.4% in 2012.
World Electricity generation in TWh
source 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
total 17,514 20,737 23,342 23,935 24,534 25,457 25,814
ff 11,533 13,859 15,280 15,458 15,690 16,129 16,052
Not in electricity. The order of renewable gains were wind, solar, hydro, then biomass in a distant last place. Here were the gains in electricity in TWh:MonteQuest wrote:Most of the gains were the result of hydro projects, wind and biomass.
increase in global renewable electricity generation from 2018 to 2019 in TWh
source increase
wind 144
solar 126
hydro 63
biomass 18
kublikhan wrote:You are talking about fossil fuels' share of the electricity pie shirking. I was asking about fossil fuels' actually getting displaced in electricity. Year after year we continued to burn more fossil fuels for our electricity despite growing renewables. But in 2019 renewables met greater than 100% of new demand in electricity and the absolute amount of fossil fuels burned for electricity shrank last year. I don't recall this happening previously.MonteQuest wrote:Of course, it happens almost every year as renewables have gained more market share. In 2018, it was 73.8% and in 2015 76.3%, 78.4% in 2012.
kublikhan wrote:Not in electricity. The order of renewable gains were wind, solar, hydro, then biomass in a distant last place.MonteQuest wrote:Most of the gains were the result of hydro projects, wind and biomass.
MonteQuest wrote:kublikhan wrote:Not in electricity. The order of renewable gains were wind, solar, hydro, then biomass in a distant last place.MonteQuest wrote:Most of the gains were the result of hydro projects, wind and biomass.
This is why the IEA sees biomass, rather than wind/solar being 30% of new renewable energy's growth. That will be an ecological disaster.
REAL Green wrote:MonteQuest wrote:kublikhan wrote:Not in electricity. The order of renewable gains were wind, solar, hydro, then biomass in a distant last place.MonteQuest wrote:Most of the gains were the result of hydro projects, wind and biomass.
This is why the IEA sees biomass, rather than wind/solar being 30% of new renewable energy's growth. That will be an ecological disaster.
Or not much change becuase it does not have air under it meaning those kind of growth numbers are irrelevant to begin with.
There were a couple other factors at play: Coal & oil's global decline in 2019(in electricity), nuclear growth, mild weather limiting ff needs, etc.MonteQuest wrote:On that point, I don't recall it ever happening. If FF's share of the generation pie shrank in 2019, was it entirely from a growth in renewable capacity? Or were there other factors at play that declined FF use and allowed renewables a leg up? Something to look at.
I think it makes sense to clean up the power sector before trying to tackle transportation. You don't want a bunch of EVs hitting the roads if our grid is still predominantly coal.MonteQuest wrote:And again, wind and solar are really only addressing about 25% of energy demand via electricity. REN21 says it's just 17%. 83% of demand is for transportation, heating and cooling, which renewable electricity has barely penetrated. This is why the IEA sees biomass, rather than wind/solar being 30% of new renewable energy's growth. That will be an ecological disaster.
Combined Heat and Power Market, Update 2019Global Combined Heat and Power capacity increased from 456.4 gigawatts (GW) in 2006 to 864.2 GW in 2018 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.5%
Global Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Market 2019-2023Technavio has been monitoring the global combined heat and power (CHP) market and the market is poised to grow by 124.76 GW during 2019-2023.
Actually renewables have turned out to be remarkably resilient in the face of the Covid-19 crisis. Fossil fuels on the other hand have plunged. I predict 2020 will have more renewables in the mix than 2019.REAL Green wrote:If growth is over then renewable growth is likely over too. In this case biomass may dominate the renewable mix with solar and wind value chains diminished.
Covid-19 crisis will wipe out demand for fossil fuels, says IEARenewable electricity will be the only source resilient to the biggest global energy shock in 70 years triggered by the coronavirus pandemic. The International Energy Agency said the outbreak of Covid-19 would wipe out demand for fossil fuels by prompting a collapse in energy demand seven times greater than the slump caused by the global financial crisis.
In a report, the IEA said the most severe plunge in energy demand since the second world war would trigger multi-decade lows for the world’s consumption of oil, gas and coal while renewable energy continued to grow. The steady rise of renewable energy combined with the collapse in demand for fossil fuels means clean electricity will play its largest ever role in the global energy system this year, and help erase a decade’s growth of global carbon emissions.
Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said: “The plunge in demand for nearly all major fuels is staggering, especially for coal, oil and gas. Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard of slump in electricity use.” Renewable energy is expected to grow by 5% this year, to make up almost 30% of the world’s shrinking demand for electricity. The growth of renewables despite a global crisis could spur fossil fuel companies towards their goals to generate more clean energy, according to Biro.
The impact of the coronavirus has triggered a crisis for fossil fuel commodities, including the collapse of oil market prices, which turned negative for the first time in the US earlier this month. Global efforts to curb the spread of Covid-19 have led to severe restrictions on travel and the global economy that will cause the biggest drop in global oil demand in 25 years. Demand for gas is expected to fall by 5%, after a decade of uninterrupted growth. It is the steepest drop since gas became widely used as an energy source in the second half of the previous century. Coal demand is forecast to fall by 8% compared with 2019, its largest decline since the end of the second world war.
kublikhan wrote:Actually renewables have turned out to be remarkably resilient in the face of the Covid-19 crisis. Fossil fuels on the other hand have plunged. I predict 2020 will have more renewables in the mix than 2019.REAL Green wrote:If growth is over then renewable growth is likely over too. In this case biomass may dominate the renewable mix with solar and wind value chains diminished.
REAL Green wrote:"Care to elaborate? Not sure I am following you." this would not take on the thread for some reason:
My point is a speculation that growth will not return to pre-pandemic levels. This means excess capacity but also lack of capacity depending on the economic sector. Demand shocks affecting manufactures and gluts affecting commodities. Energy will likely initially suffer a glut that will damage future supply but a glut nonetheless. This is not supportive of renewable growth. If this is the case, nobody really knows at this point, then a growth of 30% of renewables that are growing is different than 30% of negative renewable growth. It is just an observation of what is possible. There is a lag effect people are trying to ignore that is surely coming kind of like the side effects people have after recovery from a grave illness. Growth may not materialize as many feel. We are habituated to growth and this is natural to feel there is a recovery over the horizon. If growth is over then renewable growth is likely over too. In this case biomass may dominate the renewable mix with solar and wind value chains diminished.
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