Newfie wrote:MONTEZ,
My fuzzy recollections of Limits to Growth was that their model fell apart once any one of the primary indicators bad. At that point it all became chaotic. The model still printed out curves, but the researchers had no confidence in those post peak curves.
AFAIK, the principles of the model (there are actually several runs) are the ff.: population goes up as industrialization takes place because of lower infant mortality rates and higher life expectancy rates. Birth rates go down due to better education, etc., leading to higher prosperity, which in turn means higher resource consumption per capita, which together with funny money are the main drivers of economic growth. Higher resource consumption is ultimately limited by biosphere limitations, leading to diminishing returns. The latter ultimately leads to lower resource consumption per capita. One aspect of limits to growth is peak oil, and what happens to oil also takes place with mining, etc.
Meanwhile, pollution goes up given more resource consumption which in turn decreases some resource availability. The model doesn't factor in the effects of climate change, which may include species die offs, storm surges, etc.
The model also doesn't factor in the effects of funny money creation, which in turn leads to cycles of booms and crashes, with some of the booms taking place because of even more funny money created.
I think the model also doesn't factor in increased complexity in industries, which in turn may actually make them even more fragile:
http://fleeingvesuvius.org/2011/10/08/o ... d-economy/In short, we are looking at the ff.
1. Ave. ecological footprint per capita is in excess of biocapacity, leading to ecological damage on a significant scale;
2. Ave. ecological footprint is rising as more people join the global middle class, which is part of economic growth and has lowered birth rates, but has also led to even more damage;
3. Due to momentum, population continues to rise;
4. Peak oil, as part of limits to growth, has been taking place, with lower energy returns, in turn threatening that economic growth;
5. Climate change, as part of pollution and ecological damage, has been threatening supply chains, among others, that are part of that highly complex industrial civilization that powers economic growth;
6. Increasing debt has led to one crash after another, with other "black swans" appearing, such as epidemics and pandemics taking place given increased vectors in the spread of disease, more threats of conflict (especially over resources) given multi-fold increases in arms production and deployment worldwide;
and so on in a global economy that is based not on cooperation but on competition and maximization of profit.
The premise is that a "green new deal" is supposed to take place given that competition and can reverse limits to growth, i.e., diminishing returns.