Do You Desire to be a Prophet?

by **mmasters** » Tue 03 Sep 2019, 11:13:34

I used to have a desire to predict things before they happened but aside from calling the 2008 crash I've been wrong so many times I've given up on trying to call highly complex matters. So, do you desire to be a prophet of doom or otherwise? I know a lot of people on the site suffer from this.

by **Newfie** » Tue 03 Sep 2019, 11:30:56

I vote YES, because I assume being a profit means I will be correct. And I like to have new experiences.
:-D

by **Cog** » Tue 03 Sep 2019, 13:34:52

I prefer not to be a prophet and ridicule those who think they are one.

by **Newfie** » Tue 03 Sep 2019, 14:16:16

Never said I was one, would just like to right sometimes.

by **careinke** » Tue 03 Sep 2019, 21:22:42

Desiring and being are two separate things. Given a choice I would always pick prophet. It would be nice to be right once in a while....

by **Tanada** » Wed 04 Sep 2019, 07:29:04

Actually I consider myself a teller of cautionary tales. That is kind of the opposite of prophecy as I want to prevent the bad parts of the future, not just predict them.

by **ralfy** » Wed 04 Sep 2019, 10:46:38

It doesn't matter because crises already started.

by **Cog** » Wed 04 Sep 2019, 11:09:35

ralfy wrote:It doesn't matter because crises already started.

What crisis has already started?

by **Outcast_Searcher** » Wed 04 Sep 2019, 14:34:32

Tanada wrote:Actually I consider myself a teller of cautionary tales. That is kind of the opposite of prophecy as I want to prevent the bad parts of the future, not just predict them.

And you have a strong track record (from when I've noticed) of using logic, facts, data, good sources, etc. to BACK your cautionary tales.

I'd call that what this site needs FAR MORE OF, so Kudos to you.

I think in the good old days we called that wisdom or common sense or something, but I realize such ideas are now unfashionable.

But of course, in the world of Facebook and Lee Press-On Nails, who has TIME for such things? :roll:

by **Outcast_Searcher** » Wed 04 Sep 2019, 14:36:32

ralfy wrote:It doesn't matter because crises already started.

Ah yes, another fact filled, detailed, accurate, doomer pearl of wisdom. :roll:

At least it's a short style, unlike the bloviating of, say, Shorty.

by **careinke** » Thu 05 Sep 2019, 01:29:14

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
ralfy wrote:It doesn't matter because crises already started.

Ah yes, another fact filled, detailed, accurate, doomer pearl of wisdom.

At least it's a short style, unlike the bloviating of, say, Shorty.

Bloviating, what a great word, I learned something today. Thanks

On the other hand; topsoil loss, Dead Zones, global warming, negative interest rates, migrating populations, and economic instability lend credence to ralfy's claim. Not saying there aren't simple solutions to all of these, just they probably will not be implemented.

by **Outcast_Searcher** » Thu 05 Sep 2019, 02:17:36

careinke wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
ralfy wrote:It doesn't matter because crises already started.

Ah yes, another fact filled, detailed, accurate, doomer pearl of wisdom.

At least it's a short style, unlike the bloviating of, say, Shorty.

Bloviating, what a great word, I learned something today. Thanks

On the other hand; topsoil loss, Dead Zones, global warming, negative interest rates, migrating populations, and economic instability lend credence to ralfy's claim. Not saying there aren't simple solutions to all of these, just they probably will not be implemented.

Fair enough. Humanity has been stumbling around and dealing with various problems and crises for centuries now. I guess I would have taken "crises already started" more seriously with some adult level of explanation of what was meant.

by **ralfy** » Thu 05 Sep 2019, 23:12:44

I explained my point in previous messages in various threads. Organizations ranging from the U.S. military to HSBC to Lloyds of London have said similar.

Given that, one should not ask whether one desires to be a prophet but whether one has enough common sense to see what has been taking place globally.

by **Zarquon** » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 11:38:23

If I drop a rock from my balcony and then predict that it will probably fall to the ground in the near future, does that qualify me as a prophet? Mhhh, perhaps not. Or at best as a 2nd-year prophesy intern.

On the other hand, if I pull some random numbers out of my hat, find a logical connection between them that would make even Donald Trump blush and then cook up an endless stream of ETP diagrams to "scientifically" prove my point, do I qualify then? YES!!!!!

That is not to say that prophets don't have their use. They can serve an educational purpose, a warning to the rest of us. Anybody who is an amateur student of PO - where global energy use & consumption, economics and politics collide - and is convinced that his gut feelings are right (doomer or cornie, doesn't matter) is probably not worth listening to. My ignore list keeps getting longer and longer. A site like this can be useful to ask questions, not find the ultimate answers. Prophets belong in deserts.

by **Ibon** » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 12:35:54

Homo sapiens is a fucked up species. There, I am the best prophet of ALL !

by **Zarquon** » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 13:05:10

Bah. Go live in a desert cave. Or a hut in the jungle.

by **Ibon** » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 13:13:52

Zarquon wrote: Go live in a Hut in the jungle.

I am. but with lovely amenities.

by **Plantagenet** » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 13:18:02

Considering that global warming will destroy human civilization in a couple of decades, being a prophet is a job with a short term future.

Cheers!

by **asg70** » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 14:55:19

Within tribal societies, a big part of survival was trying to anticipate the future. So everyone has deep-seated drives to predict the future in order to raise our social-status. It doesn't have to be doom. It's anything as simple as betting on college sports or the next presidential election or whether Rise of Skywalker will bomb. It's just part of being human. When you're right you get a quick dopamine hit which is why gambling is an addiction. That dopamine hit is evolutionary psych right there.

When I see people like Armageddon or Short invest hundreds of hours doing their end-is-nigh schtick, that's really what drives it, that need to fuel the ego. If they can just chalk up a win then they can feel like they are special, that they "matter" rather than just going through the usual drudgery of the daily grind.

by **Outcast_Searcher** » Fri 13 Dec 2019, 16:16:13

asg70 wrote:When I see people like Armageddon or Short invest hundreds of hours doing their end-is-nigh schtick, that's really what drives it, that need to fuel the ego. If they can just chalk up a win then they can feel like they are special, that they "matter" rather than just going through the usual drudgery of the daily grind.

But if they accidentally get something meaningful right, chalking up that "win" against hundreds or thousands of losses is a track record they'd have to be almost COMPLETELY delusional about to be proud of.

But of course since we're talking about them and their posting history -- never mind.