[careinke]

My Niece and her husband have made a lot of money from Covid-19. They own a plastics manufacturing company who just happen to make Costco's fresh seafood sneeze guards. So guess who Costco went to when they needed a sneeze guard solution for their checkout stations? Add to that, the fact they were the first in the plastic manufacturing business to figure out a LOT of Plexiglas was going to be used, and pretty much cornered the US supply of Plexiglas. Even then, they ran out of the preferred stock, and had to find less desirable substitutes.

BTW virtually ALL the Plexiglas in the US is imported from Canada or Mexico. US manufacturers were out competed many years ago. (maybe a investment opportunity?

In other economic areas, from first hand observations, small mom and pop service businesses in the skilled trades seem to being doing great. Lots of home owners have spent a lot of time looking at their property lately, and want to make improvements.

I also think, depending on how long this lasts, Drive in theaters may make a nice social distancing comeback.

I've been told the Chinese word for crisis is the combination of Dangerous and Opportunity. Lots of money is being made during this Pandemic, and not all of it is going to big business.

[Outcast_Searcher]

I also think, depending on how long this lasts, Drive in theaters may make a nice social distancing comeback.

That's an interesting idea. I think that makes sense in rural areas or near small cities. I would think in or near big cities that the cost of land would make that kind of prohibitive. It's not like you can charge a fortune for tickets in the modern era, where A/C and video solutions are ubiquitous.

But in the right area re land cost where, say, some farmer dies and they use part of the land for a drive through instead of rapidly building shopping centers, etc, that could work. And if the demand dies away with COVID-19 at some point, then they could just sell the land for building project X.

[vtsnowedin]

I also think, depending on how long this lasts, Drive in theaters may make a nice social distancing comeback.

That's an interesting idea. I think that makes sense in rural areas or near small cities. I would think in or near big cities that the cost of land would make that kind of prohibitive. It's not like you can charge a fortune for tickets in the modern era, where A/C and video solutions are ubiquitous.

But in the right area re land cost where, say, some farmer dies and they use part of the land for a drive through instead of rapidly building shopping centers, etc, that could work. And if the demand dies away with COVID-19 at some point, then they could just sell the land for building project X.

Any box store or mall parking lot would do. Modern Driveins use AM radio to transmit the sound track so no wiring or speaker posts are needed. That leaves the cost of erecting a screen. You could even have the nearby MickyDs act as the concession stand and cosponsor.

[JuanP]

I also think, depending on how long this lasts, Drive in theaters may make a nice social distancing comeback.

That's an interesting idea. I think that makes sense in rural areas or near small cities. I would think in or near big cities that the cost of land would make that kind of prohibitive. It's not like you can charge a fortune for tickets in the modern era, where A/C and video solutions are ubiquitous.

But in the right area re land cost where, say, some farmer dies and they use part of the land for a drive through instead of rapidly building shopping centers, etc, that could work. And if the demand dies away with COVID-19 at some point, then they could just sell the land for building project X.

Any box store or mall parking lot would do. Modern Driveins use AM radio to transmit the sound track so no wiring or speaker posts are needed. That leaves the cost of erecting a screen. You could even have the nearby MickyDs act as the concession stand and cosponsor.

Good point! A significant percentage of surface area is parking lots in Miami. I see them everywhere around from the roof of my building. Many of them would make great outdoor movie theaters. This is actually a growing trend here in Miami since before the pandemic. There were several places where you could take your beach chair and go watch a movie outdoors for free once a week. Drive ins are a natural progression. There are many parking lots with walls that could very easily be repurposed for this. Just plaster and/or fresh paint and you are ready to go. There are also smartphone apps that run on wifi for this, too.

[JuanP]

Something to consider for anyone looking for a job now is helping people design, build, and manage food gardens. There is a huge demand for this in the USA right now, and the few people that do it have very long waiting lists. The startup costs are very low and there is essentially no overhead.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Any box store or mall parking lot would do. Modern Driveins use AM radio to transmit the sound track so no wiring or speaker posts are needed. That leaves the cost of erecting a screen. You could even have the nearby MickyDs act as the concession stand and cosponsor.

Good point. In fact, some sort of a semi-portable or temporary folding screen could perhaps be used, with wind being the main issue re support, if having the cost and presence of a permanent screen were a problem in, say, a mall parking lot.

That's very interesting re the AM radio for the transmission (didn't even think of that, though should have, in hindsight). So yeah, without the need to buy a bunch of land, those could end up lots of places as long as there is demand.

[REAL Green]

“People Are Going To Be Shocked': Bannon Claims Wuhan Lab Employees Have Defected, Are Working With FBI”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/peo ... orking-fbi

“One day after a report that a respected Chinese virologist fled Hong Kong to accuse Beijing of a COVID cover-up, former Trump strategist Steve Bannon told the Daily Mail that scientists from the Wuhan Institute of Virology and other labs have defected to the West and are "turning over evidence" against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for their role in the COVID-19 pandemic which has claimed over 560,000 lives worldwide since last December. "People are going to be shocked," Bannon told the Mail ("from a yacht off the East coast of America," the Mail would like us to know). The 66-year-old then said that defectors are cooperating with intelligence agencies in America, Europe and the UK, which have been assembling evidence to challenge the CCP claim that the pandemic originated in a wet market - not in a lab home to scientists who have come under fire for manipulating bat coronavirus to be more transmissible to humans. "I think that they [spy agencies] have electronic intelligence, and that they have done a full inventory of who has provided access to that lab. I think they have very compelling evidence. And there have also been defectors," he said. "People around these labs have been leaving China and Hong Kong since mid-February. [US intelligence] along with MI5 and MI6 are trying to build a very thorough legal case, which may take a long time. It’s not like James Bond." Mr Bannon even suggested that the French government, which helped to build the institute, had left behind monitoring systems after Beijing shut them out of the project before it opened in 2017. -Daily Mail "The thing was built with French help, so don’t think that there aren’t some monitoring devices in there. I think what you are going to find out is that these guys were doing experiments which they weren’t fully authorized [for] or knew what they were doing and that somehow, either through an inadvertent mistake, or on a lab technician, one of these things got out," Bannon continued. "It’s not that hard for these viruses to get out. That is why these labs are so dangerous." "You essentially had a biological Chernobyl in Wuhan, but the center of gravity, the Ground Zero, was around the Wuhan lab, in terms of the casualty rates. And like Chernobyl, you also had the cover-up – the state apparatus reports to itself and just protects itself."

[Plantagenet]

The Nasdaq index took a big tumble today because the virus is surging and states are beginning to lock down again.

If this sell-off gets bigger and the markets plunge, that might be another buying opportunity for the market.......

Alternatively it might mean the whole economy is going to collapse because of the virus and we're heading into a global depression.

Its time to get out those crystal balls and predict the future ......is the virus going to crash the economy? Will we have a vaccine soon? What incompetent bizarre thing will Trump do next? Will Joe Biden be totally senile by election day or will it take a few more months for him to go off?


Coronavirus investing is not for the timid......

Cheers!

[Outcast_Searcher]

The Nasdaq index took a big tumble today because the virus is surging and states are beginning to lock down again.

If this sell-off gets bigger and the markets plunge, that might be another buying opportunity for the market.......

Alternatively it might mean the whole economy is going to collapse because of the virus and we're heading into a global depression.

Its time to get out those crystal balls and predict the future ......is the virus going to crash the economy? Will we have a vaccine soon?

...

Coronavirus investing is not for the timid......

I don't think the virus will "crash" the economy, but OTOH, I think the market is likely assuming too much fairly quick good news and very little potentially likely bad news. So it wouldn't surprise me to see the market down, say, 20% from here by year-end, but the economy muddling along with supplies of things like food and staples doing just fine, re demand. And of course, things like employment and what is open like restaurants being dependent on how much COVID-19 case risk there is.

I've noticed both in trips to the grocery store and in articles that much of the hoarding demand seems to have abated, and products are getting more available, generally. As that happens and shoppers have more confidence they can get things, that tends to feed on itself re less hoarding.

I'm still pessimistic about a viable, solidly effective vaccine by 2021. I think more like LATE 2021 is far more likely, given how many attempts will fail, and all the hurdles to get tested and approved. How the markets react if that becomes apparent is hard to say -- perhaps a big dip for awhile, and then based on vaccine news. I don't think that overall, it will make much difference to the economy. I think it will struggle along, mostly, until it is APPARENT that the virus is pretty much beaten and it is mostly safe out there -- and that is going to take TIME, even if a vaccine is widely available in early 2021, and it works well.

[Newfie]

Just got a long missive from our financial adviser that he is expecting SS to go broke well before the current 2035 projection due to Covid lockdown.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Just got a long missive from our financial adviser that he is expecting SS to go broke well before the current 2035 projection due to Covid lockdown.

Meaning what, re "lockdown"? That he's projecting lots of long term lockdown, or that even if the economy bounces back fairly quickly that's still true, or something else?

Without knowing what such a projection is based on, re basic assumptions, it's rather hard to know how to even discuss it, IMO.

Assuming the economy gets more or less back to normal by the time SS "runs out of money", that means benefits go down to a projected 79% to 80% or so, not that payments will stop.

And given the fallout THAT will cause re seniors, who tend to vote, I have trouble believing that the beltway crowd does NOTHING right up to that moment.

...

However, given how badly government works re reliability, my plans/hopes for SS / Medicare overall, is that my SS pays my medicare taxes, which lets me get medicare for "free" re further charges from the government. Oh, and my annual medical insurance for a 61 year old who never costs the insurance company anything in 13 years thus far, are already over $15,000 a year for a medium deductible plan, just for me. So presumably I can put that annual $15,000 (plus how much it grows in 4 years) into a bucket for paying what Medicare doesn't cover, since Medicare supplemental plans look like a rip-off, re their costs.

That's clearly a LONG way from the "SS and medicare will take care of me through retirement" attitude that far too many non-savers seem to have.

[Plantagenet]

Just got a long missive from our financial adviser that he is expecting SS to go broke well before the current 2035 projection due to Covid lockdown.

Biden is proposing an immense array of new taxes on just about everything. The new Biden taxes will also include an increase in social security taxes, ie. Biden will end the cap on taxable SS income so that income over $400 K will be taxed at 12.4%.

However, its not clear that this will make the system solvent, since Biden also plans to change the way SS is paid out so that people at the very low end of the SS payout will get a large boost in SS checks and there will also be a supplemental increase in SS payments paid to very old people. Most people won't see these benefits as he won't change the system in the "middle" of the payout scheme.

Biden is also proposing to end the special "windfall" tax on SS benefits that hits some people with government pensions and SS, greatly increasing SS payments to teachers and other government employees.

But people getting more Social security income and virtually everyone else will face higher taxes, because Biden is also proposing increases throughout the tax system.

The bottom line is expect more taxes on just about everyone, with the benefits going mainly to those in the selected special interest groups supported by the D party.

Cheers!

[vtsnowedin]

I see a double edged sword here. Covid will clear out a lot of the elderly and infirm reducing the needed monthly payments to them but at the same time the lockdowns and other knocks on the economy will reduce the taxes owed and collected. I don't have any real figures to do the math with so I can't say if it will be a plus or a minus for the longevity of the trust fund.

[Ibon]

Just got a long missive from our financial adviser that he is expecting SS to go broke well before the current 2035 projection due to Covid lockdown.

Biden is proposing an immense array of new taxes on just about everything. The new Biden taxes will also include an increase in social security taxes, ie. Biden will end the cap on taxable SS income so that income over $400 K will be taxed at 12.4%.

I would think that would be reasonable. Anyone with the good fortune and hard work to have had the success of an income like that should feel it is an honor to pay more taxes or more in SS as a thank you to your country that provided you such an opportunity to be successful.

Increasing the resiliency of the SS system insures that you do not have poverty..........which by the way exasperates pandemics.

Imagine a culture where the wealthy competed with each other for status by how much taxes they pay and how much they give back to society.

In biology this is called mutualism.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutualism_(biology)

Mutualism describes the ecological interaction between two or more species where each species has a net benefit.[1] Mutualism is a common type of ecological interaction. Prominent examples include most vascular plants engaged in mutualistic interactions with mycorrhizae, flowering plants being pollinated by animals, vascular plants being dispersed by animals, and corals with zooxanthellae, among many others.

The rigged economic system in the US with the extreme disparity of wealth is an example of another type of symbiosis; Parasitism.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parasitis ... 0of%20life.

In evolutionary ecology, parasitism is a symbiotic relationship between species, where one organism, the parasite, lives on or in another organism, the host, causing it some harm, and is adapted structurally to this way of life

Note that both mutualism and parasitism represent a symbiotic relationship, one of which both species benefit and one where one gains at the expense of the other.

The wealth pump that has increasingly flowed upward to the extreme wealthy while the standard of living of the middle class has steadily declined for the past 30 years represents a major ecological shift in the economy of the USA from mutualism to parasitism.

The immediate decades following WWII was defined by mutualism whereby the wealthy and middle class both made major gains and mutually benefited.

As the economy became increasingly driven by finance and globalization starting in the 80's we saw a major shift away mutualism over to parasitism in the economy of the US.

It is interesting that both are symbiotic.

Citizens accepting their role as host to a parasitic system are in a symbiotic relationship and accept the exploitation. I think most Americans are pretty accepting of being in the role of host and have struggled but found ways to accept parasitism in a symbiotic relationship with the extreme wealthy who exploit them.

Maybe AMericans will be the first to succeed in an ecologically more sustainable arrangement with a tiny number of elites and a vast base of serfs who are content in the symbiosis of parasitism.

It would seem we are being socialized in this way, adapting to being permanently in debt. Having huge amounts of debt is similar to being an indentured servant. Symbiotically adapted to permanent serfdom by being a debt slave. This is pure parasitism.

Those couple of decades after WWII when a blue collar worker could put two children through college debt free on a single parents income?

Those were the wonderful days of mutualism.

Tax reform is one of the ways to return to these times. The wealthy will need to give back a lot more to the society that enabled them to have the foundation to grow their enormous wealth. Otherwise we continue in symbiosis with the current parasitism.

[Newfie]

Frankly I’m not betting the “economy” will make it to 2035. It may, but I believe there is a fair chance it won’t.

I don’t know how to plan for that anymore than I knew how to plan for Covid one year ago. Yet we seem to be doing OK, our bug out boat has played its role well and looks likely to continue to do so.

Will that help us if the economy crashes? Complete unknown.

[JuanP]

"It starts: Mortgage delinquencies suddenly soar at record rates"
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/14/it-st ... cord-pace/

This does not include the 8% of mortgages on forebearance plans. Mortgages delinquent 0-30 days are at 3.4%. In November 2008, they peaked at 2% during that year's Real Estate bust. One to two month delinquencies are at a record high, too. In 30 days, unless something happens, like a government intervention, mortgages delinquent 0-90 days will be at a record high. We can expect very large numbers of foreclosures and evictions in 12-18 months, unless there is a market intervention by the government. Florida is in fourth place as a state, and the Miami metro area ranks first in the country amongst large metropolitan areas.

I am very curious to find out how the US government will respond to this. Will they allow the country's largest foreclosure and eviction crisis to occur without intervening and let tens of millions of lives be ruined?

[GHung]

"It starts: Mortgage delinquencies suddenly soar at record rates"
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/14/it-st ... cord-pace/ ........

We can expect very large numbers of foreclosures and evictions in 12-18 months, unless there is a market intervention by the government. Florida is in fourth place as a state, and the Miami metro area ranks first in the country amongst large metropolitan areas.

I am very curious to find out how the US government will respond to this. Will they allow the country's largest foreclosure and eviction crisis to occur without intervening and let tens of millions of lives be ruined?

Jeez, Juan, relax! Just like if we don't test for covid so much we won't have so many cases of virus, we just stop collecting so many statistics about unpaid mortgages and all that. Easy peasy.
Trump has his best people on it.

[REAL Green]

“Travelers Are Buying These Hazmat Suits For Planes”
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/pa ... its-planes

“With face masks now mandatory on many North American flights, a Toronto-based technology startup has designed a custom hazmat suit to be worn on planes and in public areas. VYZR technologies specialize in developing and building protective equipment, including the new BioVYZR, a stylish bio-suit fitted with a powered air-purifying N-95 respirator and anti-fogging windows. The suit resembles a plastic bubble worn by Jake Gyllenhaal in the 2001 movie Bubble Boy.”

[Plantagenet]

Anyone with the good fortune and hard work to have had the success of an income like that should feel it is an honor to pay more taxes or more in SS as a thank you to your country that provided you such an opportunity to be successful.

Anyone with the good fortune and hard work to have had the success of an income already is honored by the opportunity to pay more taxes as a thank you to their country. What you are saying is a great argument for the progressive income tax system.

But you seem to have forgotten that the SS system was set up to be a distinct and separate retirement program that was designed to be independent and distinct from the federal income tax system.

What Biden's plan does is transform the SS system from a retirement system into just another part of the federal income tax system.

And thats precisely what has gotten the SS system into trouble. Rather then managing people's SS accounts for their retirement, the SS security system has gradually been transformed into another tax system where the SS taxes go into the general fund.

Personally, I think its the wrong way to go. I would much rather see SS reformed to return it to an independent system dedicated to protecting people's retirements, rather then transformed into part of the federal income tax system. The federal budget is in severe deficit, in case you haven't noticed, and blurring the distinction between a financially strapped SS system and the highly in debt federal budget, as Biden's SS proposal does, is a real and distinct danger to the SS system and its payments. [/quote]

Cheers!

[Ibon]

Personally, I think its the wrong way to go. I would much rather see SS reformed to return it to an independent system dedicated to protecting people's retirements, rather then transformed into part of the federal income tax system. The federal budget is in severe deficit, in case you haven't noticed, and blurring the distinction between a financially strapped SS system and the highly in debt federal budget, as Biden's SS proposal does, is a real and distinct danger to the SS system and its payments.

I agree with you on this 100% actually. In Panama the SS system is in place but a very basic affordable health care is wrapped up into the SS system. Emoloyees pay 11% of their wages, Employer contribution is 13%. In addition to receiving Social Security when retired this system allows all who pay into to go to any public hospital in Panama and pay rock bottom prices for health care. The problem is that the public system here is good for setting a broken bone or stitches all the way up to basic surgeries like removing gall bladders etc. but the moment you get into any advance medical procedure you have to go to a private hospital.

In the US you expand Medicare for all as a universal public option for health care along with the SS system that you pay into as you propose. You could do this similar to Panama although both the political left and right would cry foul. You make Medicare for all available as a public option for a pre determined list of basic medical service all the way up to treating basic cancers etc. Anything above and beyond that would be out of pocket in the private market or supplemental private health insurance.

Then on top of this Medicare for all and the existing SS system you add a 15% VAT tax in the US that would finance public works projects, a basic UBI income for all citizens and free advance college education. You regulate it to not make it regressive for the poor. Re budget the police forces to reduce them to only law enforcement and add more community service mental health workers. Eliminate incarceration for non violent drug users. VAT income can provide free vocation education for career development.

Add to that a minimum basic livable wage income
Add to that strong immigration policy to stop undocumented aliens
Add to that tariffs to protect domestic manufacturing to revitalize rural communities.
Add to that taxes on all automation that would finance all of the above.

There it is. The whole package. What did I miss? You would largely eliminate poverty in the US, reduce the disparity, bring more social equity and take the US out of 3rd world status by providing all the public with the basics.

A return to mutualism between the very wealthy and the vast number of wage earners. A departure from the parasitic debilitation of a system rigged for the privileged few.

And with that we can stand proud head to head with our European partners who already offer many of these basics to their citizens.

Question. Do we want to be like Brazil or like Germany? OR like France or Canada or Denmark?