[vtsnowedin]

I'd also be interested in clear explanation of just how bitcoin works and it's advantages over traditional currency.
But back to Covid related investing:
A news segment on Fox Business noted the start of first phase trials on yet another Vaccine. This one from immunitybio with NantKwest (NK ). This one takes a different approach as it promotes T cell production to fully turn on the patients immune system. They designed it building on the success they have had treating pancreatic cancer.
As interesting as their Covid vaccine work is what got my attention was their anti cancer work which might eventually lead to an anti cancer vaccine.
Just something to think about and watch a bit.

[Outcast_Searcher]

While I await Carinkes response I will demonstrate my ignorance by attempting a partial answer.

...

Because they are rare their quantity is controlled. My understanding is that super computers or mesh computing is being used to solve for more bitcoin solutions. The energy being expended to “mine” bitcoins is somewhat more than what Belgium uses.

Essentially you own a bit coin solution, you get a certification of the solution, which is unique, can not be replicated.

So a bit coin is a lot like gold, it is a rare item, limited quantity, can not be replicated or transmuted.

It is a rejection of fiat currencies the same way gold bugs hoard physical gold. Or junk silver. I think of it this way, a bit coin is real in the intellectual world the way hold is real in the physical world. It is a repudiation of fiat which is based on TRUST. So gold bugs and bit coin adherents are saying they have more faith in good or the bit coin SYSTEM than they do in dollars. Then there are the folks who buy toilet paper and ammo.

Good high level (nontechnical) answer, IMO. For those who want "serious" technical answers, there are books, and there are white papers on the internet.

I'm NO expert, but have done a bit of reading and thinking about the technology. So I'm speaking conceptually here, strictly as a layman.

Like with gold, there are problems, re security and expenses with something like Bitcoin. Some more modern cryptos overcome some of the issues/limitations (like transaction speed), but not all.

So for example, for Bitcoin specifically, it's relatively slow and expensive to do a transaction, given how much background work has to go on in the distributed public ledger that is core to Bitcoin, get the transaction verified and approved, etc. So compared to that, modern chipped credit cards are a MUCH more efficient and inexpensive solution.

Then you have all the blatant hacking that has gone on for people using Bitcoin repositories. And unlike dollars in banks, secured by FDIC insurance, lots of such Bitcoin thefts are partially just lost to Bitcoin holders, in LARGE percentages.

(And this is like the problem with physical gold or paper currency. Subject to theft, requires secure storage, and expensive and a hassle to manage due to that). Electronic storage of paper currency doesn't have that problem IF you trust the government / banking system -- and of course, trust (or lack thereof) is earned.)

Bitcoin Wallets are supposedly secure against such hacking, but almost no one really understands the tech. and whether there might be back doors, flaws like bugs, or other issues. No one is sure who even invented Bitcoin. One concern I'd have is whether some day, the inventor uses a back door, greatly enriches him/herself, and then the whole Bitcoin structure goes POOF re credibility and having any worth. Same could apply to any other cryptocurrency, including government sponsored ones.

And let's say one chooses Bitcoin, despite its flaws. Or cryptocurrency X despite its flaws. WHAT HAPPENS if at some point, government(s) suddenly announce a new government sponsored/mandated cryptocurrency that just blows the market value of Bitcoin, etc. out of the water? If the government would BACK the value of its cryptocurrency if it's hacked or stolen, and it is highly efficient and cheap to transact, like a Visa transaction -- I think the value of something like Bitcoin would decline (over time) by 90%, and perhaps 99% or even 100%.

One theory is crypto would let people evade income taxes. That dream is already dead, re IRS regulations and tools. People get 1099's for Bitcoin trading, for example. They (TPTB like the IRS) have some ability to track transactions from analyzing the public ledger for another.

...

To me, cryptocurrencies are a clever idea that don't pass far too many practicality / risk tests to make me want to buy them. OTOH, the underlying technology of the blockchain (the tech. behind the structure of the data in the public ledger used for cryptocurrencies) might well end up being a powerful tool for record keeping for things like financial transactions, which is why there is a serious amount of R&D occurring on that business opportunity by various software outfits.

[Newfie]

To me the take away from the crypto story is that it points out just how LITTLE faith many folks in the financial system have in fiat currencies. Essentially they are investing in the collapse of our current money system.

[vtsnowedin]

Dose anyone have a handle on how many people are investing in Bitcoin out of any given population? Is it a toy for Geeks or something everybody should consider?
As an older conservative I think not, but the majority might have other ideas.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Dose anyone have a handle on how many people are investing in Bitcoin out of any given population? Is it a toy for Geeks or something everybody should consider?
As an older conservative I think not, but the majority might have other ideas.

That's a good question, which I don't think is easy to accurately answer.

I tried some google searches, and got answers from 5% to 15%, for Americans. The answers above 10% seemed to me to be biased toward pumping Bitcoin, but of course, I could be wrong there.

No information on size, length of time, etc. denoting seriousness of investment in Bitcoin, that I saw. Data based on surveys, which of course, have their own issues re accuracy for self-reporting on such things.

Edit: Full disclosure: I am just a layman re internet searches and have no special expertise or experience/education re making complex, accurate internet searches. (I just type the search I want into google and smack the ENTER key, and try a number of variations to try to get a reasonable answer).

[Plantagenet]

I'm not a big fan of bitcoin because I can't see where it has any intrinsic value.

When you invest in gold or land or stocks of companies there are some real physical assets there......

But there isn't anything actually there in a Bitcoin. Its just a digital conjuration.

I mean.....if you want to invest in rarity why not buy rare stamps. Then you get a real item.

I've got a friend who invests in rare coins. Again..... he pays his money and gets a rare coin.

Bitcoin......not so much....

Personally, I think people who buy Bitcoin are just speculating. You buy bitcoin and maybe somebody will pay more for it at a later date. IMHO its the big up-and-down moves in Bitcoin that are the attraction for investors.


If you want to invest in something rare, why not invest in rare stamps? No one is out there making any more of them....

Cheers!

[Newfie]

Plant,

Thats the thing, as ephemeral as it is bit coin has some intrinsic value, it is a rare item that can be uniquely identified.

Compare to gold
Gold is rare but can be mined, ditto bit coin - except there seems to be a faster diminishing rate of return. It keeps getting harder and harder to find solutions to the algorithm.

Hood can not he uniquely identified, it can be assayed to assure purity. But coins are absolutely unique and identifiable.

Money, dollars or Euros or pounds are not rare, they can be and are created from thin air.

Money can be counterfeited but that has gotten harder. But is not just printing more money government sanctioned counterfeiting?

Bottom line: bitcoin has more valuable traits than MODERN fiat currency.

[vtsnowedin]

At present if I go down to the local store and pull an eighteen pack of Bud from the cooler and set it on the counter with a picture of dead president Andrew Jackson on it they will take the piece of paper and let me walk out the door with my beer.
That works for me and as long as that works I see no need for Bitcoin or any other cyber currency.

[Newfie]

Here is an old question of mine.

Lets say you have a spare $100,000 laying around. You do not want to keep it in cash, you want it to be useful in a collapse situation. So it needs to be portable and of sufficient intrinsic worth that it will not loose value AND it needs to be divisible into small units, so that you can buy a loaf if bread with it.

Real estate is a great investment, not portable or divisible. Gold is portable but hard to wack off $5 worth. I have no clue about bitcoin divisibility, I suspect you sell it, convert it to cash.

I find this a difficult question. The only thing I can think of that works would be either junk silver or ammo. 22LR would work reasonably well but is heavy. And for me traveling internationally it is often illegal.

Other thoughts appreciated.

[mmasters]

Here is an old question of mine.

Lets say you have a spare $100,000 laying around. You do not want to keep it in cash, you want it to be useful in a collapse situation. So it needs to be portable and of sufficient intrinsic worth that it will not loose value AND it needs to be divisible into small units, so that you can buy a loaf if bread with it.

Real estate is a great investment, not portable or divisible. Gold is portable but hard to wack off $5 worth. I have no clue about bitcoin divisibility, I suspect you sell it, convert it to cash.

I find this a difficult question. The only thing I can think of that works would be either junk silver or ammo. 22LR would work reasonably well but is heavy. And for me traveling internationally it is often illegal.

Other thoughts appreciated.

Silver is the way to go, has more potential than gold (IMO) and you don't need that much...
https://www.apmex.com/product/196110/20 ... box-sealed

And if you only have a few thou lying around you want to protect/invest...
https://www.apmex.com/product/196106/20 ... onster-box

[vtsnowedin]

$100,000 laying around? Nice problem to have.
How about what it would take for you to survive with no additional income for a year?
High end earners have often leveraged out their expenses with high rents and high car payments etc. and paying minimums on those pesky credit card balances.
Cut off their income and in sixty days they are out of the apartment and their car has been repossessed. Hope Mom and Dad will still let you in.
The best defense is to own outright a modest house you can live in for just the utility bills and the property taxes knowing it takes a couple of years for back taxes to result in eviction. A good solid bank balance would not hurt a bit in such a situation but you have to take action to carry on once it is exhausted.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Plant,

Thats the thing, as ephemeral as it is bit coin has some intrinsic value, it is a rare item that can be uniquely identified.

Compare to gold
Gold is rare but can be mined, ditto bit coin - except there seems to be a faster diminishing rate of return. It keeps getting harder and harder to find solutions to the algorithm.

Hood can not he uniquely identified, it can be assayed to assure purity. But coins are absolutely unique and identifiable.

Money, dollars or Euros or pounds are not rare, they can be and are created from thin air.

Money can be counterfeited but that has gotten harder. But is not just printing more money government sanctioned counterfeiting?

Bottom line: bitcoin has more valuable traits than MODERN fiat currency.

An asset's value re investment needs to be considered in terms of the RISKS. So you're going to just ignore all the risks with Bitcoin / crypto?

[Outcast_Searcher]

$100,000 laying around? Nice problem to have.
How about what it would take for you to survive with no additional income for a year?
High end earners have often leveraged out their expenses with high rents and high car payments etc. and paying minimums on those pesky credit card balances.
Cut off their income and in sixty days they are out of the apartment and their car has been repossessed. Hope Mom and Dad will still let you in.
The best defense is to own outright a modest house you can live in for just the utility bills and the property taxes knowing it takes a couple of years for back taxes to result in eviction. A good solid bank balance would not hurt a bit in such a situation but you have to take action to carry on once it is exhausted.

Good point. Far too few people, especially relatively young people, seem to understand the value of not being in lots of debt -- especially debt that can CRUSH you in short order if something goes wrong.

OTOH, lots of relatively young people think things like avocado toast, your likes on Facebook, etc. are substitutes for success, so there's that.

[Newfie]

$100,000 was just a tool to use to start the discussion. Its a reasonable amount to be someones entire life savings, something you need to protect but also access in reasonable amounts.

We personally are fairly well set, the result of a life time of hard work and some lucky investments and some straight up luck.

As things stand we own a 4 apartment building in Philadelphia, we have some retirement investments (IRA) and have social security. We are far from rich, but reasonably well off. Many filks will he in really deep trouble before us. Part of that is we live a low cost life style. And we are cheap. Not many folks would live as we do, yet we are happy.

Our 3 legged investment strategy gives us some stability but is not without risk. Years ago here we would talk about our bug out places and how to survive the collapse. Those old conversations are still relevant. How do you survive collapse?

Look at the turmoil in our culture because of this little bug. Corona highlights just how insecure we are; financially AND emotionally. A little bug and we freak out. Perhaps we freak out because we can afford to, a more serious threat would be met with more calm? Maybe, who really knows.

We should all he looking around to understand how vulnerable our systems have been shown to be. It would not take much of a shock to totally disrupt systems worldwide. It is inconceivable to us that the dollar or euro would collapse. But as Covid shows the inconceivable is possible. It makes sense to consider various possible futures And prepare for each - if possible.

[Newfie]

Plant,

Thats the thing, as ephemeral as it is bit coin has some intrinsic value, it is a rare item that can be uniquely identified.

Compare to gold
Gold is rare but can be mined, ditto bit coin - except there seems to be a faster diminishing rate of return. It keeps getting harder and harder to find solutions to the algorithm.

Hood can not he uniquely identified, it can be assayed to assure purity. But coins are absolutely unique and identifiable.

Money, dollars or Euros or pounds are not rare, they can be and are created from thin air.

Money can be counterfeited but that has gotten harder. But is not just printing more money government sanctioned counterfeiting?

Bottom line: bitcoin has more valuable traits than MODERN fiat currency.

An asset's value re investment needs to be considered in terms of the RISKS. So you're going to just ignore all the risks with Bitcoin / crypto?

Not at all, I don't have bit coin because of those risks. But there are also risks with money. You cant ignore those either. I see no risk free path. Best to diversify to spread your assets so that it is not all in one risk category.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Here is an old question of mine.

Lets say you have a spare $100,000 laying around. You do not want to keep it in cash, you want it to be useful in a collapse situation. So it needs to be portable and of sufficient intrinsic worth that it will not loose value AND it needs to be divisible into small units, so that you can buy a loaf if bread with it.

Real estate is a great investment, not portable or divisible. Gold is portable but hard to wack off $5 worth. I have no clue about bitcoin divisibility, I suspect you sell it, convert it to cash.

I find this a difficult question. The only thing I can think of that works would be either junk silver or ammo. 22LR would work reasonably well but is heavy. And for me traveling internationally it is often illegal.

Other thoughts appreciated.

Silver is the way to go, has more potential than gold (IMO) and you don't need that much...
https://www.apmex.com/product/196110/20 ... box-sealed

And if you only have a few thou lying around you want to protect/invest...
https://www.apmex.com/product/196106/20 ... onster-box

Great if it works. OTOH, what if a lot of the current values in precious metals come from all the concerns about Covid-19. When better treatments, effective vaccines, etc. render Covid-19 MUCH less of a threat in 2021 2H and 2022, THEN what, assuming the economy responds by returning to more and less normal, rendering the short term insurance value of silver, gold, etc. worth much less?

Obviously NOTHING about the future is certain, but this seems to be to be a substantial risk for those making large bets on PM's for a big gain short term.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Not at all, I don't have bit coin because of those risks. But there are also risks with money. You cant ignore those either. I see no risk free path. Best to diversify to spread your assets so that it is not all in one risk category.

Got it, and fair enough. Actually, diversification re asset allocation has been my core long term investing principle. I KNOW I'm not smart enough (or lucky enough) to try to confidently predict the future, especially re short term big moves of asset "X". Never have been, and never expect to.

[Newfie]

Good point. Far too few people, especially relatively young people, seem to understand the value of not being in lots of debt -- especially debt that can CRUSH you in short order if something goes wrong.

It may be more prevalent among the young but not limited to them. Many of my coworkers bringing down 6 figure salaries were very deeply into debt and not saving or even pulling down their retirement savings. I did not live their life style, did not drive their cars, did not have their house, etc. But now I’ve got my retirement.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Good point. Far too few people, especially relatively young people, seem to understand the value of not being in lots of debt -- especially debt that can CRUSH you in short order if something goes wrong.

It may be more prevalent among the young but not limited to them. Many of my coworkers bringing down 6 figure salaries were very deeply into debt and not saving or even pulling down their retirement savings. I did not live their life style, did not drive their cars, did not have their house, etc. But now I’ve got my retirement.

What pisses me off is how likely it is that the liberals will fund their retirement on the backs of responsible workers/investors, to buy votes.

At some point, the consequences that result from actions should matter.

[vtsnowedin]

It has always amazed me that people will trade up houses in their fifties and take on a new thirty year mortgage after their children are grown and gone. Or buy a "Vacation" home or time share while they still owe a lot on their first house due to repeatedly refinancing it and using the money for other things beside the improvement to the house. And then there are the four car garages with a car, a pickup, a boat , a four wheeler, a thirty foot RV,a motorcycle or two, and a snow machine or two etc.
Fixed retirement plans used to provide for half pay after thirty years of work and contributions. For that to work you need to have the big stuff paid off in full so half pay is adequate. I have managed that and today my largest monthly bill other then groceries is the bill for the two cell phones.
My state retirement plus social security amount to my making $16.50 an hour without having to go to work. I could not make payments on a house or RVs etc. on that But I am pretty comfortable.