[AdamB]

Leaked Data Show China’s Population Is Shrinking Fast

MADISON, WISCONSIN ― Even though everyone knows that China's official demographic figures are systematically overestimated, the authorities have consistently cracked down on anyone who questions the data. For example, my book "Big Country with an Empty Nest" was quickly banned when it appeared in 2007, because it voiced concerns about China's one-child policy and predicted that the Chinese population would begin to shrink in 2017, not in 2033-34, as Chinese officials and the United Nations' 2006 World Population Prospects (WPP) had projected.

Link

[Shaved Monkey]

Two years ago, he committed his diesel and gas-fired miner to net-zero emissions by 2040, 10 years ahead of his rivals. That was not enough, and nine months later he brought the target forward to 2030, more than halving the time his team has to deliver.

Then, not content with creating an emissions-free miner, a year ago Forrest added to his to-do list an aim for Fortescue’s customers - mainly hugely polluting Chinese steel mills - to have no net emissions by 2040.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/comp ... 5bjjo.html

This will be a nice thing if he achieves it

[vtsnowedin]

A china without US and other Western markets to sell to and buy from is a bankrupt economy. They can ill afford any serious nuclear exchange between Russia and the West.

[EnergyUnlimited]

A china without US and other Western markets to sell to and buy from is a bankrupt economy. They can ill afford any serious nuclear exchange between Russia and the West.

For about 5000 years they didn't need to trade with West to keep their economy going and future will be no different.
No arrangements are irreplaceable.

[vtsnowedin]

A china without US and other Western markets to sell to and buy from is a bankrupt economy. They can ill afford any serious nuclear exchange between Russia and the West.

For about 5000 years they didn't need to trade with West to keep their economy going and future will be no different.
No arrangements are irreplaceable.

Yes and for all of that 5000 years most lived in grinding poverty and were repeatedly thinned out by frequent famines and wars.

[Tanada]

A china without US and other Western markets to sell to and buy from is a bankrupt economy. They can ill afford any serious nuclear exchange between Russia and the West.

For about 5000 years they didn't need to trade with West to keep their economy going and future will be no different.
No arrangements are irreplaceable.

Yes and for all of that 5000 years most lived in grinding poverty and were repeatedly thinned out by frequent famines and wars.

When exactly did the elites in control of the country start caring about the consequences to the majority living in grinding poverty?

[vtsnowedin]

A china without US and other Western markets to sell to and buy from is a bankrupt economy. They can ill afford any serious nuclear exchange between Russia and the West.

For about 5000 years they didn't need to trade with West to keep their economy going and future will be no different.
No arrangements are irreplaceable.

Yes and for all of that 5000 years most lived in grinding poverty and were repeatedly thinned out by frequent famines and wars.

When exactly did the elites in control of the country start caring about the consequences to the majority living in grinding poverty?

1776

[Tanada]

For about 5000 years they didn't need to trade with West to keep their economy going and future will be no different.
No arrangements are irreplaceable.

Yes and for all of that 5000 years most lived in grinding poverty and were repeatedly thinned out by frequent famines and wars.

When exactly did the elites in control of the country start caring about the consequences to the majority living in grinding poverty?

1776

I was not aware the Chinese leadership had reformed themselves into humanitarian ethics so long ago, somehow I missed that in all my copious history studies. Hmm, I remember the fall of the elites and their displacement by the Europeans, the Opium wars where the last gasp of local leadership attempted to free their poor from the drug dens where European traders sold them drugs to keep them complacent and the period of the warlords in the post WW I era but somehow I missed out on the enlightened elites reforming how the poor of the Chinese society were ruled. Then came Mao Tse Dung and his campaign of communist collectivization and terror tactics. the massacre at Tienanmen Square and the modern era of state capitalism where the party pulls in foreign investment and houses peasant labor in awful dormitories to labor in squalor for low wages...

[EnergyUnlimited]

A china without US and other Western markets to sell to and buy from is a bankrupt economy. They can ill afford any serious nuclear exchange between Russia and the West.

For about 5000 years they didn't need to trade with West to keep their economy going and future will be no different.
No arrangements are irreplaceable.

Yes and for all of that 5000 years most lived in grinding poverty and were repeatedly thinned out by frequent famines and wars.

For most of last 5000 years West didn't even exist.
And for most of time it did, majority of people there were living in grinding poverty and endured frequent famines, epidemics and wars.
West overtaken China in terms of average human welfare for maybe 150-200 years but now it fades back to more usual arrangement with China gradually gaining dominant position.
If current trends prevail within 20-30 years China will again enjoy higher level of human welfare.

So for last 170 years US was winning:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/104 ... -all-time/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/104 ... -all-time/

But currently US has lower life expectancy than China:
https://qz.com/china-life-expectancy-ex ... 1849483265
ding ding!

[vtsnowedin]

What is the life expectancy of a Uyghar in China?

[Newfie]

Tanada,

There is no doubt China is an enigma, major policies are running in conflict.

There is string indication they do care about what the people think and need to shape that for success. Mayo spent his whole life in that pursuit. So they are at least somewhat sensitive to popular demand.

Today China has a large Han population that has been led to expect more and better. I read yesterday that the have experienced a 12 fold increase in wealth.

My Wife works with some mid-career Chinese therapist, they are quite Westernized in their attitudes.

I think Xi sees this as a problem and desires to retrench, no clue how he will make out.

[EnergyUnlimited]

What is the life expectancy of a Uyghar in China?

According to Chinese data it is ~74 years.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202107/1 ... 61c53.html
According to western data it is 10 years shorter than Han Chinese:
https://theconversation.com/what-chinas ... hurs-32383
So I guess, they live average around 70 years. Those who practice Islam in unlicensed environment probably few years shorter and those who don't - few years longer.
Those who are vocal about rights to practising unlicensed Islam may live very short and they lower average life expectancy.

What about Blacks in US?
What about White working class in Appalachian regions?

[vtsnowedin]

According to Chinese data it is

Poor blacks and poor Whites in the USA? Sure the data are negative but probably driven by both genetics and poor lifestyle choices, smoking, alcohol abuse etc.
But please leave off the China debate here . This is the Ukraine war thread.

[Newfie]

NOTE:

A number of posts above were transferred from the Russia/Ukraine thread and have that thread title. This remains the China thread.

Just a bit of clarification should one need it.

[vtsnowedin]

There has not been much news lately about China to talk about. I think they are watching the Russian collapse in Ukraine and are trying to find ways to avoid that fate.

[vtsnowedin]

There is this:

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Elon Musk says Beijing disapproved of him sending Starlink to Ukraine, wanted him to promise he wouldn't sell the satellite internet in China
Grace Kay
8 hours ago
SpaceX Starlink internet terminal next to CEO Elon Musk.
Elon Musk's (pictured right) SpaceX is increasing Starlink internet prices for all customers. Getty Images

Elon Musk told Financial Times China did not approve of his decision to send Starlink to Ukraine.
The Communist nation has also asked the billionaire not to sell Starlink in China, Musk said.
Musk has close ties with China — one of Tesla's top markets and export hubs.

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Elon Musk said China clearly disapproved of his decision to send SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet service to Ukraine.

The billionaire told Financial Times in a recent interview that Beijing asked for him to promise he wouldn't sell Starlink in China.

In February — two days after Russia invaded Ukraine — Musk sent Ukraine a shipment of Starlink satellite internet dishes. It was the first of many shipments to the country that has helped Ukraine stay connected amid Russia's attacks and a hack on the satellite provider for its military.

Early on, Ukraine officials and military leaders praised the move, with a US general saying Starlink "totally destroyed Putin's information campaign" and attempts to silence Ukraine President Zelenskyy.

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-mu ... ne-2022-10

[Newfie]

Biden admin has exerted some more stringent chip restrictions on China. The gist is that China is dependent upon Western technology for advanced chips. The West (USA) is tired of China stealing our tech and want to home-shore production.

Long Foreign Policy article follows.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/12/bi ... -decouple/

And a ytube from Peter Zeihan on the matter. Peter is a bit of a chicken little yet he has an interesting point, especially from his larger perspective.

https://youtu.be/tochLfjWuM4

[Newfie]

News from China is "interesting".

Formal government new releases state zero covid deaths in last 6 days.

Others report the hospitals are full and turning patients away. The typical patient, victum being in their 70's. Deaths estimated at over 5,000/day. New fears of supply line delays, Tesla factory closing, etc.

In the meantime China is sending squadrons of war aircraft into Tiawian air space, 71 yesterday.

Hard to know how to interpret all that.

[Outcast_Searcher]

A china without US and other Western markets to sell to and buy from is a bankrupt economy. They can ill afford any serious nuclear exchange between Russia and the West.

For about 5000 years they didn't need to trade with West to keep their economy going and future will be no different.
No arrangements are irreplaceable.

Yes and for all of that 5000 years most lived in grinding poverty and were repeatedly thinned out by frequent famines and wars.

When exactly did the elites in control of the country start caring about the consequences to the majority living in grinding poverty?

They'll only care if in sum, making them collectively angry seriously hurts their power base (or seriously threatens to do so), IMO.

China needs a decent economy, or much of its current citizenry will get VERY upset over time, re greatly reduced living standards. (It wouldn't matter re China's survival over time, but it would likely be VERY hard on the current power elite if millions of rioters in many cities greatly disrupt China's economy over time, for example).

China already has a pretty serious problem with its real estate crisis. It needs a decently functioning economy to pay that debt and keep consumer prosperity "reasonable", overall.

I believe THAT is MUCH of why China caved on its zero-Covid policies. A bad China economy also weakens the ability to fund military build-up, etc. over time.

So to me, it's not that they care about the citizenry, but they do care about their own power base, and the overall citizenry (and the collective work it does) has a significant impact on that over time.

(To the extent much of the modern global power base and country competition globally is a function of economic competition vs. direct military competition, it just highlights the absolute INSANITY of the risk v. reward trade-off in Putin's strategy re attacking Ukraine and not admitting when returns are diminishing). I think China's CCP apparatus is too smart to do that to themselves through blatant unforced error, which is one reason I don't see them attacking Taiwan any time soon.)

[Newfie]

Seems a lot of current thinking about the CCP is that it has been coopted by XI into one man, strong man rule. He has spent most of his 2 administrations pulling the government under his control and has done a lot to hurt their economic progress and to make China more reclusive. For many China watchers the main complaint is that XI has isolated himself, in much the same fashion as Putin. There is a whole cavalcade of bad economic decisions and in some areas charges of lying about fundamentals to cover up the mess. GDP growth is way off with little sign of improving. That he has backed off Zero Covid is interesting, it may indicate he has some flexibility. On the other hand it may be too little to late, people have started to doubt him and organize. Time will tell.

The Chinese curse, to live in interesting times.