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THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 22 Jul 2023, 20:26:56

theluckycountry wrote:
ralfy wrote:
Despite American efforts, China's influence grows as many nations remain neutral in the US-China contest.


Just a repeat of WWII. The British French and Americans sitting back watching as the axis powers radically armed themselves. Japan had more aircraft carriers than the US at the outset of war, I assumed they waited until they had a numerical superiority before they began their conquest of the Asiatic nations around them. Beware nations achieving numerical superiority.


In this case, the ones radically arming are trying to challenge the Axis powers, which in turn have not been sitting back and watching but doing the opposite.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 22 Jul 2023, 22:45:00

jato0072 wrote:Don't worry. I have just been informed by the Minister of Truth that the West is about to win in Ukraine. China will have to think twice when they see our proxy war power level! :lol:


Yes I read something to that effect too jato! About how the Lockheed Corporation will have a Huge win selling the obsolete General Dynamics F16 to the US government for shipment to Iraq ukraine. Here is some nice blurb off their website https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/f-16.html

The F-16 costs anywhere between $12.7 to $80 million, depending on the variant and the country purchasing the fighter jet. I assume Lockheed will go for the most expensive ones considering the US taxpayer is going to foot the bill, "no questions asked". Maybe hunter Biden can get oral-sex in the cockpit of one, distributing the vid online would take some of the sting out of the cost, we all know how the americans fawn over anyone with a leaked sextape. Hell he might even be President one day? Wouldn't that be something huh.

Only in the good ol USA.. can a kid with a multi-millionaire dad (and hidden offshore accounts).. get a break and maybe.. grow up to be President.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 26 Jul 2023, 06:18:56

Quoting my favorite analyst.

Today's new factoid is that youth unemployment in China is higher than in Italy (in percentage terms).

For context, Italy had the worst economic profile in Europe and has averaged negative economic growth for decades. If China's unemployment resembles Italy's, it is a very, very bad sign. Let's break this down in the context of manufacturing.

Phase 1. Everyone is reshoring and pulling investments from China. Young people are pursuing IT jobs instead of manufacturing jobs. The problem is that China is a closed system that sucks at all things tech.

Phase 2. Xi's cult of personality has ensured that China's labor force won't be able to develop into a value-add or tech-based system. Meaning everything will get significantly worse, and there's not much hope of it getting better.

Phase 3. Remember the last time something like this happened in the Chinese system? We ended up with the Tiananmen Square protests. While that triggered the change in the political system we see today, Xi's wiped away any opportunity for such change to happen now.

When a disconnect like this happens in the employment system, it inevitably translates over to the economic system. I'm not suggesting that this is the end, but this is how ends begin...

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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 29 Jul 2023, 08:21:53

An article about the significance of the new FM disappearing.

The new FM was warming relations with the West. Now they have hone back to the old “Wolf Warrior” FM. That is undercutting Di’s plan to restore the economy.

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023 ... ings-power
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 29 Jul 2023, 19:09:48

On a survey which shows that 50 pct of Americans see China as the greatest threat to the U.S.:

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/statu ... 5009686529

The biggest lesson here is on the extraordinary influence of US government policy on public opinions. The data couldn't be clearer: it is in 2018 when Trump decided to start the "trade war", stop engagement with China and start a confrontational policy (all continued by Biden) that negative sentiments started to shoot up.

This didn't correspond to a change in China, by that point Xi had been president for 5 years already. It corresponded to a concrete decision by the US to start viewing China as adversary number 1. Public opinions followed dutifully, aided by relentless negative coverage of China by the media.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 30 Jul 2023, 17:43:17

There is no doubt that we are all susceptible to persuasion via our media. Look how successful Stalin and Mao and NK have been using even less sophisticated technology.

We humans are not very advanced critters, we tend to followed the herd. :x
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby careinke » Sun 30 Jul 2023, 18:49:32

Newfie wrote:There is no doubt that we are all susceptible to persuasion via our media. Look how successful Stalin and Mao and NK have been using even less sophisticated technology.

We humans are not very advanced critters, we tend to followed the herd. :x


Luckily, we don't have to, and can resist the herd. Question everything.

Unfortunately, some very powerful people are claiming freedom of speech only applies to their "truth." Anything else is obviously misinformation and needs to be censored.

Fortunately, the U.S. founders enumerated another "right" immediately following the first right, so we can protect freedom of speech.

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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 30 Jul 2023, 18:57:51

Yes, true enough …. On an individual basis.

Taken as a nation? Not a chance.

I think the Founding Fathers anticipated such problems but not to this degree. Anyway, that is why they set up a representative government, so that the best and brightest among us could argue these points and the country would not rise and falk to every swell of public emotion.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 30 Jul 2023, 20:24:21

If human beings are by default part of a herd, and if the best and brightest not only make up a minority but are also the ones who manipulate the herd (i.e., this involves Trump and his political opponents, plus Wall Street which they both serve), then there's no point in talking about the Founding Fathers and representative government, or even Mao, Stalin, and North Korea.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby careinke » Mon 31 Jul 2023, 05:34:54

ralfy wrote:If human beings are by default part of a herd, and if the best and brightest not only make up a minority but are also the ones who manipulate the herd (i.e., this involves Trump and his political opponents, plus Wall Street which they both serve), then there's no point in talking about the Founding Fathers and representative government, or even Mao, Stalin, and North Korea.


Interesting opinion, you certainly have a right to it. :)

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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby jato0072 » Mon 31 Jul 2023, 16:46:05

I like the global super-organism description by Nate Hagens to describe our current human-technological fusion. Most of our modern lives are totally dependent on fossil fuels, electricity and high speed communication.

I also think Curtis Yarvin's "Cathedral" model is the best explanation for the brains and central nervous system of the super-organism.

As for China, I think they will continue to get stronger as the USA gets weaker. The only advantage the USA has left in the context of a global superpower is the $USD... for now.
"On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero."
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 31 Jul 2023, 20:20:23

careinke wrote:
ralfy wrote:If human beings are by default part of a herd, and if the best and brightest not only make up a minority but are also the ones who manipulate the herd (i.e., this involves Trump and his political opponents, plus Wall Street which they both serve), then there's no point in talking about the Founding Fathers and representative government, or even Mao, Stalin, and North Korea.


Interesting opinion, you certainly have a right to it. :)

Peace


Just following through from previous opinions.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 05 Aug 2023, 23:57:44

https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/statu ... 9080673280

Incredible numbers: "Nearly 20,000 scientists of Chinese descent who began their careers in the US have left for other countries, [with] an accelerated departure rate in the last 3 years coinciding with the launch of the China Initiative in 2018"

"Scientists of Chinese descent leaving the US at an accelerating pace"

https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/sci ... 31.article

https://twitter.com/AndyBxxx/status/1687682246067572736

Western media reports on China: a look back at the top stories!
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 17 Aug 2023, 11:10:00

Just listening to this brief video from Peter Zeihan about China’s Yellow River basin. Short 4 or 5 minute video.

He claims that in places the Yellow River bottom is several meters above the surrounding developed land. This is because they have constructed successively higher containment dikes over the centuries.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_River
The silts received from the middle reaches form sediments here, elevating the river bed. Excessive sediment deposits have raised the riverbed several meters above the surrounding ground. That is why this part of the river is called the 'Earth Suspended River'. At Kaifeng, Henan, the Yellow River is 10 meters (33 ft) above the ground level.[46]



https://youtu.be/eY1nJ5E22so

In California we have the Salton Sea created when the Colorodo river burst its containment. Its history is a fun read.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salton_Sea

The Yellow River scenario would seem to be a significantly bigger threat. Historic floods have killed up to 2 million.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 17 Aug 2023, 13:27:12

Newfie wrote:In California we have the Salton Sea created when the Colorodo river burst its containment. Its history is a fun read.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salton_Sea


We should have left well enough alone and let Lake Cahuilla refill in 1905! In case you are unfamiliar with the geological history,
Ancient Lake Cahuilla sustained life in the Valley

Most people think of the Salton Sea as an accident happening at the beginning of the last century. Though the current lake in Imperial County was the result of a break in a canal in 1905, the Colorado River was really just following its natural tendency to fill the Imperial Valley with water, something that has been going on for thousands and thousands of years.

The subsequent natural feature has become known as the Blake Sea, Lake LeConte, and most commonly, as ancient Lake Cahuilla.

No one knows for sure how long ancient Lake Cahuilla was part of the Southern California landscape. Geologists date the ancient shorelines to as early as 26,000 years ago. Archaeologists have evidence of humans living along the lake as far back as 2,500 years ago. The Kumeyaay say the lake may have come and gone, but it has always been a part of the landscape.

The ancient lake was formed by the natural flow of the Colorado River, on occasions when the course of the river altered its path to the Gulf of California, and instead found its way into the Salton Sink, filling what is now Imperial and Coachella valleys with water.

At its largest, Lake Cahuilla was 114 miles long, 33 miles wide and 315 feet deep. This is roughly 2,000 football fields long, 580 football fields wide and one football field deep. The lake’s surface was more than 2,000 square miles, six times the size of the present day Salton Sea.

It would take between 12 to 20 years for the lake to fill. After reaching approximately 40 feet above sea level, the lake would breach and the river would cut its way back to the ocean. It then took about 60 years for the lake to completely recede. The lake filled and receded at least five times between 700-1700 CE.

Living along the shoreline of Lake Cahuilla

Moving between the mountains and the shore of the large inland lake during summers, the Kumeyaay fished with bows and arrows, hooks made from stone or shells and built stone fish traps. For 1,000 years, a vibrant culture developed along the lake’s shorelines.

Organic materials do not survive over long periods of time in the desert. While we know that fiber from reeds growing along the marshy lakeshore, such as cattail and tule, were used for baskets, nets, cords, weapons and houses, it is the ceramics and lithics (stone tools) that have primarily been used to define the archaeological sites associated with the lake.

Bowls, jars and other ceramics were used to cook, carry water and store provisions. Projectile points were used as arrows and knives. A few Paleo-indian tools (large spear or dart points from the first people known to have been in North America by 11,500-11,000 BCE) have been found at archaeology sites associated with Lake Cahuilla.

The most evidence, however, points to a consistent occupation of the shoreline from 900 CE to Spanish contact in 1540 and then once again between 1600 and 1700.

Eating along the shoreline of Lake Cahuilla

Not only did the lake provide fresh drinking water, but it also supported a thriving ecosystem and was a source of abundant and varied foods.

Fish from the Colorado River, most commonly razorback sucker and bonytail chub, were so abundant that stone fish traps, still seen along parts of the lake shore, were regularly built to trap fish along the shorelines. Freshwater mollusks took the place of their oceanic ancestors as a food source while salt water mollusks were brought from the Pacific Ocean to make beads and jewelry and used in trade.

The shores were marshy and full of plants. Vast amounts of cattail, reed and bulrush (or tule) were not only habitats for small animals, but were food and sources of fiber themselves. Honey mesquite and seeds from bulrush and cattail were ground for food while tule was used in building houses.

The lake was a major stop for migrating waterfowl along the Pacific Flyway, just as the Salton Sea is today. American coot (also called mudhens), grebes, geese, ducks, herons and pelicans could all be hunted during this time. As the lake receded, the salinity of the water increased, and while it might have provided a source of salt for preserving foods, it would have also changed the types of fish that could live in it. The salinity killed the mollusks entirely.

Water has always been the most important aspect of life in the Imperial Valley. The issues we deal with today are, in many aspects, very similar to the issues that people dealt with for the last 10,000 years: A changing environment, an increasing population and the relationships of complex societies competing for increasingly limited resources.

The last remnant of the ancient lake was gone by the time Juan Bautista de Anza came through the Imperial Valley in 1774. But its memory lived on in the oral traditions of the Native Americans still living here. An uncontrolled Colorado River will naturally fill everything in the Imperial Valley that is below sea level.

LINK

It is rather like the Atchafalaya and Bayou LaForche on the lower Mississippi. Natural geology was changing the river into new channels but humans objected and have spent the last century plus throwing up dikes and barricades to direct the Mississippi and Colorado rivers where we want them, not where nature would place them. If they had let Lake Cahuilla refill the ecology of the Mojave region would be entirely different today than what it now is. Lake Cahuilla was the worlds ninth largest freshwater lake, it was about 2/3rds the size of Lake Erie and would have supported recreational activities, farm irrigation, fishing industries and waterfowl on a massive scale, but humans decided they knew better and stopped the shift. When the lake is full the Colorado flows out of its south tip down a currently dry ancient river bed into the Gulf of California which satisfies the river treaty between the USA and Mexico, not to mention that a natural lake is a much healthier reservoir than the artificial massive dam structure lakes we built on the Colorado instead of just letting nature take its course.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 18 Aug 2023, 15:55:29

Yes, we could spend some long time expanding on this thought.

For Pete.'s sake, leave stuff alone.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 20 Aug 2023, 20:14:14

So here’s the alternative view. China’s economic miracle is over. What’s been happening in the past week – the weakness of the currency, the fall in prices, the financial stress evident in the residential housing sector – are all signs of a deeper malaise that will require the ruling Communist party to undertake structural economic changes that will demand a loosening of rigid political control. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is a self-styled strongman who will not be prepared to make any concessions to freedom and democracy. Sooner or later, China will go the way of the Soviet Union.




https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... pse-growth
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sun 20 Aug 2023, 21:22:31

careinke wrote:
ralfy wrote:If human beings are by default part of a herd, and if the best and brightest not only make up a minority but are also the ones who manipulate the herd (i.e., this involves Trump and his political opponents, plus Wall Street which they both serve), then there's no point in talking about the Founding Fathers and representative government, or even Mao, Stalin, and North Korea.


Interesting opinion, you certainly have a right to it. :)

Peace


Dependency On The State Is The Core Of The Takeover Plot Of Humanity

Most of you have entered the final stage of your voluntary acceptance of mass slavery, and that slavery is fully dependent on the concept of fear, compliance to a false ‘authority,’ and total dependence on the very tyrant called government, whose plan is to control the world by controlling the common, ignorant, and apathetic collective crowd called ‘the people.’ The most vital component of this...

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/08/gar ... -humanity/

How does a person become a slave? They are captured, obviously, and then taken to a place where they are totally dependent on their Masters for their daily bread. They can rarely escape and even if they do what is their life like then? Living in isolation with no means of income or access to food.

This describes a large majority of people now in the west. Without their various social security payments they are starving. They are already in a sense slaves to an authoritarian government. Take away cash, so everything they need for life must pass through a central banking system and they are enslaved to that. Just look at what happens to people in China when the government withdraws or alters their social credit standing. They can't buy food, catch a bus, rent an apartment.

If you are a pensioner collecting SS then you are a slave to the government writing the cheque regardless of whatever concept you have of it being "your money". If the government decides to step on your rights, they don't exist anymore, that's been evident for decades.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 22 Aug 2023, 06:26:19

There are many forms of slavery. In the USA health care come gia your job. So here slavery has 3 shackles: marriage and kids, mortgage, health care. That pretty well ties you into the system.
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Re: THE China Thread pt 8 (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Tue 22 Aug 2023, 10:05:57

Even if you're done with kids and mortgage, there's still property tax or rent, no escape there either.
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