Thanks Dennis.
Your model output reminds me of my "artist's concept" from ca2012 of the Shark Fin curve. (I don't do math just graphics) The rationale being we flattened the peak and extended the plateau. The upshot is lower, longer peak/plateau but then steeper decline.
Ditto this, again from 2014-ish, the idea being fracking is a huge headfake to the market. The promise of happy motoring for the 10-? years of the boom as all the while, natural decline erodes the base resource. Then when the frack evaporates there is a large decline over a very few years, equal to LTO decline but also the C+C decline going on in the background unnoticed. This shows just the US but there has been declines globally as it turns out.
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Generally I'd think prices will remain low for a period as the economy tries to recover—or enters a tailspin. I assume there are LTO DUCs to blast and infill to fill in when demand and price does come up, but OPEC will have something to say about price, keeping it below LTO profit namely. Upshot is, your model of a peak around 2030 makes sense.
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Point is, without some forward thinking here in the US, consumers will do nothing toward greater mitigation because there will be no price signal to conserve. In fact, we're ending a period of gratuitous environmental deregulation —I hope— removing the flow restriction on multiple shower heads, put in place 25 years ago, is the perfect, idiotic, nonsensical example. Forty percent of the population has become so contrarian and anti-science, anti-everything that they would rather wear a surgical mask than admit GW or PO is a thing—and they'd rather die than wear a mask! LOL
Renewable energy has past the buggy-whip threshold, it's now the full cycle price winner, or close to it. That is a huge thing because it means reducing carbon is profitable to investors, not just "virtue signaling" by librals. What's good for fighting GW is good mitigation for PO. I don't think even the gop can stop RE now.
I think EVs are great. But they only have a tiny penetration in the US and maybe 2-3% globally, and that won't grow much during this low oil price period without government prompting. Again, half the US is not just unbelieving, but ideologically opposed, not just to "regulation" but to the entire premise of GW and will actively work to oppose the very mitigations required.
Sorry for the long post, that's what happens when I can't upload, LOL
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The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)