dcoyne78 wrote:The research suggests that anything tighter than 1000 feet will lead to too much well interference.
And what, in your mind, is "too much"? Because in a potentially infinitely variable price environment, one additional barrel at $20,000,000/bbl would be quite profitable, and we aren't talking about any single answer here, but a spectrum of answers based on each well's unique geology. Obviously I exaggerate for effect, but resource cost curves are curves for a reason.
dcoyne78 wrote: Much depends on the assumed oil price, if we assume a real Brent price of $200/bo in 2021 $ from 2025 to 2040, we would likely get a 75 Gb URR, if we assume the mean USGS estimate is correct, it could of course be too low, if we assumed the F5 estimate was correct (114 Gb TRR) then the URR might rise to 100 Gb to 110 Gb.
Don't assume. Calculate the answer for them all, assign probabilities to the prices based on whatever your instinct or someone else's experience tells you, and create answers based on that probabilistic price path.
dcoyne78 wrote:I doubt Brent oil prices in 2021 $ will rise to $200/bo for a sustained period (12 months or more), though $120/bo seems possible, it depends in part on the speed of the transition to electric transport, imo.
I was in industry when we doubted that prices could ever break $30/bbl. Except in the late 70's when doing reserve studies at the consulting firm I was with at the time, we escalated them in future looking price cases when trying to sell LPs. The Secretary of Interior once claimed just that, "never see $30 oil again", in the late 1990's. We've already seen both $150/bbl, and $0/bbl. And the speed of electric transport is a demand side effect, you haven't mentioned building in a dependency of price on demand effects yet, which is entirely a different dimensional complication. " I think electrics will do this to demand, and lessening demand will do this to price". Which then requires a recalculation of supply, as marginal barrels are taken offline, natural decline predominates, and it becomes a race between slowing demand, less supply, and potentially lower prices.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"