[charmcitysking]

After watching 'There Will be Blood' with my girlfriend this evening, I decided to log into my forums account here at Peakoil.com after a few years away from the boards.

I'll be honest - I haven't even checked the price of a barrell of Brent Crude in a long long time now. Probably around the last time I logged in here. I was so certain that TEOTWAWKI (I still remember some Peak Oil abbreviations!) was nigh after watching Confronting Collapse and creating this account 8 years ago. I was so very wrong.

Anyway - I logged in this evening and had a skim over the a few threads - great to see some familiar names still posting (Planty, RM, Tanada, Rockdoc - among others!).

SO - can I ask - where are we with Peak Oil? What is the current state of play? For the past 3 or so years, I have been completely tuned out of the Oil Patch and from the outside, it looks like BAU has proceeded uninhibited since I signed up here in July 2013. Are we on the infamous 'bumpy plateu' or are we no closer to peak now than we were in 2013?

I googled the price of Brent just now - 76 bucks. I guess the ETP Model never materialised .. Well, it feels good to be back. Glad to see that some of the 'auld shtock' (as they say here in Ireland) are still around and keeping this site going.

-Eamonn

[Pops]

It's about where you came in, a little more from Iraq and Fraq but otherwise treading water, or running faster to stay in place.

[jedrider]

Some of us think it is here and now.

[mustang19]

Peak oil was effectively in 2005

the-world-outside-america-has-been-in-peak-oil-since-2005-t78054.html

If the decline accelerates 1 percentage point a year then everyone dies in 2030.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Peak oil was effectively in 2005

the-world-outside-america-has-been-in-peak-oil-since-2005-t78054.html

If the decline accelerates 1 percentage point a year then everyone dies in 2030.

Ah, it IS the peak oil idiot (and totally wrong ETP idiot) shorty. The fount of all truth and intelligence.

In a few decades, he'll STILL be making random forecasts and claiming he's right any time now, so there's that.

And yet, by then, the vast majority of global ground transportation will be using some form of EV's, and he'll still be pretending "we'll all die soon" due to some random, fact free, forecast.

[Newfie]

I like this guys take on the situation.

It will peak, it must, timing is the tricky part.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2015/02/peak-what/

[AdamB]

I like this guys take on the situation.

It will peak, it must, timing is the tricky part.

https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2015/02/peak-what/

Tom approaches most things from a logically perspective, seems to like doing data analytics, but without even a veneer of the necessary economic or geoloigic perspective.

Which puts him in the category of yet another analyst who plays kick the can, because he can't operate in a multi-disciplinary fashion. Or learn from past mistakes.

Tom doing what he does now, back then. What is it they say about the broken clock, and for the life of me, why can't people recognize it in their own work?

[Newfie]

Well, he said timing is tricky.

He MAIN POINT is oil is a finite resource, it WILL run out some day. Which day? Now there is the question.

[AdamB]

Well, he said timing is tricky.

Doesn't everyone? Interestingly, you didn't see that caveat employed much during the scare 15 years ago. I'm not even sure most of those peaksters knew that Colin Campbell had already declared global peak back in 1990, and they were 15 years late to the party. Back in 2005, folks seemed far more certain about the peaker doom.

He MAIN POINT is oil is a finite resource, it WILL run out some day. Which day? Now there is the question.

Anyone who takes 10 seconds to learn something about oil knows that it is finite, if Hubbert explaining it in his 1956 work didn't make it obvious to the slow folks. The problem is McPeaksters want to accelerate a basic fact straight into some doomer porn scenario.

The answer to the question isn't as obvious as it seems. First we have to determine the independent variable. Because it isn't a bell shaped curve, or even the amount of oil in the ground. That is just a constraint on the total system.