Outcast_Searcher wrote:Gmark wrote:
I agree. The energy industry evolved completely from people trying to make money, and as things tighten in the future, I expect oodles of cash will be thrown at nuclear, geothermal electric, kerogen extraction, wind, solar, and ideas we haven't even thought of yet. Lots of that cash will be wasted, but that financial motivation might lead to something significant.
It's just a race now, to see if they can find some combination of technologies that will keep the air conditioner running before the lights go out.
So you're just discounting all green energy? And batteries?
There are a LOT of improvements being made over time in terms of relative cost and efficiency, even if it will be decades before green energy can run most of the A/C, for example.
So why are the lights "going out" and are you saying that will happen real soon, or someday, or something in between? (I believe in slow decline vs. the instadoom so many preach on this site. And I think much of the decline can be managed over time by having a smaller population IF people will wake up enough over time to accept that reality. What China has done recently re its rules for having children is not a good sign in the short term, of course.)
No, I'm not discounting green energy at all. Significant and valuable progress has been made. And old technology is much more efficient now.
But we have a long way to go. Where I live, wind power provides about 20% of the electricity. Solar isn't a very good option here, so wind has to increase, and storage technology has to develop.
Some people think oil production has peaked, others think there's another decade or more before the peak is reached.
But I think that just like investors threw money at Shale Oil, and most lost money in that, I think the same will happen with other technologies. Investment money isn't flowing into solar as much as it needs to, and maybe they don't think there's enough return, so they're looking for other technologies that will be the 'next big thing'.
And from the news, you can see that some investment funds think that MSR nuclear, or Geothermal electric, or other infant technologies could be a next big thing. These groups are hoping to have something by 2030. Maybe.
The WSJ story yesterday on the iron-air battery storage developed by Form Energy could also be a next big thing. I'm kind of hopeful for that since they seem to think they'll be operational by 2025 and that's a short enough timeline that we won't have to wait long to see if this technology has legs.
The progress made here isn't getting to the third world very quickly, and that's a concern. They are already facing lights going out.
I don't think it will be a collapse either, but I think it will be messy.