[JuanP]

OK- the serious answer: I believe a lot of the Club of Rome modeling was pretty good and has held up well considering how far back it was done (70's). It forecasts a lot of problems developing with a collision point somewhere around this decade. Fossil Fuels are the basis of civilization, not just for power & transport but chemicals and especially fertilizer. Allowing for errors of the CoR forecasts, I see the peak of oil and other FF's as occurring some time before 2050 and the downslope will be a steep decline. This will spur mass disruption and war.

Now this collapse will be far worse than any before in history. I believe our reliance on digital technology has made us extra sensitive to breakdown. Too many things that are controlled by computers will fail as power collapses. The population is fat, sick, and far removed from the farming, hunting skills needed to survive. The abundance of firearms will lead to mass killing and further collapse. Nuclear reactors will meltdown and nuke missiles may be launched in a misguided belief that we can have a limited nuclear war. Modern civilization has gotten out on an evolutionary limb and has lost generalist skills. We are far too specialized.

In short: we have lost many critical survival skills, we will lose too many resources too fast, we have too much firepower at our disposal when SHTF.

Excellent analysis! I agree that is a very likely outcome, allowing, of course, for many small possible changes here and there, but overall, very reasonable and logical.

[AdamB]

First, I should tell you that I am from the future. I come from 2234 and my outpost found a dig-site where a prepper from your time period held out. His skeleton was found next to a Remington rifle that had "PeakOil was right- suck it Adam" scratched on it.

[vtsnowedin]

If they dig me up they will find a note that says sorry buddy my children and grand children were wise enough to keep all my guns including my Ruger M77 with Leupold scope and the Winchester in 300 Win mag just to kick your sorry ass back where you came from.

[theluckycountry]

I was watching the vid of the Texas dude who shot that 20yo black guy that held up a taco restaurant. Classic, he emptied the criminals pockets and told the people to take back what was there's before calmly walking out to his rusty truck and driving off. If I lived in an American suburb it would have to be in Texas.

[AdamB]

If I lived in an American suburb it would have to be in Texas.

American by birth, Texan by the Grace of God.

[Plantagenet]

I was watching the vid of the Texas dude who shot that 20yo black guy that held up a taco restaurant. Classic, he emptied the criminals pockets and told the people to take back what was there's before calmly walking out to his rusty truck and driving off. If I lived in an American suburb it would have to be in Texas.

Unfortunately, Houston is run by the Ds and they've got a George Soros funded wacky far left D in charge of their city justice department.

As a result, the armed robber isn't even been held in jail----he has already been released on bail. Meanwhile the hero who stopped the robbery is now being investigated by a grand jury convened by the wacky far left DA so he can be prosecuted for stopping the robbery.

houston robber free on bail, houston hero to face grand jury

SHEESH!

[AdamB]

Unfortunately, Houston is run by the Ds and they've got a George Soros funded wacky far left D in charge of their city justice department.As a result, the armed robber isn't even been held in jail----he has already been released on bail.

Scientifically accurate, isn't that the claim? And mine was that you can't even read your own references, let alone those related to the subject?

The robber, who wasn't armed (it was a fake gun, he was pretending to be armed like you pretend to be scientifically accurate), died. You want to claim that his corpse was released on bail to dodge catcalls for what passes for "scientifically accurate" in your backwater part of the world?

Sheesh....

[theluckycountry]

Unfortunately, Houston is run by the Ds and they've got a George Soros funded wacky far left D in charge of their city justice department.

As a result, the armed robber isn't even been held in jail----he has already been released on bail. Meanwhile the hero who stopped the robbery is now being investigated by a grand jury [/url]

SHEESH!

Yeah I read all that, thing is the armed robber isn't on bail, he's dead! And if the DA had a case then the whore would have prosecuted already, the grand jury is just for show. That's the thing about the world we live in and down here it's not that different. There is the law and your Rights and then there is this propaganda that they sell to the public via the media to cower people down. Obviously the old guy hadn't watched much TV over the decades and knew it was his right, protected by law, to shoot any civilian that pointed a gun at him.

You never saw it on the lying TV but down here tens of thousands of people were arrested and charged for ignoring the covid lockdowns, thing is those people had all their cases dropped because there was no laws to back them up. Same with the masks, it wasn't by law that people wore them, and many didn't, it was by compliance with TV directions from talking heads in government.

At this stage of proceedings 90% of people simply believe what they are told by the media and obey regardless of what laws are in place, very sad. I'm going out to break the law in a couple of days myself There is a road up into the mountains just north me that has been closed for months, there are barricades up but enough room for a car or bike to go around, obviously to cater for the people who live up there. I believe it's a rockfall but I'm going up to see for myself because I used to ride there all the time.

It's illegal to drive up a closed road but I'll be going super early and the chances of me being caught are very slim that far from civilization. Why go? Why the hell not! It's not like it's armed robbery. And if you don't push the limits, like when you were young, you'll just end up a docile old fool waiting for them to shuffle you off to the nursing home. I see that all the time, gutless old men being dictated to by silly women and bossy doctors, pushed into doing things they know are wrong, all in the name of "getting along and not rocking the boat." If I lived in Texas I'd carry Two guns, and I'd practice every week.

[AdamB]

If I lived in Texas I'd carry Two guns, and I'd practice every week.

But you don't live in Texas, might not be able to use a gun any better than a straight line motorcycle rider can ride twistys, and the Chinese don't like their wage slaves having the balls or the ability to object to their subjugation, and you appear quite happy to live under those circumstances otherwise. So unless you can change your skill set, mind set, increase your riding abilities by and order of magnitude and grow a non mining colony type mind to replace the one you've got, you are probably right where you deserve, and are capable, of being.

American by birth, Texan by The Grace Of God. And of course we carry two guns, in case you run out of ammo on the primary and need a backup. Silly mining colony resident, pretending it is not SOP.

[ROCKMAN]

There is one problem with being armed here in Houston for self-defense. Been seeing develop here for the last 10+ years or so: the bad guys are anticipating armed potential victims. So instead of saying "Put your hands up and give me your money." they simply shoot the victim and take what they want. Also, when they sense any potential resistance. Getting to be more and more common in carjacking and convenience store hold ups as well as home invasions. That may have been a factor in that restaurant shooting: the shooter may have anticipated that if one customer had resisted, he would have been killed. And there's the natural fear that a bad guy might not to leave live witnesses behind.

Not sure how common it is in the rest of the country but in Houston we are having numerous road rage shooting every month. Too many folks with anger management problems carrying for self-defense. Sometimes it takes nothing more than honking your horn to get a few rounds heading your way.

I carry myself. Not my nature to shoot anyone to protect my property. Being partially handicapped in a power wheelchair I'm sure I look like easy prey. If they want my wallet I would pull it out my pouch and give it to them. Being carjacked is no worry either: just back my wheelchair away from steering wheel showing no driver's seat and interest would be quickly lost. LOL

OTOH if my or someone else's safety appears to be at risk pulling my snub-nosed .38 out of my pouch becomes an option. Something I doubt many bad guys would anticipate that. And had I been in that restaurant? I would have held it under the table waiting to see if the situation escalated. But I think I might understand our shooter: nine rounds fired rapidly seems like a panicked response. Not a surprise: a lot of practice at the range doesn't prepare someone for shooting at a live target that can shoot back.

[Newfie]

Well, you shoot to kill. Even a mortally wounded person can pull a trigger,

I have zero to say about the Texas incident as I have no knowledge of it. Just saying that once you decide to kill someone that is a very strong red line. And once crossed then it should be done comptently and completely because a wounded, or even scared, individual is likely to any damn thing and a poor job of killing may create more victums.it

I don't carry, no reflection on your decision. I just don't want to live where it is necessary.

IMO all this talk of concealed carry and "assualt" rifles does far more damage than good. The principal problem is illegal handguns including the whole supply chain. We have a number of ways to fight this but both parties choose not to.

The Philly DA is a prime example, he will not prosecute illegal gun crimes because there are too many people in prison. In the meantime the murder rate soars and he is reelected because his is a D party operative, no alternative, he is put in place by ward leaders.

[theluckycountry]

Trouble in LaLa land

Aussie house prices, some of the highest in the world, have tanked over 8% in the last year. That's an average of course, many have fallen a lot more. It's the biggest fall on record, driven mostly I suspect by the interest rate rises that have still to stop...

SYDNEY–Australian home prices have experienced their largest recorded decline, with further falls expected in the coming months should the central bank lift interest rates more. “The result takes the national housing downturn into new territory, breaking the previous record in peak-to-trough declines, when home values fell 8.38% between October 2017 and June 2019,” said Eliza Owen, CoreLogic Australia’s head of research.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realest ... r-AA167sUg

For nearly 40 years home prices here, city and rural, had doubled every decade. It was something investors counted on, but that trend has been broken now, smashed in fact. Like in most nations the scrub on the outer outer outskirts of the cities is still being bulldozed and crappy new developments are being built. God knows who's buying them though?

We are fast reaching the point I think where people will realize that the cheap energy needed to make these far out hell-holes viable is gone. The homes are made of pine-wood, plumbing is cheap plastic, the roads have a skim of blacktop that will crumble in a decade or less. These new burbs are like Potemkin villages, just a facade of quality over a mass of substandard building and infrastructure. Water is pumped in from dams 50 miles away, garbage removed to places 50 miles away. Then there is the transport costs! Aside from local supermarkets and perhaps a hardware, the booze outlets and fast food etc, there are no jobs near them, no industry, no business houses. In the future the ability of the inhabitants to drive off to a job 30 miles or more away will be severely curtailed.

Car pooling is great if you are all going in one direction but that is never the case in our modern world. It's amazing how many people drive past businesses on their way to a far off job, just to pass other drivers, from far away, coming to work at those same businesses. The Chinese model of factory dormitories is oppressive in the extreme, but it's logical. Australia is a big open place, it's very dependent on the car and cheap fuel.

[Newfie]

I believe Canada is a even more extreme example. Heating is killer


https://www.statista.com/statistics/383 ... y-country/

[yellowcanoe]

I believe Canada is a even more extreme example. Heating is killer


https://www.statista.com/statistics/383 ... y-country/

Yes, indeed. The average Canadian home needs substantially more energy for heating than the average American home. It doesn't help that insulation standards in the building code haven't changed much since the energy crisis in the 70's. We also have a Federal government that is very focused on growing our population and the economy which means a lot of construction of low density detached houses far away from where jobs are located. As more natural gas is being exported from North America it is starting to impact the price we pay for gas. My wife and I are on equalized billing and our monthly bill recently jumped from $71 to $116.

[AdamB]

OTOH if my or someone else's safety appears to be at risk pulling my snub-nosed .38 out of my pouch becomes an option.

Rock!! You're a Texan, and you go with a .38!! Surely you must carry something...more modern...as a backup piece? A Glock 17? S&W M&P 2.0 in 45ACP?

And had I been in that restaurant? I would have held it under the table waiting to see if the situation escalated. But I think I might understand our shooter: nine rounds fired rapidly seems like a panicked response. Not a surprise: a lot of practice at the range doesn't prepare someone for shooting at a live target that can shoot back.

Practice at the range should have involved some multi-shot practice, but the adrenaline can certainly play tricks on even a practiced response. I couldn't believe it when certifying for a CC permit they TAUGHT two center mass and then one between the eyes to make sure. Holy Cow!! In Louisiana many years ago (and a few other states I've lived in) shot #1 would be considered a-okay for stopping something bad from happening, but everything after that could garner a manslaughter charge if the DA wanted to charge you. Overkill with an extra 8 rounds...yikes!! Fortunately, laws have changed and shooting until basically all physical motion ceases is common and allowed nowadays. So...9 rounds....he might have been twitching after #8...and that about justifies #9. Weird...different from yesteryear....but better, legally, for the person perforating the perpetrator.

A 38....Rock! Your a Texan! Upgrade! A S&W Shield 2.0, 9mm, ported barrel, fiber optic sights for old eyes like mine and maybe yours, 13 rounds in the midsized mag, and then you can hide a real gun somewhere else on the wheelchair!

[AdamB]

Well, you shoot to kill. Even a mortally wounded person can pull a trigger,

And that is about the way the laws have evolved.

I don't carry, no reflection on your decision. I just don't want to live where it is necessary.

It is almost never necessary. Someplace like Haiti where government and social order has about collapsed it might be necessary. In most other places it is just a choice. When bad people decide to do bad things, I'm quite happy running away like everyone else, I'm not in a wheelchair yet. Alternatively, if running away isn't available, I like having something other than my cell phone in my hand to fend off bad actors.

[AdamB]

The Chinese model of factory dormitories is oppressive in the extreme, but it's logical. Australia is a big open place, it's very dependent on the car and cheap fuel.

Well, certainly you can speak on this topic as an authority. Can't you get/vote the politicians out that have cursed your country with this kind of development, this kind of dependency on export dollars just to feed the ChiCom beast?

[Outcast_Searcher]

Trouble in LaLa land

Aussie house prices, some of the highest in the world, have tanked over 8% in the last year. That's an average of course, many have fallen a lot more. It's the biggest fall on record, driven mostly I suspect by the interest rate rises that have still to stop...

Why is housing prices falling somewhat such a big problem. With all the complaining about housing prices rising, one would think housing prices falling to more moderate levels (without an outright rapid crash) would be a WELCOME thing, lowering the longer term average price appreciation toward something more reasonable.

And yeah, I get it that an individual wanting to sell might lose some money -- but that's the way life works with ANY investment that's not fixed in price, and houses are investments -- just ones people can live in. (And even currencies vacillate relative to each other, commodities, etc, so holding a bank account over time is VERY MUCH an investment, whether the account holder realizes it or not).

[vtsnowedin]

While the price of housing is declining because of rising interest rates the cost to"own" ,meaning the size of the monthly combined cost of, principle plus interest plus property taxes is still going up and at a pretty fast clip. Those with a thirty year fixed at less then three percent interest will not sell unless they are under some emergency situation as they can't find a buyer willing to pay what they paid for it one or two years ago. Those looking to buy will find few good homes at fair prices and will probably be better off continuing where they are now while saving up for a down payment for when this settles back in a couple of years.

[ROCKMAN]

Newfie - The big problem with popping off 9 rounds in a crowded restaurant is that all 9 rounds are going to hit something: the bad guy, the wall...or another customer. Even rounds hitting the bad guy can be pass thru's that hit a customer. Most poorly trained will load autos with full metal jackets that can easily pass thru a couple of sheet rocked walls...very bad choice for home defense. Two well aimed 9 mill rounds with the right bullet design would have put the bad guy down quick. And if you didn't see the video the distance looked to be about 4' or so. You didn't need to be John Wayne to make that shot. LOL.

Adam - My small pouch can only handle the sub nose...no pockets on wheelchair. Two rounds center mass with a .38 with soft lead hollow points. At any range I would likely shoot almost instantly lethal. Been a while but I've been shot at...a lot. So, panicking wouldn't be a problem since I don't take it personal anymore. But at home it's a .45 Long Colt with 225-grain bullets having a muzzle velocity of 960 feet-per-second with 460 foot-pounds of energy. And carrying a very antipersonnel bullet. One round more than sufficient at 10'. Kicks like a mule but second shot recovery doesn't worry me for obvious reason.