C8 wrote:OK- the serious answer: I believe a lot of the Club of Rome modeling was pretty good and has held up well considering how far back it was done (70's). It forecasts a lot of problems developing with a collision point somewhere around this decade. Fossil Fuels are the basis of civilization, not just for power & transport but chemicals and especially fertilizer. Allowing for errors of the CoR forecasts, I see the peak of oil and other FF's as occurring some time before 2050 and the downslope will be a steep decline. This will spur mass disruption and war.
Now this collapse will be far worse than any before in history. I believe our reliance on digital technology has made us extra sensitive to breakdown. Too many things that are controlled by computers will fail as power collapses. The population is fat, sick, and far removed from the farming, hunting skills needed to survive. The abundance of firearms will lead to mass killing and further collapse. Nuclear reactors will meltdown and nuke missiles may be launched in a misguided belief that we can have a limited nuclear war. Modern civilization has gotten out on an evolutionary limb and has lost generalist skills. We are far too specialized.
In short: we have lost many critical survival skills, we will lose too many resources too fast, we have too much firepower at our disposal when SHTF.
Excellent analysis! I agree that is a very likely outcome, allowing, of course, for many small possible changes here and there, but overall, very reasonable and logical.