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Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Revi » Mon 18 Oct 2021, 20:16:32

I'm really flattered that Adam B picked me to troll on.
I think peak oil could do a lot to help us out actually. As the oil supply dwindles it becomes less and less fun to go out in a monster truck and make a mess. All the people wave with just one finger as they go passing by. Maybe some of the people still flying around might chill on that a bit. We might just end up using less oil overall. That's got to be good for the climate.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 18 Oct 2021, 22:57:31

Revi wrote:I'm really flattered that Adam B picked me to troll on.
I think peak oil could do a lot to help us out actually. As the oil supply dwindles it becomes less and less fun to go out in a monster truck and make a mess. All the people wave with just one finger as they go passing by. Maybe some of the people still flying around might chill on that a bit. We might just end up using less oil overall. That's got to be good for the climate.


Peak oil will certainly be good for the environment, regardless of why it happens. Whenever it gets around to happening. 2018 is the 6th claim of it this century Revi, you figure maybe, this time, finally, thank god,it will be true?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Revi » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 01:11:30

Yes, I figure this time it might be true. Maybe it was true all along. It takes a while for things to go awry.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 10:35:27

Revi wrote:Yes, I figure this time it might be true. Maybe it was true all along. It takes a while for things to go awry.


You are putting the cart before the horse as it were. Few claimed that peak oil happens, and then the world relaxes gently into a new paradigm over years or a decade. That is an after the fact caveat when it supposed happened in 2005, and folks had to wait to 2008 to pretend the effects showed up.

This is what it was claimed to be in the moment.

It is why doomers liked it so much. No fuel...stuff stops working. No lackadaisical, slow motion, "gee give it a couple decades and maybe we'll notice". I imagine doomers were quite irritated when their backup plan of climate change doom didn't have the instant kick. Except Guy "Let Me Grief Counsel You Honey" McPherson, who just proclaimed BOE tomorrow afternoon or so and has been milking the grief counseling gig for all sorts of side benefits for more than a decade now. :)

Candy is dandy, but grief counseling was handy, might be his motto.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby noobtube » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 15:00:54

Let's compare 2005 to 2021.

supply chains are breaking down;
cars are not selling and prices soaring;
retail shelves are going empty;
lost another war, this time in Afghanistan;
China and Russia are joining hands despite Washington;
India defies Washington on China, while Turkey and Saudi Arabia made deals with Russia;
gender wars, low marriage rates, low birth rates;
the dummies voted for a senile degenerate as President with his Indian woman;
gas prices going up up and away with no sign of coming back down...

yet the typical 'MURICAN idiot still can't see this is what happens in a collapse.

Fine by me. It makes it so much easier to prepare. Prepping is a lifestyle. The normies and the everything-is-fine idiots thought I was extreme in 2011. Now, they come to me because I am the only adult in the room and I have a clue.

On a site called Peak Oil, and you still have these nothing-is-wrong types posting. Amazing.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 15:29:40

noobtube wrote:On a site called Peak Oil, and you still have these nothing-is-wrong types posting. Amazing.


On a site called Peak oil, and you still have these the-world-ending-again types posting. Amazing.

You might not have noticed noobtube, in your rush to claim any event as the rapture event you've been wet dreaming over for a decade now, but JIT problems aren't peak oil, nor are they lack of goods. They are lack of JIT delivery. Because of the pandemic, and resulting expectations of expected demand post vaccine gone wrong, these expectations then flowing out in the form of unexpectedly fast demand recovery through the supply chain.

Please don't valid the opinion that peak oilers, who didn't know much at all about resource economics 15 years ago (or geology, or petroleum engineering, or economics at large), also don't know anything about the consequences of JIT delivery and global pandemics, how bout that? Isn't 31 years of egg on face enough already?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 16:58:52

noobtube wrote:Let's compare 2005 to 2021.

supply chains are breaking down;
cars are not selling and prices soaring;
retail shelves are going empty;...

...gas prices going up up and away with no sign of coming back down...

yet the typical 'MURICAN idiot still can't see this is what happens in a collapse.
On a site called Peak Oil, and you still have these nothing-is-wrong types posting. Amazing.


I assume some are trolls, some work for the oil majors, and some are just frogs in pots of hot water. It is difficult for some to see many of the changes though, especially since the corona virus is being used to mask them. That was good timing on the establishment's part, just as it was becoming obvious that all the renewables were abject failures, along comes and external disaster to take the blame for collapsing living standards. I wondered how they would rein in oil consumption once the economies reignited, but it was simple, just push the price way up and blame it on... The Virus!

Of course if you believe the government told the truth about it then you can safely curl up in your bed and wait for the Hydrogen economy or those Fusion reactors.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 17:14:31

theluckycountry wrote:I assume some are trolls,

you mean AdamB?

some work for the oil majors,

you mean AdamB?

and some are just frogs in pots of hot water.

you mean AdamB?

It is difficult for some to see many of the changes though

you mean AdamB?

Sorry AdamB, I couldn't resist. :-D No hard feelings, we all know you're fighting the good fight against doom.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 17:39:17

theluckycountry wrote:
noobtube wrote:Let's compare 2005 to 2021.

supply chains are breaking down;
cars are not selling and prices soaring;
retail shelves are going empty;...

...gas prices going up up and away with no sign of coming back down...

yet the typical 'MURICAN idiot still can't see this is what happens in a collapse.
On a site called Peak Oil, and you still have these nothing-is-wrong types posting. Amazing.


I assume some are trolls, some work for the oil majors, and some are just frogs in pots of hot water.


I was accused of being a CIA plant once, does that count?

It is standard fare, claiming a well informed dissent is a insidious plant, because OBVIOUSLY if they had read your Bible, they would have your faith based belief system and couldn't DARE to be a denier of The Dogma Of Doom. The most recent one, not all the other ones claimed that didn't happen that we don't like to talk about.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 17:48:46

mousepad wrote:Sorry AdamB, I couldn't resist. :-D No hard feelings, we all know you're fighting the good fight against doom.


No offense taken. Frogs, trolls, oil folk is pretty normal. I like the CIA one best.

Ever time I nail my 95 theses to Hubbert's ideas, Colin's continuation of them, or the deceased remnants of just the 5 prior peak oils this century, the faithful react as expected. Give Me My Dogma Or Else!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby noobtube » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 18:42:09

AdamB wrote:
noobtube wrote:On a site called Peak Oil, and you still have these nothing-is-wrong types posting. Amazing.


On a site called Peak oil, and you still have these the-world-ending-again types posting. Amazing.

You might not have noticed noobtube, in your rush to claim any event as the rapture event you've been wet dreaming over for a decade now, but JIT problems aren't peak oil, nor are they lack of goods. They are lack of JIT delivery. Because of the pandemic, and resulting expectations of expected demand post vaccine gone wrong, these expectations then flowing out in the form of unexpectedly fast demand recovery through the supply chain.

Please don't valid the opinion that peak oilers, who didn't know much at all about resource economics 15 years ago (or geology, or petroleum engineering, or economics at large), also don't know anything about the consequences of JIT delivery and global pandemics, how bout that? Isn't 31 years of egg on face enough already?


To you it's just a temporary blip. You have a first-world mentality. I get it. Your belly is full so why worry about tomorrow? But, that world doesn't really exist, unless you have people to sacrifice. And, those people are disappearing fast.

I remember in January 2020, I had the flu. It was bad... really bad. It was the third time in 1 year. I realized that 'MURICANS were so complacent at the time, that I told everyone who came in contact with me, that I had the flu and was very sick.

At the Post Office, they almost seemed insulted that I would try to warn them.
At the fast food place, they acted as if I told them fruit grew out of my head.

Each time I told them, I was trying to warn them to take precautions. Did they listen? Nope.

Another prepper told me that they wouldn't listen until after the Super Bowl. Whatever the government was going to pull, it would be after that, since 'MURICANS love their football.

Fast forward to March, 2020. The GUB-MINT screamed about a health scare. These same people lost their minds staying home, wearing diapers on their faces, and washing everything in sight.

When I told them, I was crazy. When the GOOBERMINT told them, now it was real.

Another story. After the government shutdown of 2018-2019, I told everyone close to me that shortages were coming. Buy and stock up on anything essential that has a long shelf-life (clothing, equipment, materials, toilet paper, etc.). For a solid year, nothing happened. Once the lockdowns hit, a lot of those people suffered for lack of preps and savings. I could only marvel with another prepper how people are so DAMNED hard-headed, when it comes to their own lives.

After the lockdown, May 2020, I bought like crazy. There was a glut of unsold, top-notch stuff, because 'MURICANS were not prepared for the massive opportunity that those full-to-overflowing store shelves offered.

Fast forward to 2021, shortages everywhere. But, I am more than set for years. In fact, now I can help others who I DECIDE are worth it. No way am I subsidizing morons who think they know-it-all and don't listen and don't cooperate.

People like you just aren't good for society because you expect others to do the hard work and make the sacrifices while you enjoy the benefits.

Peak Oil can't afford people like you.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 19:38:33

noobtube wrote:
AdamB wrote:You might not have noticed noobtube, in your rush to claim any event as the rapture event you've been wet dreaming over for a decade now, but JIT problems aren't peak oil, nor are they lack of goods. They are lack of JIT delivery. Because of the pandemic, and resulting expectations of expected demand post vaccine gone wrong, these expectations then flowing out in the form of unexpectedly fast demand recovery through the supply chain.


To you it's just a temporary blip. You have a first-world mentality. I get it. Your belly is full so why worry about tomorrow? But, that world doesn't really exist, unless you have people to sacrifice. And, those people are disappearing fast.


What do you mean by sacrificing people? Third Worlders, or just what the US does to prisoners and whatnot? Or are you just a Walking Dead series fan?

noobtube wrote:After the lockdown, May 2020, I bought like crazy. There was a glut of unsold, top-notch stuff, because 'MURICANS were not prepared for the massive opportunity that those full-to-overflowing store shelves offered.

Fast forward to 2021, shortages everywhere. But, I am more than set for years. In fact, now I can help others who I DECIDE are worth it. No way am I subsidizing morons who think they know-it-all and don't listen and don't cooperate.


So..you predicted the current JIT problems? Good for you. All I did was take advantage of ammo prices dropping once the early and mid pandemic calmed down. Turns out, JIT delivery are JIT delivery issues. Not energy problems.

noobtube wrote:People like you just aren't good for society because you expect others to do the hard work and make the sacrifices while you enjoy the benefits.


I enjoy benefits of not being a Third World citizen, true. As do most on this board I imagine. Sounds to me like you've got a beef with what First Worlders have managed to do, compared to, for example, the non-OECD crew. If it bothers you so much, might I recommend an immigration plan of some sort?

noobtube wrote:Peak Oil can't afford people like you.


In what way? Those of us who knew it was a crock spanning the prior 15 years at least haven't discredited ourselves, should we decide that it finally has. The gang repeating the dogma aren't going to be the ones who see it coming when it finally arrives, that gang see's it every Sunday morning, just as they are told by the Priests of Peak. It is what acolytes are supposed to do...blind obedience. Peak oil needs those of us who can think for ourselves.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby noobtube » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 20:43:39

AdamB wrote:What do you mean by sacrificing people? Third Worlders, or just what the US does to prisoners and whatnot? Or are you just a Walking Dead series fan?


Yep. The prisoners, the Chinese, the Venezuelans, the Africans, in fact, the rural 'MURICANS have all been sacrificed to fill your belly. You make up bullshit, pointless jobs (regional, district, marketing coordinator/NFL head coach/psychologist/broker) to justify your existence. Everyone is a sales executive, or vice president, or consultant. But all you do is just WASTE the world's resources, producing nothing of lasting value.

That is why you have the GREAT RESIGNATION. Young people realize most 'MURICAN jobs are pointless.

I've been watching this for years and been fascinated by it. No way it could last. And it didn't.

And, what is with all this feminist, homosexual nonsense the media is fixated on promoting?

Every other moron thinks he is going to get rich on the stock market, the internet, or cryptocurrency. And, for what? Just to WASTE more of the world's resources being a self-important, hard-headed, know-it-all 'MURICAN? It is an endless loop of escalating WEALTH destruction.

So while the idiots chase that stupid crap, I see lots of opportunity to get the stuff that matters. You give me confidence that I still have time.

AdamB wrote:So..you predicted the current JIT problems? Good for you. All I did was take advantage of ammo prices dropping once the early and mid pandemic calmed down. Turns out, JIT delivery are JIT delivery issues. Not energy problems.


I stocked up in 2019. Way ahead of you... again.

You don't understand that everything is connected. And, that is why you can't understand how I knew shortages were coming years in advance.

My understanding of Peak Oil is greater than yours. My benefits will come at the cost of people like you.

Just to show I'm not ungrateful, thank you for your sacrifice.

AdamB wrote:I enjoy benefits of not being a Third World citizen, true. As do most on this board I imagine. Sounds to me like you've got a beef with what First Worlders have managed to do, compared to, for example, the non-OECD crew. If it bothers you so much, might I recommend an immigration plan of some sort?


So, I am supposed to give up all my preps why exactly? I'm already living like a Third World citizen, so why would I WASTE resources doing something that is already being done.

It is the FIRST WORLD losers who live like FIRST WORLDers that are the sole and total problem here. Show some self-control and discipline and quit acting like a Karen.

AdamB wrote:
noobtube wrote:Peak Oil can't afford people like you.


In what way? Those of us who knew it was a crock spanning the prior 15 years at least haven't discredited ourselves, should we decide that it finally has. The gang repeating the dogma aren't going to be the ones who see it coming when it finally arrives, that gang see's it every Sunday morning, just as they are told by the Priests of Peak. It is what acolytes are supposed to do...blind obedience. Peak oil needs those of us who can think for ourselves.


You say Peak Oil is a crock because you want to continue to consume resources like a whale, while the rest of the world consumes like a dolphin.

The world cannot support 300 Million 'Murican WHALES indefinitely. 2019 was the end of that period. Young people realized they have to drastically reduce their consumption to make it to the end of their natural lives.

Live expectancy is declining. Health care access is being reduced. Food options are diminishing.

Yet, you think it is business as usual. This is the 21st century not the 20th. The American Century is over and it is never coming back.

You aren't going to last long in this new reality, with your attitude. And, I (or someone like me) will be their to scavenge what remains.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Oct 2021, 23:05:34

noobtube wrote:
AdamB wrote:What do you mean by sacrificing people? Third Worlders, or just what the US does to prisoners and whatnot? Or are you just a Walking Dead series fan?


Yep. The prisoners, the Chinese, the Venezuelans, the Africans, in fact, the rural 'MURICANS have all been sacrificed to fill your belly.


Please elaborate. There are plenty of labels on food and cars that say "no poor people or bunny rabbits were harmed making this product", or words to that effect. And I WAS a rural 'MURICAN', and never noticed the buses rounding up my friends and neighbors to be sacrificed on the altar of...whatever.

noobtube wrote:You make up bullshit, pointless jobs (regional, district, marketing coordinator/NFL head coach/psychologist/broker) to justify your existence. Everyone is a sales executive, or vice president, or consultant. But all you do is just WASTE the world's resources, producing nothing of lasting value.


Now you are just making crap up. You might not need an MRI today, or use a computer, the internet or even an old fashioned landline, but the users don't usually consider these "nuttin".

noobtube wrote:I've been watching this for years and been fascinated by it. No way it could last. And it didn't.


Please elaborate on "this".

noobtube wrote:You don't understand that everything is connected. And, that is why you can't understand how I knew shortages were coming years in advance.


Oh horseshit. You are now claiming the same genius as a broken clock being right twice a day. I knew the price of gold would go up when I bought some in 1981, and guess what? It did! Took awhile, but only through my own sheer genius did I know this would happen!

noobtube wrote:My understanding of Peak Oil is greater than yours.


I can state, to within approximately a 1 in 500 million chance , that this isn't true. :) Because I'm betting I can name my 14 colleagues, assuming a global population of approximately 7.5 billion recently. And none of them are slack jawed silly about the wonders of being Third World, or are themselves.

noobtube wrote:You say Peak Oil is a crock because you want to continue to consume resources like a whale, while the rest of the world consumes like a dolphin.


I was saying peak oil was a crock 15 years ago and it had nothing to do with what I wanted. Its called logic and reason and science and stuff, wanna be Third Worlders probably wouldn't underatand.

noobtube wrote:Yet, you think it is business as usual. This is the 21st century not the 20th. The American Century is over and it is never coming back.


Could be. But odds are it'll take awhile yet before we aren't the king of the hill.

noobtube wrote:You aren't going to last long in this new reality, with your attitude. And, I (or someone like me) will be their to scavenge what remains.


Nah. Like I didn't learn how to deal with half witted braggarts in the hills of Appalachia, where us 'MURICANS' lived like 3rd Worlders, grew and cooked our own food, and only discovered what the First World was when we left. Now, my KIDS....they could no more skin a squirrel than use a rifle to acquire it.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 20 Oct 2021, 17:05:01

Revi wrote:I think peak oil could do a lot to help us out actually. As the oil supply dwindles it becomes less and less fun to go out in a monster truck and make a mess. All the people wave with just one finger as they go passing by. Maybe some of the people still flying around might chill on that a bit. We might just end up using less oil overall. That's got to be good for the climate.


Peak Oil looks like it isn't going to arrive right away.

Right now oil production looks set to go up steadily over the next decade

BBC: Fossil fuel production set to soar over next decade

This is no surprise to me. If you go back and look at the phony Paris Accords climate treaty and actually read what it says, the world agreed in 2015 that oil production and coal production were going to go up for the next couple of decades. Obama even signed separate treaties with China and India before the Paris conference putting the backing of the United States behind the plans of China to increase oil and coal consumption dramatically.

So buckle up and get used to it. You have to ignore all the phony rhetoric about climate change coming from the likes of Biden and the Ds and obama before him, and look at what the treaties actually say governments are going to do. And what the phony fraudulent 2015 UN Paris climate accord actually says is the world's governments are planning to continue to boost fossil fuel production and CO2 releases to the atmosphere for at least 1-2 decades more.

Image
Ignore the lies and blather coming from Biden and the Ds about cutting fossil fuel use.....this is what Obama and Biden actually signed the world up to do in the 2015 Paris accords......

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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 20 Oct 2021, 17:38:33

The world is acting just like I thought post PO
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 20 Oct 2021, 17:45:20

Armageddon wrote:The world is acting just like I thought post PO


So you anticipated oil production would go up after Peak Oil occurred?

I must say....you have a very flexible definition of peak oil if it doesn't depend on how much oil is being produced.

Because right now oil production looks set to go up steadily over the next decade.....at least according to what world governments are saying.

BBC: Fossil fuel production set to soar over next decade
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 20 Oct 2021, 19:04:54

Plantagenet wrote:
Armageddon wrote:The world is acting just like I thought post PO


So you anticipated oil production would go up after Peak Oil occurred?

I must say....you have a very flexible definition of peak oil if it doesn't depend on how much oil is being produced.

Because right now oil production looks set to go up steadily over the next decade.....at least according to what world governments are saying.

BBC: Fossil fuel production set to soar over next decade
Cheers!



With the US shale production declining rapidly, where is all this new production going to come from? I admit, I’ve been wrong about PO since 2006, so I could easily be wrong again.
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 20 Oct 2021, 22:42:44

Armageddon wrote:With the US shale production declining rapidly, where is all this new production going to come from?


Image

Armageddon wrote: I admit, I’ve been wrong about PO since 2006, so I could easily be wrong again.


Image
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Peak Oil is Coming. That Won't Save the World

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 20 Oct 2021, 23:38:48

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:With the US shale production declining rapidly, where is all this new production going to come from?


Image

Armageddon wrote: I admit, I’ve been wrong about PO since 2006, so I could easily be wrong again.


Image



I may have underestimated the US shale production, but I don’t think it’s sustainable. The US is in decline now.
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