Speaking of facts, there was alot of BS in this thread recently. Lets return to facts shall we?
mustang19 wrote:I dont know if this has been said but wind and solar dont actually... work. Say steel costs 1mwh per ton, and glass costs 100x more. A 40 ton 1gwh per year turbine costs 5gwh.
In less than a year a wind turbine will pay back it's entire lifetime energy costs:
the entire lifecycle consumption of energy for a 2 MW wind turbine is equivalent to 3,625 megawatt hours (MWh) of electricity: an amount of electricity sufficient to power 300 average American homes. Their analysis further noted that a standard 2 MW wind turbine would generate 5,650 MWh of electricity annually and consequently would have an energy payback of 7.7 months.
However their calculations assumed a relatively low wind speed – specifically an average turbine capacity factor of 29%. While this is more usual in the lower wind speed European environment; average U.S. capacity factors are higher. For turbines installed in the U.S. in 2014-2015, the average capacity factor achieved in 2016 was 42.5%. If one uses this higher number, a 2 MW machine would generate 7,450 MWh of electricity annually. In other words it would achieve energy payback in less than 6 months.
Energy Paybackmustang19 wrote:The high eroi estimates for wind assume blades are long lived, but we know from landfills they arent.
Taking pictures of garbage is really not the best way to get the lifespan of a wind turbine blade. Better to use facts. And the facts say these blades last 20-25 years:
How Long do Wind Turbines Last?
A good quality, modern wind turbine will generally last for 20 years, although this can be extended to 25 years or longer depending on environmental factors and the correct maintenance procedures being followed.
HOW LONG DO WIND TURBINES LAST?mustang19 wrote:Since 2000, wind prices have simply tracked oil. Prices doubled 2000-07 for both. So there doesnt seem to be even a monetary way that wind would replace natural gas, oil etc.
No they haven't, not even close. Wind prices have been steadily falling since 1980. Oil prices were all over the price since 1980. Falls in the 80s, a spike in 1990(no spike there for wind) followed by more falls. Oil spikes again in 2008, followed by a fall in 2009. Wind on the other hand saw prices rise in 2009. Then oil started rising again and hit high levels again around 2010-2014. Wind on the other hand fell during this period.
mustang19 wrote:Polysilicon follows the same pattern, for solar.
Again, no. There was a huge increase in Polysilicon prices between 2005 and 2008. But this was because of a shortage of polysilicon. Up until this point, the electronics industry was the main customer of polysilicon. However during this time period there was a huge increase in demand because of solar PV panels. This let to a shortage of supply. High demand and low supply = high prices. However this huge increase in demand also caused a huge buildout of new polysilicon factories in China with greatly increased capacity. This caused prices to crash around 2008-2009. Oil spiked up again around 2010-2014. There is no such spike like that for polysilicon. There is a slight increase on 2011, but from 2012-2014 prices fell to even lower than they were in 2009-2010. There was no corresponding fall in price for oil during this period. I covered all of this polysilicon price activity in previous posts:
kublikhan wrote:Not to go too far off topic, but it reminds me a bit of what happened with polysilicon a decade ago. Climbing demand causes polysilicon prices to rise. Rising prices mean climbing profit margins for producers. High profit margins invite competition and new supply. A surge of new supply causes prices to fall. Weaker producers fall into bankruptcy.
2006 - Market observers reckon that profit margins for producers of high-purity polysilicon are now around 50 percent.
High margins attract new entrants
That‘s exactly why Tom Werner believes that capitalism will come into effect. High margins attract new entrants. No less than half a dozen new projects have been announced in China in the past few months, most with a capacity of 3,000 MT and more. The large, established silicon producers have now realised that the photovoltaic industry is growing into their most important customer. By 2007 at the latest, silicon consumption in the solar sector will exceed that of the semiconductor industry for the first time.
Polysilicon Market Survey2016 - Polysilicon companies saw amazing amount of profits during 2008-2011, as prices of polysilicon shot up to $400/kg resulting in profit margins of 90%. This led to capacity expansion as majority was lured by high profitability. However, by the end of 2011, there was an oversupply when compared to the demand for solar panels. This led to prices crashing to $20-25/kg, while cost for smaller companies remained at $40-50/kg, resulting in bankruptcies of a number of polysilicon companies. Bigger producers were still able to breakeven given their low cost of production. Currently, there is a situation where prices of polysilicon is close to the costs.
The Polysilicon Industry Is Witnessing Interesting Times
The Ethane Threadmustang19 wrote:I appreciate your concerns but in any case, solar is already used. It is photosynthesis. Using solar for solar sort of defeats the purpose. Even in the desert, if there is groundwater production can occur. Solar is virtually never sensible over alternate uses of the land. And the places which lack people usually lack resources anyway.
I guess you never heard of rooftop solar?
The oil barrel is half-full.