Doly wrote:Of course electric cars are out and about.
They're not just out and about, but on an exponential curve.
The costs are coming down soon.
The LIFETIME cost of an EV will soon be cheaper than the lifetime cost of ICE cars.
But the question then becomes: where is the electricity going to come from?
First, this is a question we'd ask from a climate point of view and yes it is important.
Second, from a peak oil point of view - who the heck cares? They're not relying on the holy of holies - oil - as a form of transport! But this is of course anathema to a peak oil doomer. It isn't. Supposed. To. Be. Viable. Full stop. But that exponential curve is away - and even Toyota the diehard hydrogen wannabes have finally capitulated and said they will be putting $60 BILLION into their new EV fleet ASAP.
Sure, enthusiastic people keep going on about how easy and possible is the energy transition away from fossil fuels.
You got the point from the above? Cars that go - without oil? Good. Just checking. Then are you telling us that these cars are fussy about what electrons they drink? They're gonna vomit if they get solar from someone's rooftop, hydropower from the local pumped hydro battery, or even electrons from the local neighbourhood battery charger because these guys really want to charge then and there - even if it's a bit more expensive?
Transport energy just became fungible - and with VTG tech you can even pass it forward if you don't want it now. One day we might share our transport energy if we only need say 60km the next day - and can sell the other 200km for profit.
But it keeps not happening very fast
Yes and no.
Globally, renewables are now being built
faster than fossil fuels.
I did some work on trying to model the energy transition, and it was pretty clear that there was never any guarantee of it working out.
Except, as I noted above, that target keeps moving. Solar is a quarter the cost of gas peakers - and should drop even further. That means you can built multiples of the grid out in solar and use the excess to pump water up hill.
Off-river pumped hydro batteries are possible. America has
100 times the potential
off-river pumped hydro storage than you'd need to stabilise your grid. 100 times! Choose the best 1%, build the dams, pump the water in from a nearby river, cover with plastic or floating solar farms (which helps the solar panels remain cool and operate more efficiently) and studies show it might even reduce evaporation to the point where local rainfall tops up the artificial dam.
The problem was, in a business-as-usual scenario, the way that energy transitions appear to have happened so far, it didn't look likely to happen.
Not sure what this sentence even means in an 'electrify everything' world that is going to see modern grids with 6 TIMES the electricity on them because everything from transport to home heating is being electrified.
And we haven't seen the sort of dramatic policy decisions that would indicate that we aren't going for a business-as-usual scenario.
But we have seen market decisions such as more renewables being built globally every year than fossil fuels. We are seeing younger people more likely to recognise climate change as a thing than older people. Those sceptical diehards are dying. Things are changing - and so fast - even an old EcoModernist nuclear fan like me is starting to question whether nukes will even be needed!
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/